Dollar General Corporation
DG - NYSE - $113.29 ▼ -%2.73
-
Earnings Tue 2 Jun
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-06-02 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Dollar opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

9 analysts' median target is $140[FMP target], stock is $113, +23.6% upside potential. After Q4 +16.3% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -3.0%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
BUY Council 2/6 - Moonshot 39

B+ = MoonshotScore 39[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $10.8B[FMP est], EPS $1.90[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.90 EPS Estimate Last year $1.93 - +7% YoY YoY
5 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 5 quarters

Q4 EPS +16.3% beat[FMP] but the stock -3.0% D+1[FMP D+1]. Donny Lau promised $547.2M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Donny Lau capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

3.7% Expectation / Guide

2026 EPS Guidance

2026_EPS_guidance

Dollar General expects EPS in the range of $7.10 to $7.35 for 2026.

"Taking all this into account, for 2026, we expect net sales growth in the range of 3.7% to 4.2%. Same-store sales growth in the range of 2.2% to 2.7%, and EPS in the range of $7.10 to $7.35."

- Donny Lau, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 12, 2026
120 Investor Focus

DG Media Network Growth

DG_Media_Network_growth

Dollar General expects approximately 50 basis points of gross margin improvement from its DG Media Network initiatives over the next 3 to 4 years.

"In total, over the next 3 to 4 years, we expect these combined initiatives will contribute at least 120 basis points of gross margin improvement, including approximately 50 basis points from our DG Media Network."

- Donny Lau, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 12, 2026
3.7% Investor Focus

2026 Net Sales Growth

2026_net_sales_growth

Dollar General expects net sales growth in the range of 3.7% to 4.2% for 2026.

"Taking all this into account, for 2026, we expect net sales growth in the range of 3.7% to 4.2%."

- Donny Lau, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 12, 2026
50 Risk Indicator

Gross Margin Expansion

gross_margin_expansion

Dollar General anticipates approximately 50 basis points of incremental gross margin expansion from efforts to further reduce shrink and damages.

"More specifically, we now anticipate shrink and damages combined will contribute approximately 50 basis points of incremental gross margin expansion as we continue to optimize our inventory position, improve in-store execution, and reduced store manager turnover."

- Donny Lau, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 12, 2026
$1.4 billion Investor Focus

2026 Capital Spending

2026_capital_spending

Dollar General expects capital spending in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion for 2026.

"We expect capital spending in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion, which is in line with our capital allocation priorities and designed to support ongoing growth."

- Donny Lau, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 12, 2026
20% Investor Focus

Nonconsumable Sales Penetration Target

nonconsumable_sales_penetration_target

Dollar General aims to increase nonconsumable sales penetration to as high as 20% by 2029.

"Notably, our goal is to increase nonconsumable sales penetration to as high as 20% by 2029."

- Todd Vasos, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 12, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 39 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth2.0Q4 vs Q1: moderate growth (+4.6%)
Gross Margin3.0Q4: average margin (30.4%)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (5.6%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($1.3B, 2.3x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 36.0 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment4.0mixed (43% buy)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +23.6%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 36
Klarman value - target upside +23.6%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside +23.6%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
36.0 RSI 36.0 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-10.20 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$126 stock 10.2% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$121 stock 6.7% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+16% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$140
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$113
Pre-earnings position
Support
$103
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$103-$140 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Dollar's last 8 quarters: 5 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q1 FY25
$1.78 vs $1.48 est - -0.7%
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.86 vs $1.58 est - -2.6%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.28 vs $0.94 est - +5.7%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.93 vs $1.66 est - -3.0%

Q4 (March 12, 2026): EPS $1.93 vs $1.66 est[FMP], +16.3% beat. D+1 movement: -3.0%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.84 (no guidance)

Q4: EPS $1.93 vs $1.66 beat[FMP], stock -3.0% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q4 CapEx $547.2M[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 5.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.90 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.90[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $140[FMP target]; high target $170[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.90 + CapEx < $547.2M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.90[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $547.2M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $113[FMP] and median $140[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.84 or CapEx >= $547.2M
Threshold: EPS < $1.84[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $113 below SMA200 $121[FMP], if rejection continues, $103[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 9 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$140
12-month median target price (+23.6% upside potential)
13
BUY
16
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$103
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$126 - 50-day MA (below, -10.2%)
$121 - 200-day MA (below, -6.7%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - DG Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.90[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $547.2M"[Donny Lau]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jun 2, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jun 3, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jul 17, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Sep 2, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the DG earnings preview cover?

This DG (DG) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in DG earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.