6 analysts' median target is $270[FMP target], stock is $192, +40.7% upside potential. After Q1 +-1.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.5%.
B = MoonshotScore 63[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $15.7B[FMP est], EPS $4.79[FMP est]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +-1.8% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.5% D+1[FMP D+1]. Andrew Young promised $1.1B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Andrew Young capex transcript].
Watchlist
Domestic Card Purchase Volume Growth
domestic_card_purchase_volume_growth
Domestic card purchase volume growth was 40% driven by the addition of Discover, while excluding Discover, growth was about 8%.
"Year-over-year purchase volume growth for the quarter was 40% driven primarily by the addition of Discover purchase as well as continued strong growth in our heavy spender franchise. Excluding Discover year-over-year purchase volume growth was about 8%."
- Richard Fairbank, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
Domestic Card Loan Balance Growth
domestic_card_loan_balance_growth
Ending loan balances increased 69% year-over-year, also largely as a result of adding Discover card loans. Excluding Discover, ending loans grew about 3.9% year-over-year.
"Ending loan balances increased 69% year-over-year, also largely as a result of adding Discover card loans. Excluding Discover, ending loans grew about 3.9% year-over-year."
- Richard Fairbank, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
Domestic Card Revenue Growth
domestic_card_revenue_growth
Revenue was up about from the first quarter of 2025, largely driven by the addition of Discover revenue. Excluding Discover, year-over-year revenue growth was about 6.8% driven by underlying growth in purchase volume and loans.
"Revenue was up about from the first quarter of 2025, largely driven by the addition of Discover revenue. Excluding Discover, year-over-year revenue growth was about 6.8% driven by underlying growth in purchase volume and loans."
- Richard Fairbank, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
Consumer Banking Deposit Growth
consumer_banking_deposit_growth
Compared to the year ago quarter, ending consumer deposits grew about 35%, driven largely by the addition of Discover deposits.
"Compared to the year ago quarter, ending consumer deposits grew about 35%, driven largely by the addition of Discover deposits."
- Richard Fairbank, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
Domestic Card Charge Off Rate Improvement
domestic_card_charge_off_rate_improvement
The domestic card charge-off rate for the first quarter was 5.1%, up 17 basis points from the prior quarter, in line with normal seasonality. The charge-off rate improved by 109 basis points year-over-year. About half of this improvement is the result of incorporating Discover's card portfolio into our domestic card business.
"The domestic card charge-off rate for the first quarter was 5.1%, up 17 basis points from the prior quarter, in line with normal seasonality. The charge-off rate improved by 109 basis points year-over-year. About half of this improvement is the result of incorporating Discover's card portfolio into our domestic card business."
- Richard Fairbank, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
Domestic Card Delinquency Rate Improvement
domestic_card_delinquency_rate_improvement
Our domestic card delinquency rate was 3.7%, down 29 basis points from the prior quarter and down 55 basis points from a year ago.
"Our domestic card delinquency rate was 3.7%, down 29 basis points from the prior quarter and down 55 basis points from a year ago."
- Richard Fairbank, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (April 21, 2026): EPS $4.42 vs $4.50 est[FMP], +-1.8% beat. D+1 movement: -1.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $4.42 vs $4.50 beat[FMP], stock -1.5% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $1.1B[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 14.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $4.79[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $1.1B"[Andrew Young]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This COF (COF) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.