10 analysts' median target is $361[FMP target], stock is $240, +50.6% upside potential. After Q1 +7.9% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -2.0%.
B+ = MoonshotScore 50[multi-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $7.9B[FMP est], EPS $2.41[FMP est]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +7.9% beat[FMP] but the stock -2.0% D+1[FMP D+1]. Shane Smith promised $1.3B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Shane Smith capex transcript].
Watchlist
Long Term Eps Growth
long_term_eps_growth
Constellation Energy projects a compelling long-term outlook with a base earnings growth rate exceeding 20% through 2029 and a rolling 10%+ base EPS growth rate thereafter.
"First and foremost, I want to remind you that our long-term outlook is compelling with a base earnings growth rate that exceeds 20% through 2029, anchored by highly visible drivers that include the nuclear production tax credit, which grows with inflation, long-term contracts with high-quality counterparties and durable customer margins supported by the nation's largest commercial and industrial retail platform. We also have conviction that we could grow the business at a long-term rolling 10% plus base EPS growth rate, which we see as a common characteristic of high-quality and well-valued companies."
- Joseph Dominguez, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 11, 2026
Free Cash Flow Outlook
free_cash_flow_outlook
The company forecasts significant free cash flow before growth, expecting $8.4 billion for 2026-2027 and $11.5 billion to $13 billion for 2028-2029, providing substantial capital for deployment.
"Much like the strong EPS growth, we see similar growth in our free cash flow outlook with the '26, '27 period producing a forecasted $8.4 billion and the '28-'29 period rising to $11.5 billion to $13 billion before the levers I just mentioned."
- Joseph Dominguez, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 11, 2026
Fy26 Earnings Guidance
fy26_earnings_guidance
Constellation Energy affirms its full-year adjusted operating earnings guidance range of $11 to $12 per share for 2026, reflecting confidence in current performance and future outlook.
"Based on our performance year-to-date and our outlook for the remainder of the year, we are affirming our full year adjusted operating earnings guidance range of $11 to $12 per share."
- Joseph Dominguez, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 11, 2026
Share Repurchase
share_repurchase
Constellation Energy repurchased approximately 1.2 million shares for $335 million at an average price of roughly $285 per share, underscoring confidence in the business's long-term value.
"Over the past few weeks, we have successfully repurchased approximately 1.2 million shares at an average price of roughly $285 per share for a total of $335 million of purchases."
- Joseph Dominguez, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 11, 2026
Pjm Regulatory Data Centers
pjm_regulatory_data_centers
PJM is accelerating regulatory clarity for large load customer growth, including data centers, with a proposed timeline for FERC submission in June, while hyperscaler demand for power remains strong.
"PJM has established a proposed time line for providing clarity on when it expects to vote on the final framework with the goal of submitting the proposal to FERC in June. Frankly, this is faster than we had hoped. And having this defined time line and a pathway to final rules will provide greater certainty for market participants as they plan and invest. ... One point that has remained clear is that demand for additional compute and by extension, additional power, has not slowed from hyperscaler customers."
- Joseph Dominguez, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 11, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
multi-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and News Sentiment strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (May 11, 2026): EPS $2.74 vs $2.54 est[FMP], +7.9% beat. D+1 movement: -2.0%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $2.74 vs $2.54 beat[FMP], stock -2.0% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $1.3B[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 20.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $2.41[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $1.3B"[Shane Smith]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.