2 analysts' median target is $130[FMP target], stock is $125, +4.0% upside potential. After Q1 +88.7% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +0.6%.
B- = MoonshotScore 49[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $23.4B[FMP est], EPS $1.98[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +88.7% beat[FMP] but the stock +0.6% D+1[FMP D+1]. John Neppl promised $336.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[John Neppl capex transcript].
Watchlist
Fy26 Eps Guidance
fy26_eps_guidance
Bunge is increasing its full year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance from $7.50-$8.00 to $9.00-$9.50.
"Based on what we can see today, including the strength of Q1 and the forward curves as we look at the balance of the year, we are increasing our full year adjusted EPS guidance range to $9 to $9.50, and that's up from the $7.50 to $8 we provided on our fourth quarter call."
- Gregory Heckman, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Net Interest Expense Guidance
net_interest_expense_guidance
Bunge now expects net interest expense in the range of $620 million to $660 million for 2026, which is up from its previous range of $575 million to $625 million.
"Net interest expense in the range of $620 million to $660 million, which is up from our previous range of $575 million to $625 million, primarily due to higher short-term debt levels supporting an expected increase in working capital."
- John Neppl, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Capex Guidance
capex_guidance
Bunge expects capital expenditures in the range of $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion for 2026.
"Capital expenditures in the range of $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion and depreciation and amortization of approximately $975 million."
- John Neppl, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Tropical Oils Specialty Ingredients Grain Merchandising Milling
tropical_oils_specialty_ingredients_grain_merchandising_milling
Bunge expects Tropical Oils and Specialty Ingredients and Grain Merchandising and Milling segment results to be lower for full year 2026.
"Tropical Oils and Specialty Ingredients and Grain Merchandising and Milling segment results are expected to be lower and corporate and other results are expected to be in line."
- John Neppl, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Soybean Softseed Processing Refining
soybean_softseed_processing_refining
Bunge expects Soybean and Softseed Processing and Refining segment results to be higher for full year 2026.
"For the full year compared to our previous outlook, Soybean and Softseed Processing and Refining segment results are forecasted to be higher."
- John Neppl, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Viterra Synergies
viterra_synergies
Bunge notes that Viterra cost synergies are running ahead of plan, and they've identified significant network and commercial opportunities.
"Viterra cost synergies are running ahead of plan, and we've identified significant network and commercial opportunities."
- Gregory Heckman, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Price Momentum strong. Gross Margin weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin), 0 bearish (none), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $1.83 vs $0.97 est[FMP], +88.7% beat. D+1 movement: +0.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $1.83 vs $0.97 beat[FMP], stock +0.6% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $336.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 5.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.98[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $336.0M"[John Neppl]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This BG (BG) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.