Cisco Systems, Inc.
CSCO - NASDAQ - $91.85 ▲ +%0.38
-
Earnings Wed 13 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-13 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Cisco opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

1 analysts' median target is $98[FMP target], stock is $92, +6.2% upside potential. After Q2 +2.0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -12.3%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
HOLD Council 3/6 - Moonshot 54

B+ = MoonshotScore 54[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $15.5B[FMP est], EPS $1.04[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.04 EPS Estimate Last year $0.99 - +8% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q2 EPS +2.0% beat[FMP] but the stock -12.3% D+1[FMP D+1]. Mark Patterson promised $323.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Mark Patterson capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

$5 billion Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Ai Revenue Guidance

fy26_ai_revenue_guidance

Cisco now expects to recognize over $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in FY '26.

"Given the strong demand for our Silicon One systems and optics, we now expect to take AI orders in excess of $5 billion and to recognize over $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in FY '26."

- Charles Robbins, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
20% Investor Focus

Networking Product Orders Growth

networking_product_orders_growth

Growth in networking product orders continued to accelerate, reaching more than 20% in Q2 and marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth driven by service provider routing, data center switching, campus switching, wireless, servers and industrial IoT products.

"Growth in networking product orders continued to accelerate, reaching more than 20% in Q2 and marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth driven by service provider routing, data center switching, campus switching, wireless, servers and industrial IoT products."

- Charles Robbins, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
18% Investor Focus

Q2 Product Orders Growth

q2_product_orders_growth

Overall, total product orders grew 18% year-over-year in Q2.

"Overall, total product orders grew 18% year-over-year, even on top of double-digit growth in Q2 fiscal year '25."

- Charles Robbins, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
65% Investor Focus

Hyperscaler Product Orders Growth

hyperscaler_product_orders_growth

Product orders from service provider and cloud customers accelerated in Q2, growing 65%, driven by triple-digit order growth across hyperscalers.

"Product orders from service provider and cloud customers accelerated in Q2, growing 65%, driven by triple-digit order growth across hyperscalers."

- Charles Robbins, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
$2.1 billion Investor Focus

Ai Infrastructure Orders

ai_infrastructure_orders

AI infrastructure orders taken from hyperscalers totaled $2.1 billion in Q2 compared to $1.3 billion just last quarter and equal to the total orders taken in all of fiscal year '25, marking another significant acceleration in growth across our silicon, systems and optics.

"AI infrastructure orders taken from hyperscalers totaled $2.1 billion in Q2 compared to $1.3 billion just last quarter and equal to the total orders taken in all of fiscal year '25, marking another significant acceleration in growth across our silicon, systems and optics."

- Charles Robbins, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 54 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and News Sentiment strong. Operating Leverage weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth4.0Q2 vs Q3: healthy growth (+8.5%)
Gross Margin6.0Q2: high margin (65.0%)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (24.6%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($2.1B, 6.6x CapEx)
R&D Intensity5.0high R&D intensity (16.0%, aggressive)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 70.7 overbought, 50d above
News Sentiment7.0majority buy (65%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 1 bearish (Jim Simons), 2 neutral (Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +6.2%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 71
Klarman value - target upside +6.2%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +6.2%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
70.7 RSI 70.7 overbought, 50d above
MACD
+12.40 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$82 stock 12.4% above - short-term support
200d MA
$75 stock 22.4% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-9% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$98
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$92
Pre-earnings position
Support
$64
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$64-$98 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Cisco beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q3 FY25
$0.96 vs $0.92 est - +4.8%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$0.99 vs $0.98 est - -1.6%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.00 vs $0.98 est - +4.6%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$1.04 vs $1.02 est - -12.3%

Q2 (February 11, 2026): EPS $1.04 vs $1.02 est[FMP], +2.0% beat. D+1 movement: -12.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.01 (no guidance)

Q2: EPS $1.04 vs $1.02 beat[FMP], stock -12.3% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $323.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 24.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.04 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.04[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $98[FMP target]; high target $100[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.04 + CapEx < $323.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.04[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $323.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $92[FMP] and median $98[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.01 or CapEx >= $323.0M
Threshold: EPS < $1.01[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $92 below SMA200 $75[FMP], if rejection continues, $64[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 1 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$98
12-month median target price (+6.2% upside potential)
17
BUY
9
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$64
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$82 - 50-day MA (above, +12.4%)
$75 - 200-day MA (above, +22.4%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - CSCO Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.04[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $323.0M"[Mark Patterson]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days CSCO dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 13, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 14, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jun 27, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 13, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the CSCO earnings preview cover?

This CSCO (CSCO) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in CSCO earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.