American Tower Corporation
AMT - NYSE - $181.61 ▼ -%0.60
-
Earnings Tue 4 Aug

American opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

4 analysts' median target is $208[FMP target], stock is $182, +14.5% upside potential. After Q1 +15.0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -0.1%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
HOLD Council 3/6 - Moonshot 57

B = MoonshotScore 57[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q1 consensus: revenue $2.7B[FMP est], EPS $1.56[FMP est]. 3 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.56 EPS Estimate Last year $1.84 - -40% YoY YoY
3 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 3 quarters

Q1 EPS +15.0% beat[FMP] but the stock -0.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Rod Smith promised $449.5M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Rod Smith capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

85% Risk Indicator

Capex Developed Markets

capex_developed_markets

American Tower expects to spend approximately 85% of its discretionary capital within its developed markets platforms.

"We continue to expect to spend approximately 85% of our discretionary capital within our developed markets platforms, including over $700 million in success-based investments in our data center portfolio to replenish elevated levels of capacity, purchases of land beneath our tower sites and continued acceleration in European new builds, with over 700 new sites planned."

- Rodney Smith, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
4% Investor Focus

Organic Tenant Billings Growth

organic_tenant_billings_growth

American Tower expects approximately 4% organic tenant billings growth across its global tower portfolio.

"First, driving durable revenue growth, including approximately 4% organic tenant billings growth across our global tower portfolio, but adjusting for onetime disrelated impacts and double-digit growth from our data center business."

- Steven Vondran, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
17% Investor Focus

Data Center Growth

data_center_growth

Data center revenues at CoreSite grew approximately 17% driven by demand for hybrid and multi-cloud installations and accelerating AI-related use cases.

"This double-digit growth was driven by robust demand for hybrid and multi-cloud installations, accelerating AI-related use cases and an inflection in interconnection activity."

- Rodney Smith, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
5% Investor Focus

Fy26 Revenue Growth

fy26_revenue_growth

American Tower set its adjusted revenue growth outlook at approximately 5%.

"Normalized for the impact of onetime DISH-related churn, our outlook implies approximately 5% growth on a cash FX-neutral basis."

- Rodney Smith, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
2026 Investor Focus

Dish Churn Impact

dish_churn_impact

American Tower stated that the higher churn in 2026 is driven by a combination of delayed churn initially expected in 2025 and accelerated churn initially expected in 2027.

"As discussed last quarter, the higher churn in 2026 is driven by a combination of delayed churn initially expected in 2025 and accelerated churn initially expected in 2027."

- Rodney Smith, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 57 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth2.0Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+4.2%)
Gross Margin7.0Q1: very high margin (73.9%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage4.0op margin very strong (42.4%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($1.0B, 2.1x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 55.1 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment7.0strong buy consensus (72%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +14.5%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 55
Klarman value - target upside +14.5%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +14.5%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
55.1 RSI 55.1 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+0.80 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$180 stock 0.8% above - short-term support
200d MA
$187 stock 3.0% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-34% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$208
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$182
Pre-earnings position
Support
$159
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$159-$208 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

American's last 8 quarters: 3 consecutive beats.

MISS
Q2 FY25
$2.60 vs $2.60 est - -2.8%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.78 vs $2.62 est - -2.0%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.75 vs $1.48 est - -4.1%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.84 vs $1.60 est - -0.1%

Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $1.84 vs $1.60 est[FMP], +15.0% beat. D+1 movement: -0.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.51 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $1.84 vs $1.60 beat[FMP], stock -0.1% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $449.5M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 42.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $1.56 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.56[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $208[FMP target]; high target $255[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.56 + CapEx < $449.5M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.56[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $449.5M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $182[FMP] and median $208[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.51 or CapEx >= $449.5M
Threshold: EPS < $1.51[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $182 below SMA200 $187[FMP], if rejection continues, $159[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 4 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$208
12-month median target price (+14.5% upside potential)
18
BUY
7
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$159
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$180 - 50-day MA (above, +0.8%)
$187 - 200-day MA (below, -3.0%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - AMT Q1 FY27
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $1.56[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $449.5M"[Rod Smith]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).

3 subscriptions. 1 platform.

Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts

Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing

Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.

Try Pro free for 14 days AMT dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Aug 4, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Aug 5, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 18, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Nov 4, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the AMT earnings preview cover?

This AMT (AMT) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in AMT earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.