13 analysts' median target is $500[FMP target], stock is $383, +30.5% upside potential. After Q1 +7.0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -0.2%.
B = MoonshotScore 53[9-pillar formula] + Council 5/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $6.8B[FMP est], EPS $2.02[FMP est]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +7.0% beat[FMP] but the stock -0.2% D+1[FMP D+1]. Mark Jenkins promised $51.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Mark Jenkins capex transcript].
Watchlist
Wholesale Retail Spread
wholesale_retail_spread
Carvana expects approximately $100 to $200 of impact from narrower industry-wide wholesale to retail spreads in Q2 2026 due to wholesale appreciation not being fully passed on into retail prices.
"Looking ahead to Q2, we expect retail GPU to increase sequentially, but to decrease year-over-year due to approximately $100 to $200 of impact from narrower industry-wide wholesale to retail spreads this year."
- Mark Jenkins, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Sga Expense Leverage
sga_expense_leverage
Carvana achieved a $170 reduction in non-GAAP SG&A expense per retail unit sold, driven by 40% growth in retail units sold.
"Our 40% growth in retail units sold led to a $170 reduction in non-GAAP SG&A expense per retail unit sold, including a $36 reduction in operations expenses and a $226 reduction in overhead expenses."
- Mark Jenkins, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Record Sales And Profitability
record_sales_and_profitability
Carvana achieved record sales of 187,000 cars, GAAP operating income of $581 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $672 million in Q1 2026.
"The first quarter was another outstanding quarter for Carvana. It was another quarter full of records, including a record 187,000 cars sold in a single quarter, a record GAAP operating income of $581 million and record adjusted EBITDA of $672 million"
- Ernest Garcia, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Long Term Growth Drivers
long_term_growth_drivers
Carvana's growth in Q1 2026 was driven by its three long-term drivers of growth: a continuously improving customer offering, increased awareness, understanding and trust, and increasing inventory selection.
"Consistent with past quarters, our growth in the first quarter was driven by our three long-term drivers of growth, a continuously improving customer offering, increase awareness, understanding and trust and increasing inventory selection and other benefits of scale."
- Mark Jenkins, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Q2 Outlook
q2_outlook
Assuming the environment remains stable, Carvana expects a sequential increase in both retail units sold and adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026, leading to all-time company records on both metrics.
"Looking toward Q2 and assuming the environment remains stable, we expect a sequential increase in both retail units sold and adjusted EBITDA, leading to all-time company records on both metrics."
- Mark Jenkins, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Reconditioning Team Tools
reconditioning_team_tools
Carvana developed new tools to improve the reconditioning team's performance, and these tools are expected to drive additional fundamental gains over time.
"The new tools that were discussed are net new tools. And those are tools that we hope will drive additional fundamental gains over time."
- Ernest Garcia, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. Gross Margin weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 5 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $1.69 vs $1.58 est[FMP], +7.0% beat. D+1 movement: -0.2%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $1.69 vs $1.58 beat[FMP], stock -0.2% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $51.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 9.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.02[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $51.0M"[Mark Jenkins]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This CVNA (CVNA) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.