11 analysts' median target is $785[FMP target], stock is $890, -11.8% upside potential. After Q1 +19.1% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -0.0%.
B = MoonshotScore 44[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $18.8B[FMP est], EPS $6.03[FMP est]. 3 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +19.1% beat[FMP] but the stock -0.0% D+1[FMP D+1]. Andrew Bonfield promised $323.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Andrew Bonfield capex transcript].
Watchlist
Sales Growth Target
sales_growth_target
Caterpillar now expects the compound annual growth rate for total enterprise sales and revenues to be between 6% and 9% between within '24 to 2030.
"We now expect the compound annual growth rate for total enterprise sales and revenues to be between 6% and 9% between within '24 to 2030."
- Joseph Creed, Chairman and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Backlog Growth
backlog_growth
Caterpillar's backlog grew to a record level, up 79% compared to the first quarter last year.
"Backlog grew to a record level of $63 billion, an increase of $28 billion or 79% compared to the first quarter last year."
- Joseph Creed, Chairman and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Capex Increase
capex_increase
MP&E capital expenditures are expected to average between 4% and 5% MP&E sales through 2030.
"As a result, MP&E capital expenditures are expected to average between 4% and 5% MP&E sales through 2030."
- Joseph Creed, Chairman and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Power Generation Growth
power_generation_growth
Power generation grew 48%, driven by strong demand for large gensets and turbines used in data center applications.
"Power generation grew 48%, driven by strong demand for large gensets and turbines used in data center applications with an increasing mix towards prime power."
- Joseph Creed, Chairman and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Data Center Agreement
data_center_agreement
Caterpillar announced a new agreement to provide up to 2.1 gigawatts of large gas generator sets for prime power generation in support of data center, oil and gas and industrial applications.
"Yesterday, we announced another exciting opportunity to provide Pro Power up to 2.1 gigawatts of large gas generator sets for prime power generation in support of data center, oil and gas and industrial applications."
- Joseph Creed, Chairman and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Reciprocating Engine Capacity Increase
reciprocating_engine_capacity_increase
Caterpillar is increasing its large reciprocating engine capacity from 2x 2024 levels to nearly 3x 2024 levels.
"As a result of these trends, I'm excited to announce that we are increasing our large reciprocating engine capacity from 2x 2024 levels to nearly 3x 2024 levels."
- Joseph Creed, Chairman and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ken Griffin, Buffett), 3 bearish (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger), 1 neutral (Ray Dalio).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, but price is high.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $5.54 vs $4.65 est[FMP], +19.1% beat. D+1 movement: -0.0%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $5.54 vs $4.65 beat[FMP], stock -0.0% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $323.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 17.7%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $6.03[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $323.0M"[Andrew Bonfield]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This CAT (CAT) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.