Colgate-Palmolive Company
CL - NYSE - $86.36 ▲ +%1.15
-
Earnings Fri 7 Aug

Colgate-Palmolive opens the
books on Friday evening.

9 analysts' median target is $100[FMP target], stock is $86, +15.2% upside potential. After Q1 +2.9% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -2.2%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
BUY Council 2/6 - Moonshot 49

B+ = MoonshotScore 49[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q1 consensus: revenue $5.3B[FMP est], EPS $0.97[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$0.97 EPS Estimate Last year $0.97 - +5% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q1 EPS +2.9% beat[FMP] but the stock -2.2% D+1[FMP D+1]. Stan Sutula promised $138.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Stan Sutula capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

$200 million Investor Focus

2027 2028 Savings Target

2027_2028_savings_target

Colgate-Palmolive updated its strategic growth and productivity program with an annualized savings target of $200 million to $300 million, with the majority of the savings focused in 2027 and 2028.

"This morning, we announced an update along with annualized savings target of $200 million to $300 million, with the majority of the savings focused in 2027 and 2028."

- Noel Wallace - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
- Investor Focus

Emerging Markets Growth

emerging_markets_growth

Colgate-Palmolive expects growth in emerging markets, where its strong global brands generally have higher market shares and scale advantages, and is investing in them accordingly.

"Our sales growth was led by emerging markets, the regions where our strong global brands generally have higher market shares and the greatest scale advantages. We believe emerging markets are accretive in terms of growth prospects and are investing in them accordingly."

- Noel Wallace - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
$110 Investor Focus

Oil Price Assumption

oil_price_assumption

Colgate-Palmolive is assuming oil at roughly $110 a barrel for the remainder of the year, impacting raw material and logistics costs.

"We're assuming oil roughly at around $110."

- Noel Wallace - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
- Investor Focus

North America Strategy Reset

north_america_strategy_reset

Colgate-Palmolive is implementing a strategy reset in North America that includes brand interventions, accelerated innovation, better RGM, and promotion strategies.

"That's going to include some real brand interventions, accelerated innovation, more RGM, better execution, getting our promotion strategy right with some of the key retailers."

- Noel Wallace - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 49 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and News Sentiment strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth2.0Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+4.2%)
Gross Margin6.0Q1: high margin (60.6%)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (21.7%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.6B, 4.4x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 53.1 balanced, 50d below
News Sentiment7.0majority buy (65%)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +15.2%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 53
Klarman value - target upside +15.2%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +15.2%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
53.1 RSI 53.1 balanced, 50d below
MACD
-1.40 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$88 stock 1.4% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$84 stock 3.0% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-71% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$100
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$86
Pre-earnings position
Support
$71
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$71-$100 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Colgate-Palmolive beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$0.92 vs $0.90 est - -0.2%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$0.91 vs $0.89 est - -2.7%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$0.95 vs $0.91 est - +1.8%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$0.97 vs $0.94 est - -2.2%

Q1 (May 1, 2026): EPS $0.97 vs $0.94 est[FMP], +2.9% beat. D+1 movement: -2.2%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $0.94 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $0.97 vs $0.94 beat[FMP], stock -2.2% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $138.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 21.7%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $0.97 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $0.97[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $100[FMP target]; high target $102[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $0.97 + CapEx < $138.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $0.97[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $138.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $86[FMP] and median $100[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $0.94 or CapEx >= $138.0M
Threshold: EPS < $0.94[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $86 below SMA200 $84[FMP], if rejection continues, $71[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 9 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$100
12-month median target price (+15.2% upside potential)
13
BUY
7
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$71
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$88 - 50-day MA (below, -1.4%)
$84 - 200-day MA (above, +3.0%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - CL Q1 FY27
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Friday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Friday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $0.97[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $138.0M"[Stan Sutula]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Aug 7, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Aug 8, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 21, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Nov 7, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the CL earnings preview cover?

This CL (CL) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in CL earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.