EQT Corporation
EQT - NYSE - $58.72 ▼ -%0.61
-
Earnings Tue 28 Jul

EQT opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

0 analysts' median target is $44[FMP target], stock is $59, -25.1% upside potential. After Q1 +12.0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +3.1%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A
SELL Council 1/6 - Moonshot 73

A = MoonshotScore 73[9-pillar formula] + Council 1/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $1.9B[FMP est], EPS $0.58[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$0.58 EPS Estimate Last year $0.90 - +29% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q1 EPS +12.0% beat[FMP] but the stock +3.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Jeremy Knop promised $598.5M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Jeremy Knop capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

10 Investor Focus

Tactical Volume Curtailments

tactical_volume_curtailments

After surging production volumes in the peak winter pricing in Q1, we began tactically curtailing volumes this month to optimize price realizations during shoulder season and have embedded 10 to 15 Bcf of curtailments into our second quarter production guidance.

"After surging production volumes in the peak winter pricing in Q1, we began tactically curtailing volumes this month to optimize price realizations during shoulder season and have embedded 10 to 15 Bcf of curtailments into our second quarter production guidance."

- Jeremy Knop, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
$1.8 billion Investor Focus

Record Free Cash Flow

record_free_cash_flow

EQT generated more than $1.8 billion of free cash flow in the first quarter, another record-high for EQT.

"We generated more than $1.8 billion of free cash flow in the first quarter, another record-high for EQT."

- Toby Rice, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
$6 billion Investor Focus

Lng Portfolio Fcf Potential

lng_portfolio_fcf_potential

If our LNG portfolio was fully online today, with current TTF and JKM spreads to Henry Hub, our projected 2026 free cash flow would be approximately $6 billion.

"In fact, if our LNG portfolio was fully online today, with current TTF and JKM spreads to Henry Hub, our projected 2026 free cash flow would be approximately $6 billion."

- Toby Rice, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
BBB Investor Focus

Upgrade Credit Rating

upgrade_credit_rating

This accelerated deleveraging has already been recognized by the credit rating agencies, with Fitch upgrading EQT to BBB during the quarter. This milestone further strengthens our brand while mitigating financial risk as we expand our gas sales portfolio.

"This accelerated deleveraging has already been recognized by the credit rating agencies, with Fitch upgrading EQT to BBB during the quarter. This milestone further strengthens our brand while mitigating financial risk as we expand our gas sales portfolio."

- Jeremy Knop, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 73 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong. R&D Intensity weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+32.1%)
Gross Margin10.0Q1: very high margin (98.4%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage6.0op margin very strong (60.3%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($2.5B, 4.1x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 45.8 balanced, 50d below
News Sentiment8.0strong buy consensus (76%)
Council Score 1 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 1 bullish (Buffett), 3 bearish (Ken Griffin, Klarman, Munger), 2 neutral (Ray Dalio, Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside -25.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 46
Klarman value - target upside -25.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside -25.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Overvalued

Quality business, but price is high.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
45.8 RSI 45.8 balanced, 50d below
MACD
-4.00 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$61 stock 4.0% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$56 stock 4.6% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-12% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$44
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$59
Pre-earnings position
Support
$48
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$48-$44 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

EQT beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$0.45 vs $0.42 est - -4.4%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$0.52 vs $0.36 est - -4.0%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$0.90 vs $0.76 est - +1.5%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$2.33 vs $2.08 est - +3.1%

Q1 (April 22, 2026): EPS $2.33 vs $2.08 est[FMP], +12.0% beat. D+1 movement: +3.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $0.56 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $2.33 vs $2.08 beat[FMP], stock +3.1% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $598.5M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 60.3%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $0.58 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $0.58[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $44[FMP target]; high target $55[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $0.58 + CapEx < $598.5M
Threshold: EPS approx $0.58[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $59[FMP]8.5M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $59 and median $44[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $0.56 or CapEx >= $598.5M
Threshold: EPS < $0.56[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $59 below SMA200 $56[FMP], if rejection continues, $48[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 0 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$44
12-month median target price (-25.1% upside potential)
19
BUY
6
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$48
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$61 - 50-day MA (below, -4.0%)
$56 - 200-day MA (above, +4.6%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - EQT Q4 FY26
A

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $0.58[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $598.5M"[Jeremy Knop]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days EQT dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 28, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 29, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 11, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 28, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the EQT earnings preview cover?

This EQT (EQT) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in EQT earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.