5 analysts' median target is $406[FMP target], stock is $308, +31.9% upside potential. After Q4 +0.9% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +4.2%.
B+ = MoonshotScore 44[9-pillar formula] + Council 5/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $8.5B[FMP est], EPS $2.43[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q4 EPS +0.9% beat[FMP] but the stock +4.2% D+1[FMP D+1]. Shane Smith promised $986.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Shane Smith capex transcript].
Watchlist
3.9B Growth Projects
3.9B_growth_projects
We are reinvesting $3.9 billion in growth projects that deliver compelling returns of at least 10% on an unlevered basis.
"I'm also excited to share that we are increasing our share repurchase authorization to $5 billion, enabled by our strong balance sheet and significant free cash flow while still growing our dividend and reinvesting $3.9 billion in growth projects that deliver compelling returns of at least 10% on an unlevered basis."
- Shane Smith, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 31, 2026
2026 Eps Guidance
2026_eps_guidance
We are initiating our 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance at $11 per share to $12 per share.
"Beginning on Slide 20, we are initiating our 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance at $11 per share to $12 per share."
- Shane Smith, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 31, 2026
Available Clean Output
available_clean_output
Constellation still has about 147 million megawatt-hours available for contracting, an opportunity no one else can match.
"But even after that, we still have about 147 million megawatt-hours available for contracting, an opportunity no one else can match."
- Joseph Dominguez, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 31, 2026
20pct Cagr Through 2029
20pct_cagr_through_2029
Constellation is targeting a 20% CAGR on base earnings growth through 2029.
"Today, Shane and I intend to do more than provide 2026 guidance. We're going to provide a longer-term and more comprehensive update on the business, describe what makes Constellation special and explain why we think Constellation has unmatched opportunities to grow, beginning with a 20% CAGR on base earnings growth through 2029."
- Joseph Dominguez, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 31, 2026
Long Term Contracts Executed
long_term_contracts_executed
Constellation and Calpine have executed deals for over 10,000 megawatts of our fleet, serving a wide range of customers.
"So we show here on this slide that Constellation and Calpine have executed deals for over 10,000 megawatts of our fleet, serving a wide range of customers, all at compelling prices that provide the reliability and price visibility our customers are looking for, as well as the revenue certainty that we desire."
- Joseph Dominguez, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 31, 2026
Buyback Increase To 5B
buyback_increase_to_5B
Constellation's Board has approved an increase in our buyback authority to $5 billion, underscoring our confidence in the strategy.
"Today, I'm pleased to share that Constellation's Board has approved an increase in our buyback authority to $5 billion, underscoring our confidence in the strategy."
- Joseph Dominguez, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 31, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 5 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q4 (March 31, 2026): EPS $2.30 vs $2.28 est[FMP], +0.9% beat. D+1 movement: +4.2%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q4: EPS $2.30 vs $2.28 beat[FMP], stock +4.2% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.
Q4 CapEx $986.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 2.7%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Monday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Monday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.43[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $986.0M"[Shane Smith]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This CEG (CEG) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.