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Cisco Systems, Inc.
CSCO - NASDAQ - $94.30 ▲ +%1.80
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Earnings
Wed 13 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-13 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.
Cisco opens the
books on Wednesday evening.
2 analysts' median target is $98[FMP target], stock is $94, +3.4% vs the analyst consensus median. After Q2 +2.0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -12.3%.
↓
summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A-
HOLD
Council 3/6
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Moonshot 54
A- = MoonshotScore 54[multi-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Quick AnswerCisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
Q4 consensus: revenue $15.5B[FMP est], EPS $1.04[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
$1.04
EPS Estimate
Last year $0.99 - +8% YoY YoY
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Networking Guidance
Previous quarter was 0%
8
Beat Streak
Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters
Q2 EPS +2.0% beat[FMP] but the stock -12.3% D+1[FMP D+1].
$5 billion
Expectation / Guide
Fy26 Ai Revenue Guidance
fy26_ai_revenue_guidance
Cisco now expects to recognize over $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in FY '26.
"Given the strong demand for our Silicon One systems and optics, we now expect to take AI orders in excess of $5 billion and to recognize over $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in FY '26."
- Charles Robbins - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
Product Orders Growth
product_orders_growth
Overall, total product orders grew 18% year-over-year
"Overall, total product orders grew 18% year-over-year, even on top of double-digit growth in Q2 fiscal year '25."
- Charles Robbins - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
2.1 billion
Investor Focus
Ai Infrastructure Orders
ai_infrastructure_orders
AI infrastructure orders taken from hyperscalers totaled $2.1 billion in Q2.
"AI infrastructure orders taken from hyperscalers totaled $2.1 billion in Q2 compared to $1.3 billion just last quarter and equal to the total orders taken in all of fiscal year '25, marking another significant acceleration in growth across our silicon, systems and optics."
- Charles Robbins - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
Enterprise Product Orders
enterprise_product_orders
Enterprise product orders were up 8% year-over-year in Q2 with strength across our entire networking portfolio.
"Enterprise product orders were up 8% year-over-year in Q2 with strength across our entire networking portfolio."
- Charles Robbins - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
1 millionth
Investor Focus
Silicon One Deployment
silicon_one_deployment
We shipped our 1 millionth Silicon One chip in Q2 and plan to deploy our Silicon One architecture across our high-performance networking systems by fiscal year '29.
"We shipped our 1 millionth Silicon One chip in Q2 and plan to deploy our Silicon One architecture across our high-performance networking systems by fiscal year '29."
- Charles Robbins - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
Public Sector Orders
public_sector_orders
Public sector orders were up 11% year-over-year with double-digit growth across all geographies.
"Public sector orders were up 11% year-over-year with double-digit growth across all geographies."
- Charles Robbins - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?
MoonshotScore
54 / 100
multi-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and News Sentiment strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth4.0
Q2 vs Q3: healthy growth (+8.5%)
Gross Margin6.0
Q2: high margin (65.0%)
Operating Leverage2.0
op margin healthy (24.6%)
Cash Runway10.0
FCF very strong ($2.1B, 6.6x CapEx)
R&D Intensity5.0
high R&D intensity (16.0%, aggressive)
Price Momentum4.0
RSI 74.9 overbought, 50d above
News Sentiment7.0
majority buy (65%)
Council Score
3 / 6 Bullish
6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 1 bearish (Jim Simons), 2 neutral (Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +3.4%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 75
Klarman value - target upside +3.4%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +3.4%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued
Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->
Interest CoverageAdequate
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning
What levels is the stock being tested at?
RSI(14)
74.9
RSI 74.9 overbought, 50d above
MACD
+14.60
price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$82
stock 14.6% above - short-term support
200d MA
$75
stock 25.2% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-24%
decrease - low participation
Resistance
$98
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$94
Pre-earnings position
Support
$64
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$64-$98 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger
Past Performance
Cisco beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$0.96 vs $0.92 est - +4.8%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$0.99 vs $0.98 est - -1.6%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.00 vs $0.98 est - +4.6%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$1.04 vs $1.02 est - -12.3%
Q2 (February 11, 2026): EPS $1.04 vs $1.02 est[FMP], +2.0% beat. D+1 movement: -12.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Three scenarios: what could happen?
EPS < $1.01 (no guidance)
Q2: EPS $1.04 vs $1.02 beat[FMP], stock -12.3% D+1[FMP].
"-"
- Mark Patterson, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Insider trading signal
Form 4 data is marked in the table - this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
Our FMP plan does not provide Form 4 insider feed for this stock. This page does not generate assumptions - SEC EDGAR Form 4 can be monitored directly.
CapEx shock
Q2 CapEx $323.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 24.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
"-"
- Mark Patterson, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
Framework - Position discipline
After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.04 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.04[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $98[FMP target]; high target $110[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.04 + CapEx < $323.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.04[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $323.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $94[FMP] and median $98[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.01 or CapEx >= $323.0M
Threshold: EPS < $1.01[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $94 below SMA200 $75[FMP], if rejection continues, $64[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.
Market Outlook
What do 2 analysts say?
Wall Street Consensus
$98
12-month median target price (+3.4% gap to the analyst consensus median)
Risk Management
$64
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$82 - 50-day MA (above, +14.6%)
$75 - 200-day MA (above, +25.2%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - CSCO Q4 FY26
A-
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.04[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $323.0M". Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison
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Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI is free today — no credit card. Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look
May 13, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 14, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jun 27, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 13, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the CSCO earnings preview cover?
This Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
What should investors watch for in CSCO earnings?
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Where do the numbers on this page come from?
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
Is this a buy or sell recommendation?
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.