Chevron Corporation
CVX - NYSE - $190.63 ▼ -%1.39
-
Earnings Fri 7 Aug

Chevron opens the
books on Friday evening.

4 analysts' median target is $190[FMP target], stock is $191, -0.6% upside potential. After Q1 +41.0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved no data.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
SELL Council 0/6 - Moonshot 33

B = MoonshotScore 33[9-pillar formula] + Council 0/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q1 consensus: revenue $60.0B[FMP est], EPS $4.53[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$4.53 EPS Estimate Last year $1.41 - +156% YoY YoY
5 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 5 quarters

Q1 EPS +41.0% beat[FMP] but the stock no data D+1[FMP D+1]. Eimear P. Bonner promised $4.1B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Eimear P. Bonner capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

1% Investor Focus

Venezuela Cash Flow

venezuela_cash_flow

Chevron expects Venezuela to continue to represent 1% to 2% of cash flow from operations.

"We are still in debt recovery mode and expect Venezuela to continue to represent 1% to 2% of cash flow from operations."

- Michael K. Wirth, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
500 thousand Investor Focus

Production Increase

production_increase

First-quarter 2026 oil-equivalent production increased by approximately 500 thousand barrels per day compared to 2025.

"First-quarter 2026 oil-equivalent production increased by approximately 500 thousand barrels per day compared to 2025."

- Eimear P. Bonner, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
$3 billion Investor Focus

Unfavorable Timing Effects

unfavorable_timing_effects

Chevron's first-quarter earnings were impacted by approximately $3 billion of unfavorable timing effects, reflecting a steep rise in commodity prices in March.

"Unfavorable timing effects totaled around $3 billion for the quarter, reflecting a steep rise in commodity prices in March."

- Eimear P. Bonner, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
40% Investor Focus

Global Equity Crude Throughput

global_equity_crude_throughput

Chevron expects global equity crude throughput to more than double year over year to 40% in the second quarter.

"In the second quarter, we expect global equity crude throughput to more than double year over year to 40%."

- Michael K. Wirth, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
80% Investor Focus

Asia Refinery Utilization

asia_refinery_utilization

Chevron anticipates over 80% refinery utilization in Asia.

"In Asia, we anticipate over 80% refinery utilization."

- Michael K. Wirth, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 33 / 100

9-pillar methodology. News Sentiment strong. Gross Margin weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth4.0Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+7.2%)
Gross Margin1.0Q1: low margin (9.6%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (6.8%)
Cash Runway3.0FCF negative ($-1.5B, external financing needed)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 49.9 balanced, 50d below
News Sentiment7.0strong buy consensus (72%)
Council Score 0 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 0 bullish (none), 3 bearish (Ken Griffin, Klarman, Munger), 3 neutral (Ray Dalio, Jim Simons, Buffett).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside -0.6%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 50
Klarman value - target upside -0.6%
Buffett quality - ROE score 3/5
Munger valuation - target upside -0.6%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Overvalued

Quality business, but price is high.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
49.9 RSI 49.9 balanced, 50d below
MACD
-1.20 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$193 stock 1.2% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$167 stock 14.5% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+8% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$190
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$191
Pre-earnings position
Support
$142
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$142-$190 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Chevron's last 8 quarters: 5 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.77 vs $1.73 est - -0.2%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.85 vs $1.69 est - -2.3%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.52 vs $1.41 est - -1.6%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.41 vs $1.00 est - no data

Q1 (May 1, 2026): EPS $1.41 vs $1.00 est[FMP], +41.0% beat. D+1 movement: no data[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $4.39 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $1.41 vs $1.00 beat[FMP], stock no data D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $4.1B[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 6.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $4.53 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $4.53[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $190[FMP target]; high target $222[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $4.53 + CapEx < $4.1B
Threshold: EPS approx $4.53[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $4.1B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $191[FMP] and median $190[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $4.39 or CapEx >= $4.1B
Threshold: EPS < $4.39[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $191 below SMA200 $167[FMP], if rejection continues, $142[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 4 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$190
12-month median target price (-0.6% upside potential)
18
BUY
6
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$142
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$193 - 50-day MA (below, -1.2%)
$167 - 200-day MA (above, +14.5%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - CVX Q1 FY27
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Friday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Friday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $4.53[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $4.1B"[Eimear P. Bonner]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Aug 7, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Aug 8, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 21, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Nov 7, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the CVX earnings preview cover?

This CVX (CVX) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in CVX earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.