Electronic Arts Inc.
EA - NASDAQ - $201.57 ▼ -%0.12
-
Earnings Tue 5 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-05 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Electronic opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

0 analysts' median target is $168[FMP target], stock is $202, -16.9% upside potential. After Q1 +2.1% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -2.3%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B-
SELL Council 1/6 - Moonshot 56

B- = MoonshotScore 56[9-pillar formula] + Council 1/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $2.0B[FMP est], EPS $2.39[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$2.39 EPS Estimate Last year $1.54 - +55% YoY YoY
1 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters

Q1 EPS +2.1% beat[FMP] but the stock -2.3% D+1[FMP D+1]. Stuart Canfield promised $61.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Stuart Canfield capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

$1.8 billion Expectation / Guide

Q2 Net Bookings Guidance

q2_net_bookings_guidance

EA expects net bookings for Q2 to be $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion, down 13% to down 9%.

"For Q2, we expect net bookings to be $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion, down 13% to down 9%."

- Stuart Canfield, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - July 29, 2025
- Investor Focus

Fc Mobile Growth

fc_mobile_growth

FC Mobile outperformed expectations with localized campaigns and growing web store adoption, fueling strong growth.

"FC Mobile outperformed expectations again this quarter with localized campaigns and growing web store adoption, fueling momentum through our team of the season event."

- Stuart Canfield, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - July 29, 2025
- Investor Focus

Ea Sports Growth

ea_sports_growth

EA SPORTS growth doesn't just reflect the world of sports, it's helping to shape it through mobile expansion, creative tools and deepening fandom.

"EA SPORTS growth doesn't just reflect the world of sports, it's helping to shape it."

- Andrew Wilson, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - July 29, 2025
8-point Investor Focus

American Football Ecosystem Headwind

american_football_ecosystem_headwind

The American Football ecosystem is expected to be an 8-point headwind in Q2 following the exceptionally strong launch of College Football 25, with growth expected in the second half of the year.

"Putting it all together, we expect the American Football ecosystem to be an 8-point headwind year-over-year for the quarter, with the ecosystem returning to growth in the second half of the fiscal year."

- Stuart Canfield, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - July 29, 2025
- Investor Focus

Apex Legends Performance

apex_legends_performance

Apex Legends delivered encouraging momentum in Q1, with net bookings flat sequentially, driven by strong operational execution, content innovation and the successful introduction of Legend Locker.

"Apex Legends delivered encouraging momentum in Q1. Net bookings were flat sequentially, driven by strong operational execution, content innovation and the successful introduction of Legend Locker."

- Stuart Canfield, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - July 29, 2025
- Investor Focus

College Football Retention

college_football_retention

College Football 26 is delivering strong competitive cohort retention early on, resulting in deeper engagement in Ultimate Team.

"While it's early, College Football 26 is delivering strong competitive cohort retention. As a result, we are seeing deeper engagement in Ultimate Team versus prior year life to date."

- Andrew Wilson, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - July 29, 2025

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 56 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong. Operating Leverage weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+26.9%)
Gross Margin8.0Q4: very high margin (82.8%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage3.0op margin healthy (26.6%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.5B, 8.5x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0very high R&D (37.5%, margin pressure risk)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 40.9 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment1.0majority sell/hold (11% buy)
Council Score 1 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 1 bullish (Buffett), 3 bearish (Ken Griffin, Klarman, Munger), 2 neutral (Ray Dalio, Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside -16.9%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 41
Klarman value - target upside -16.9%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside -16.9%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Overvalued

Quality business, but price is high.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
40.9 RSI 40.9 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-0.10 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$202 stock 0.1% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$194 stock 4.1% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-4% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$168
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$202
Pre-earnings position
Support
$165
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$165-$168 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Electronic's last 8 quarters: 1 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.54 vs $1.05 est - +0.6%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$0.25 vs $0.11 est - +5.7%
MISS
Q2 FY26
$1.21 vs $1.30 est - -0.0%
BEAT
Q3 FY26
$4.82 vs $4.72 est - -2.3%

Q1 (July 29, 2025): EPS $4.82 vs $4.72 est[FMP], +2.1% beat. D+1 movement: -2.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.32 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $4.82 vs $4.72 beat[FMP], stock -2.3% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $61.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 26.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $2.39 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.39[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $168[FMP target]; high target $210[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.39 + CapEx < $61.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.39[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $61.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $202[FMP] and median $168[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.32 or CapEx >= $61.0M
Threshold: EPS < $2.32[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $202 below SMA200 $194[FMP], if rejection continues, $165[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 0 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$168
12-month median target price (-16.9% upside potential)
2
BUY
17
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$165
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$202 - 50-day MA (below, -0.1%)
$194 - 200-day MA (above, +4.1%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - EA Q4 FY26
B-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.39[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $61.0M"[Stuart Canfield]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 5, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 6, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jun 19, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 5, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the EA earnings preview cover?

This EA (EA) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in EA earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.