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11 analysts' median target is $1100[FMP target], stock is $1050, +4.7% vs the analyst consensus median. After Q2 +0.7% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +1.6%.
B+ = MoonshotScore 44[multi-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Quick AnswerCostco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Q4 consensus: revenue $68.7B[FMP est], EPS $4.95[FMP est]. 4 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q2 EPS +0.7% beat[FMP] but the stock +1.6% D+1[FMP D+1].
Watchlist
Digital Sales Growth
digital_sales_growth
Costco's digital sales have significantly increased, with personalized product recommendation carousels driving over $470 million of e-commerce sales.
"In Q2, our personalized product recommendation carousels drove over $470 million of e-commerce sales, and our newly modernized product display pages are driving incremental sales on our dot-com site as well as increased traffic to our same-day sites."
- Gary Millerchip, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 5, 2026
Capital Expenditure Outlook
capital_expenditure_outlook
Costco estimates CapEx for the full year will be approximately $6.5 billion as they continue to invest in building new warehouses, remodeling existing warehouses, and enhancing the member digital experience.
"We estimate CapEx for the full year will be approximately $6.5 billion as we continue to invest in building a larger pipeline of new warehouses, remodeling our existing warehouses to drive continued growth in high-volume buildings, expanding our depot network to support operations and enhancing the member digital experience."
- Gary Millerchip, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 5, 2026
Membership Fee Increase Impact
membership_fee_increase_impact
Approximately one-third of Costco's membership fee income growth was attributed to the September 2024 U.S. and Canada membership fee increase.
"The September 2024 U.S. and Canada membership fee increase accounted for about 1/3 of our membership income growth."
- Gary Millerchip, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 5, 2026
New Warehouse Openings
new_warehouse_openings
Costco expects to have 28 net new openings in fiscal year '26 and is targeting 30-plus new openings per year in the coming years.
"We currently expect to have 28 net new openings in fiscal year '26 and are targeting 30-plus new openings per year in the coming years."
- Ron Vachris - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 5, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
multi-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and Price Momentum strong. Gross Margin weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q2 (March 5, 2026): EPS $4.58 vs $4.55 est[FMP], +0.7% beat. D+1 movement: +1.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q2: EPS $4.58 vs $4.55 beat[FMP], stock +1.6% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Q2 CapEx $1.3B[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 3.7%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $4.95[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $1.3B". Two anchors, three scenarios.
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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.