12 analysts' median target is $1100[FMP target], stock is $1012, +8.7% upside potential. After Q2 +0.7% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +1.6%.
B = MoonshotScore 44[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $68.7B[FMP est], EPS $4.95[FMP est]. 4 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q2 EPS +0.7% beat[FMP] but the stock +1.6% D+1[FMP D+1]. Gary Millerchip promised $1.3B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Gary Millerchip capex transcript].
Watchlist
Membership Growth
membership_growth
COST ended the quarter with 82.1 million total paid members, up 4.8% versus last year and 147.2 million cardholders, up 4.7% year-over-year.
"We ended the quarter with 82.1 million total paid members, up 4.8% versus last year and 147.2 million cardholders, up 4.7% year-over-year."
- Gary Millerchip, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 5, 2026
Digital Sales Growth
digital_sales_growth
COST's digitally-enabled sales saw personalized product recommendation carousels drive over $470 million of e-commerce sales in the quarter.
"In Q2, our personalized product recommendation carousels drove over $470 million of e-commerce sales, and our newly modernized product display pages are driving incremental sales on our dot-com site as well as increased traffic to our same-day sites."
- Gary Millerchip, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 5, 2026
Membership Renewal Rates
membership_renewal_rates
COST's U.S. and Canada renewal rate was 92.1%, down 10 basis points from last quarter; and the worldwide rate came in at 89.7%, unchanged from last quarter.
"In terms of renewal rates, at Q2 end, our U.S. and Canada renewal rate was 92.1%, down 10 basis points from last quarter; and the worldwide rate came in at 89.7%, unchanged from last quarter."
- Gary Millerchip, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 5, 2026
Kirkland Signature Value
kirkland_signature_value
COST notes that Kirkland Signature (KS) items typically offer 15% to 20% value compared to the national brand alternative with equal or better quality.
"Kirkland Signature remains a top focus to deliver great value for our members with KS items typically offering 15% to 20% value compared to the national brand alternative with equal or better quality."
- Gary Millerchip, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 5, 2026
New Warehouse Openings
new_warehouse_openings
COST expects 28 net new openings in fiscal year '26 and is targeting 30-plus new openings per year in the coming years.
"We currently expect to have 28 net new openings in fiscal year '26 and are targeting 30-plus new openings per year in the coming years."
- Ron Vachris - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 5, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and Price Momentum strong. Gross Margin weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q2 (March 5, 2026): EPS $4.58 vs $4.55 est[FMP], +0.7% beat. D+1 movement: +1.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q2: EPS $4.58 vs $4.55 beat[FMP], stock +1.6% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Q2 CapEx $1.3B[FMP cashflow]. Gary Millerchip Q2 transcript: "Capital expenditure in Q2 was $1.29 billion."[Gary Millerchip transcript]. Q2 op margin 3.7%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
"Capital expenditure in Q2 was $1.29 billion."
- Gary Millerchip, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 5, 2026
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $4.95[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $1.3B"[Gary Millerchip]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This COST (COST) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.