4 analysts' median target is $235[FMP target], stock is $336, -30.0% upside potential. After Q2 +6.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -0.8%.
B- = MoonshotScore 51[9-pillar formula] + Council 1/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $1.8B[FMP est], EPS $1.41[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q2 EPS +6.6% beat[FMP] but the stock -0.8% D+1[FMP D+1]. Sherri Luther promised $153.6M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Sherri Luther capex transcript].
Watchlist
FY27 Revenue Growth
FY27_revenue_growth
Coherent expects both fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 to be strong growth years for Coherent, given our exceptional demand from our customers and the rapid expansion of our production capacity.
"In summary, we delivered strong revenue and EPS growth in Q2 and expect both fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 to be strong growth years for Coherent, given our exceptional demand from our customers and the rapid expansion of our production capacity."
- James Anderson, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
Datacenter Segment Growth
datacenter_segment_growth
Coherent's data center business revenue grew by 14% sequentially and 36% year-over-year in Q2, with double-digit sequential growth expected in both the March and June quarters.
"In our data center business, we drove a substantial acceleration in our sequential growth rate, with Q2 revenue growing 14% sequentially and 36% year over year."
- James Anderson, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
Data Center Growth
data_center_growth
Coherent anticipates sustained strong revenue growth in the coming quarters, driven by robust demand fueled by AI data center growth and increasing production capacity.
"Given the extraordinary strength and visibility of demand from our customers, combined with our continued rapid expansion in production capacity, we expect a period of sustained strong revenue growth over the coming quarters."
- James Anderson, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
Book To Bill Ratio
book_to_bill_ratio
Coherent's data center bookings experienced another step function increase with a book-to-bill ratio that exceeded 4x as customer demand continues to increase and customers place orders further out in time.
"In Q2, we experienced another step function increase in our data center bookings with a book-to-bill ratio that exceeded 4x as customer demand continues to increase and customers place orders further out in time, which provides us with strong visibility for the coming quarters."
- James Anderson, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
Indium Phosphide Production
indium_phosphide_production
Coherent is on track to double its internal indium phosphide production by the fourth quarter, driven by its ramp of six-inch wafer production.
"In Q2, and we are executing on track to our plan to double our internal indium phosphide production by the fourth quarter of this calendar year."
- James Anderson, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
CPO Design Win
CPO_design_win
Coherent recently secured an exceptionally large purchase order from a market-leading AI data center customer for a CPO solution that includes our new high-power CW laser that began sampling last year, with initial revenue expected toward the end of this calendar year.
"In particular, we recently secured an exceptionally large purchase order from a market-leading AI data center customer for a CPO solution that includes our new high-power CW laser that began sampling last year."
- James Anderson, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. R&D Intensity and Price Momentum strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 1 bullish (Ken Griffin), 2 bearish (Klarman, Munger), 3 neutral (Ray Dalio, Jim Simons, Buffett).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, but price is high.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q2 (February 4, 2026): EPS $1.29 vs $1.21 est[FMP], +6.6% beat. D+1 movement: -0.8%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q2: EPS $1.29 vs $1.21 beat[FMP], stock -0.8% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Q2 CapEx $153.6M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 11.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.41[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $153.6M"[Sherri Luther]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This COHR (COHR) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.