Duke Energy Corporation
DUK - NYSE - $128.60 ▼ -%0.73
-
Earnings Tue 5 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-05 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Duke opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

6 analysts' median target is $136[FMP target], stock is $129, +5.8% upside potential. After Q4 +0.7% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +1.3%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
HOLD Council 2/6 - Moonshot 29

B+ = MoonshotScore 29[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $8.4B[FMP est], EPS $1.79[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.79 EPS Estimate Last year $1.50 - +2% YoY YoY
5 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 5 quarters

Q4 EPS +0.7% beat[FMP] but the stock +1.3% D+1[FMP D+1]. Brian Savoy promised $4.1B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Brian Savoy capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

5% Investor Focus

Long Term EPS Growth

long_term_EPS_growth

Duke Energy is extending its 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate through 2030 and is confident in its ability to deliver in the top half of the range beginning in 2028.

"We're also extending our 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate through 2030 off the original 2025 guidance midpoint of $6.30. And I am more confident than ever in our ability to deliver in the top half of the range beginning in 2028 as load growth accelerates."

- Harry Sideris, President and CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 10, 2026
$6.31 Expectation / Guide

2026 EPS Guidance

2026_EPS_guidance

Duke Energy set its 2026 earnings per share guidance at $6.55 to $6.80.

"Today, we announced 2025 earnings per share of $6.31, representing 7% growth over 2024 and above the midpoint of our guidance range for the year. Looking ahead, we're introducing 2026 earnings guidance of $6.55 to $6.80."

- Harry Sideris, President and CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 10, 2026
9.6% Investor Focus

Earnings Base Growth

earnings_base_growth

Duke Energy's capital plan drives 9.6% earnings base growth.

"Our capital plan will drive 9.6% earnings base growth and is the largest fully regulated capital plan in the industry, focused on critical energy infrastructure investments that strengthen the system and serve increasing load."

- Harry Sideris, President and CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 10, 2026
1.5 Investor Focus

Data Center Agreements

data_center_agreements

Duke Energy signed an additional 1.5 gigawatts of electric service agreements with data center customers, including Microsoft and Compass, and now has approximately 4.5 gigawatts of data center load secured under ESAs.

"Since the third quarter earnings call, we signed an additional 1.5 gigawatts of electric service agreements with data center customers, including Microsoft and Compass, and now have approximately 4.5 gigawatts of data center load secured under ESAs."

- Brian Savoy, Executive Vice President and CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 10, 2026
$16 Investor Focus

Capital Plan Increase

capital_plan_increase

Duke Energy increased its 5-year capital plan by $16 billion to $103 billion.

"Our earnings profile is underpinned by a $16 billion increase in our 5-year capital plan to $103 billion."

- Harry Sideris, President and CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 10, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 29 / 100

9-pillar methodology. - strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q4 vs Q1: growth negative (-3.8%, contraction)
Gross Margin3.0Q4: average margin (30.5%)
Operating Leverage3.0op margin healthy (26.5%)
Cash Runway3.0FCF negative ($-0.5B, external financing needed)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 49.9 balanced, 50d below
News Sentiment4.0mixed (43% buy)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +5.8%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 50
Klarman value - target upside +5.8%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside +5.8%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
49.9 RSI 49.9 balanced, 50d below
MACD
-0.90 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$130 stock 0.9% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$124 stock 3.9% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-4% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$136
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$129
Pre-earnings position
Support
$105
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$105-$136 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Duke's last 8 quarters: 5 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q1 FY25
$1.76 vs $1.60 est - -0.3%
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.25 vs $1.18 est - +1.0%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.81 vs $1.76 est - -0.3%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.50 vs $1.49 est - +1.3%

Q4 (February 10, 2026): EPS $1.50 vs $1.49 est[FMP], +0.7% beat. D+1 movement: +1.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.74 (no guidance)

Q4: EPS $1.50 vs $1.49 beat[FMP], stock +1.3% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q4 CapEx $4.1B[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 26.5%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.79 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.79[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $136[FMP target]; high target $142[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.79 + CapEx < $4.1B
Threshold: EPS approx $1.79[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $4.1B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $129[FMP] and median $136[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.74 or CapEx >= $4.1B
Threshold: EPS < $1.74[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $129 below SMA200 $124[FMP], if rejection continues, $105[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 6 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$136
12-month median target price (+5.8% upside potential)
10
BUY
13
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$105
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$130 - 50-day MA (below, -0.9%)
$124 - 200-day MA (above, +3.9%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - DUK Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.79[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $4.1B"[Brian Savoy]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days DUK dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 5, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 6, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jun 19, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 5, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the DUK earnings preview cover?

This DUK (DUK) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in DUK earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.