10 analysts' median target is $136[FMP target], stock is $128, +6.1% upside potential. After Q1 +3.2% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.6%.
B = MoonshotScore 53[multi-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $7.6B[FMP est], EPS $1.33[FMP est]. 6 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +3.2% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.6% D+1[FMP D+1]. Brian Savoy promised $4.1B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Brian Savoy capex transcript].
Watchlist
Duk Q1 Eps Fy26 Guidance
duk_q1_eps_fy26_guidance
Duke Energy reported strong first quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.93 and reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance range of $6.55 to $6.80.
"Today, we announced first quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.93, which builds on our momentum from last year and marks a strong start to the year. These results are primarily driven by critical infrastructure investments to meet growing customer demand in our service territories. We are on track to achieve our 2026 guidance range of $6.55 to $6.80 and are reaffirming our 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate through 2030."
- Harry Sideris - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Duk Long Term Eps Growth
duk_long_term_eps_growth
The company reaffirmed its 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate through 2030 and expects to deliver in the top half of this range starting in 2028 due to accelerated growth from economic development projects.
"We are on track to achieve our 2026 guidance range of $6.55 to $6.80 and are reaffirming our 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate through 2030. And we are more confident than ever that we will deliver in the top half of the range beginning in 2028 when we expect to see accelerated growth from the economic development projects we have secured under ESAs."
- Harry Sideris - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Duk Data Center Esas
duk_data_center_esas
Duke Energy has signed an additional 2.7 gigawatts of ESAs with data center customers, bringing the total executed agreements to approximately 7.6 gigawatts, with nearly two-thirds already under construction.
"Since the fourth quarter call, we've signed an additional 2.7 gigawatts of ESAs with data center customers, bringing our total executed agreements to approximately 7.6 gigawatts, nearly 2/3 of which are already under construction."
- Harry Sideris - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Duk Capital Plan Funding Ffo Debt
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Over $5 billion in proceeds from asset sales and investments strengthen Duke Energy's credit profile, helping to fund its $103 billion capital plan and keeping it on track for 14.5% FFO to debt in 2026 and 15% long-term.
"The more than $5 billion in proceeds strengthen our credit profile and help cost effectively fund our $103 billion capital plan as we invest for the benefit of our customers... This balanced funding approach, along with improving cash flows from efficient recovery mechanisms keeps us on track to deliver 14.5% FFO to debt in 2026 and 15% over the long term, providing meaningful cushion to our downgrade thresholds."
- Brian Savoy - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Duk Carolina Utilities Combination
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All regulatory approvals, including from FERC, North Carolina, and South Carolina, have been received for the proposed combination of Duke Energy's two Carolina utilities, projected to save customers $2.3 billion through 2040.
"We also received all regulatory approvals, including from FERC, North Carolina and South Carolina regulators for the proposed combination of our 2 Carolina utilities. Combining these utilities will enable us to meet the Carolina's growing energy needs more efficiently with estimated customer savings of $2.3 billion through 2040."
- Harry Sideris - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Duk Clean Energy Tax Credits
duk_clean_energy_tax_credits
Duke Energy reached a multiyear agreement to monetize up to $3.1 billion of clean energy tax credits through 2028, with proceeds benefiting customers by keeping rates low.
"First, last week, we reached a multiyear agreement to monetize up to $3.1 billion of clean energy tax credits expected to be generated through 2028. The proceeds will flow back to customers to support keeping rates as low as possible."
- Harry Sideris - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
multi-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin), 0 bearish (none), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (May 5, 2026): EPS $1.93 vs $1.87 est[FMP], +3.2% beat. D+1 movement: -1.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $1.93 vs $1.87 beat[FMP], stock -1.6% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $4.1B[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 29.7%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $1.33[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $4.1B"[Brian Savoy]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.