AutoZone, Inc.
AZO - NYSE - $3072.64 ▲ +%2.07
-
Earnings
Tue 22 Sep
AutoZone opens the
books on Tuesday evening.
9 analysts' median target is $3909[FMP target], stock is $3073, +27.2% upside potential. After Q3 +5.1% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -2.3%.
↓
summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B-
BUY
Council 3/6
-
Moonshot 46
B- = MoonshotScore 46[multi-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $6.7B[FMP est], EPS $54.51[FMP est]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
$54.51
EPS Estimate
Last year $31.04 - +12% YoY YoY
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Primary Segment Guidance
Previous quarter was 0%
2
Beat Streak
Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 2 quarters
Q3 EPS +5.1% beat[FMP] but the stock -2.3% D+1[FMP D+1]. Philip Daniele promised $345.5M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q3 earnings call[Philip Daniele capex transcript].
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?
MoonshotScore
46 / 100
multi-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and News Sentiment strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0
Q3 vs Q4: growth negative (-22.5%, contraction)
Gross Margin5.0
Q3: high margin (52.2%)
Operating Leverage2.0
op margin healthy (19.1%)
Cash Runway9.0
FCF strong ($0.5B FCF, covers CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0
low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0
RSI 47.1 balanced, 50d below
News Sentiment9.0
strong buy consensus (85%)
Council Score
3 / 6 Bullish
6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).
How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +27.2%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 47
Klarman value - target upside +27.2%
Buffett quality - ROE score 1/5
Munger valuation - target upside +27.2%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued
Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->
Interest CoverageAdequate
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning
What levels is the stock being tested at?
RSI(14)
47.1
RSI 47.1 balanced, 50d below
MACD
-4.40
price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$3215
stock 4.4% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$3567
stock 13.9% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-52%
decrease - low participation
Resistance
$3909
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$3073
Pre-earnings position
Support
$3032
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$3032-$3909 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger
Past Performance
AutoZone,'s last 8 quarters: 2 consecutive beats.
MISS
Q4 FY25
$48.71 vs $50.73 est - +1.4%
MISS
Q1 FY26
$31.04 vs $32.75 est - -2.2%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$27.63 vs $27.15 est - +2.2%
BEAT
Q3 FY26
$38.07 vs $36.22 est - -2.3%
Q3 (May 26, 2026): EPS $38.07 vs $36.22 est[FMP], +5.1% beat. D+1 movement: -2.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Three scenarios: what could happen?
EPS < $52.87 (no guidance)
Q3: EPS $38.07 vs $36.22 beat[FMP], stock -2.3% D+1[FMP].
Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q3 earnings call.
Insider trading signal
Form 4 data is marked in the table - this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
Our FMP plan does not provide Form 4 insider feed for this stock. This page does not generate assumptions - SEC EDGAR Form 4 can be monitored directly.
CapEx shock
Q3 CapEx $345.5M[FMP cashflow]. Q3 op margin 19.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Framework - Position discipline
After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $54.51 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $54.51[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $3909[FMP target]; high target $4800[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $54.51 + CapEx < $345.5M
Threshold: EPS approx $54.51[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $345.5M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $3073[FMP] and median $3909[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $52.87 or CapEx >= $345.5M
Threshold: EPS < $52.87[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $3073 below SMA200 $3567[FMP], if rejection continues, $3032[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.
Market Outlook
What do 9 analysts say?
Wall Street Consensus
$3909
12-month median target price (+27.2% upside potential)
Risk Management
$3032
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$3215 - 50-day MA (below, -4.4%)
$3567 - 200-day MA (below, -13.9%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - AZO Q1 FY27
B-
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $54.51[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $345.5M. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison
Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
3 subscriptions. 1 platform.
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Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look
Sep 22, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Sep 23, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Nov 6, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Dec 23, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the AZO earnings preview cover?
This AutoZone, Inc. retails and distributes automotive replacement parts and accessories. The company (AZO) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
What should investors watch for in AZO earnings?
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Where do the numbers on this page come from?
Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
Is this a buy or sell recommendation?
No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.