10 analysts' median target is $690[FMP target], stock is $404, +71.0% upside potential. After Q1 +0.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +10.6%.
B- = MoonshotScore 50[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $876.1M[FMP est], EPS $1.86[FMP est]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +0.6% beat[FMP] but the stock +10.6% D+1[FMP D+1]. Brittany Bagley promised $23.1M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Brittany Bagley capex transcript].
Watchlist
Fy26 Revenue Guidance
fy26_revenue_guidance
The company is raising its revenue guidance for 2026 to a range of 30% to 32% growth, driven by strong Q1 results and momentum in the pipeline.
"Given these trends, our strong Q1 results and the momentum we are seeing in our pipeline, we're well positioned to deliver on our top line expectations and are raising our revenue guidance for the year to a range of 30% to 32% growth."
- Brittany Bagley - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
International Growth
international_growth
International revenue was up over 100% year-over-year and represented 20% of revenue for the quarter.
"International revenue was up over 100% year-over-year as we delivered on the bookings momentum we highlighted last year and it represented 20% of our revenue for the quarter."
- Brittany Bagley - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
Free Cash Flow Guidance
free_cash_flow_guidance
The company expects to deliver approximately $450 million of free cash flow full year in 2026, even with continued investments in inventory.
"Even with these investments, we expect free cash flow conversion to improve meaningfully and expect to deliver approximately $450 million of free cash flow full year in 2026."
- Brittany Bagley - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
Dedrone Growth
dedrone_growth
Dedrone's growth is exceeding aggressive assumptions, with rising demand seen across all markets.
"Dedrone, our counter drone business is scaling beyond our most aggressive assumptions. Bookings are up 500% year-over-year, and we are continuing to see rising demand."
- Joshua Isner - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
Ai Era Plan Adoption
ai_era_plan_adoption
Adoption of the AI Era Plan is rapidly increasing, with large-scale agencies viewing AI as a core capability.
"AI bookings were up 140% versus Q1 last year and we are seeing AI move from early interest to a standard part of how large agencies think about their future technology stack."
- Joshua Isner - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
Enterprise Expansion
enterprise_expansion
Axon closed a $40 million deal with a major telecom provider using Fusus, continuing its expansion in the enterprise market.
"After a 50% year-over-year Q1 in April, our team closed a $40 million opportunity with one of the largest telecom providers in the world. The deployment centers around Fusus, which continues to garner interest and drive growth in this segment, along with Axon Body Mini and Axon Outpost."
- Joshua Isner - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and News Sentiment strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (May 6, 2026): EPS $1.61 vs $1.60 est[FMP], +0.6% beat. D+1 movement: +10.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $1.61 vs $1.60 beat[FMP], stock +10.6% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $23.1M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 3.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Monday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Monday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $1.86[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $23.1M"[Brittany Bagley]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This AXON (AXON) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.