9 analysts' median target is $164[FMP target], stock is $123, +33.4% upside potential. After Q1 +-6.1% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +0.8%.
D+ = MoonshotScore 54[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $1.3B[FMP est], EPS $1.33[FMP est]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +-6.1% beat[FMP] but the stock +0.8% D+1[FMP D+1]. Jarrod Morgan Phillips promised $15.8M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Jarrod Morgan Phillips capex transcript].
Watchlist
Aum Growth
aum_growth
Ares Management Corporation reported an 18% year-over-year increase in AUM, reaching $644 billion.
"Our AUM increased 18% year-over-year to 644 billion dollars, and our fee-paying AUM increased 19% to 400 billion dollars."
- Michael J. Arougheti, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Fre Margin Expansion
fre_margin_expansion
Ares Management Corporation anticipates continued FRE margin expansion and expects to be within the upper end of its 0 to 150 basis points annual target this year.
"We anticipate continued FRE margin expansion and we expect to be within the upper end of our 0 to 150 basis points annual target this year."
- Jarrod Morgan Phillips, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Wealth Aum Growth
wealth_aum_growth
Ares Management Corporation's Wealth AUM increased 54% year-over-year to $68 billion.
"On a year-over-year basis, our Wealth AUM increased 54% to 68 billion dollars."
- Michael J. Arougheti, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Fundraising Success
fundraising_success
Ares Management Corporation raised a record $30 billion of gross capital in Q1 2026.
"In fact, we are on track for another record year of fundraising as we raised 30 billion dollars of gross capital in Q1, which is our highest ever first quarter, and that is up 46% compared to last year’s record first quarter."
- Michael J. Arougheti, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Alternative Credit Fund
alternative_credit_fund
Ares Management Corporation's third vintage of its Alternative Credit fund is experiencing strong demand well in excess of its $6.5 billion target and is expected to close in the second quarter.
"In January, we launched the third vintage of our Alternative Credit fund with a target of 6.5 billion dollars. Our prior Alternative Credit fund totaled 6.6 billion dollars in capital, and the current fund is experiencing strong demand from existing and new institutional investors well in excess of the target. We expect to complete the fundraise in the second quarter at its hard cap as the fund is already meaningfully oversubscribed."
- Michael J. Arougheti, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Asoiii Final Close
asoiii_final_close
Ares Management Corporation's latest opportunistic credit fund, ASOF III, closed with over $8.3 billion of equity commitments.
"In the first quarter, we held the final close for ASOF III, our latest opportunistic credit fund, raising over 8.3 billion dollars of equity commitments and nearly 10 billion dollars including related transaction vehicles."
- Michael J. Arougheti, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (May 1, 2026): EPS $1.24 vs $1.32 est[FMP], +-6.1% beat. D+1 movement: +0.8%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $1.24 vs $1.32 beat[FMP], stock +0.8% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $15.8M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 23.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.33[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $15.8M"[Jarrod Morgan Phillips]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This ARES (ARES) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.