Exelon Corporation
EXC - NASDAQ - $45.74 ▼ -%2.51
-
Earnings
Thu 30 Jul
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-07-30 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.
Exelon opens the
books on Thursday evening.
10 analysts' median target is $49[FMP target], stock is $46, +7.1% upside potential. After Q1 +2.9% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.4%.
↓
summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
HOLD
Council 1/6
-
Moonshot 39
B+ = MoonshotScore 39[multi-pillar formula] + Council 1/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $5.4B[FMP est], EPS $0.48[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
$0.48
EPS Estimate
Last year $0.59 - +23% YoY YoY
-
Primary Segment Guidance
Previous quarter was 0%
8
Beat Streak
Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters
Q1 EPS +2.9% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.4% D+1[FMP D+1]. Calvin G. Butler Jr. promised $2.4B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Calvin G. Butler Jr. capex transcript].
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?
MoonshotScore
39 / 100
multi-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth strong. Gross Margin weak.
How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0
Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+33.4%)
Gross Margin3.0
Q1: low margin (28.3%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage2.0
op margin healthy (22.2%)
Cash Runway3.0
FCF negative ($-0.6B, external financing needed)
R&D Intensity3.0
low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0
RSI 44.7 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment2.0
majority sell/hold (18% buy)
Council Score
1 / 6 Bullish
6 investor frameworks. 1 bullish (Ray Dalio), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +7.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 45
Klarman value - target upside +7.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 3/5
Munger valuation - target upside +7.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued
Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->
Interest CoverageAdequate
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning
What levels is the stock being tested at?
RSI(14)
44.7
RSI 44.7 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-0.10
price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$46
stock 0.1% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$46
stock 0.9% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-7%
decrease - low participation
Resistance
$49
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$46
Pre-earnings position
Support
$39
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$39-$49 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger
Past Performance
Exelon beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$0.39 vs $0.37 est - -0.6%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$0.86 vs $0.78 est - -0.5%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$0.59 vs $0.55 est - +2.0%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$0.91 vs $0.88 est - -1.4%
Q1 (May 6, 2026): EPS $0.91 vs $0.88 est[FMP], +2.9% beat. D+1 movement: -1.4%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Three scenarios: what could happen?
EPS < $0.46 (no guidance)
Q1: EPS $0.91 vs $0.88 beat[FMP], stock -1.4% D+1[FMP].
Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Insider trading signal
Form 4 data is marked in the table - this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
Our FMP plan does not provide Form 4 insider feed for this stock. This page does not generate assumptions - SEC EDGAR Form 4 can be monitored directly.
CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $2.4B[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 22.2%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Framework - Position discipline
After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $0.48 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $0.48[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $49[FMP target]; high target $55[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $0.48 + CapEx < $2.4B
Threshold: EPS approx $0.48[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $2.4B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $46[FMP] and median $49[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $0.46 or CapEx >= $2.4B
Threshold: EPS < $0.46[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $46[FMP] below SMA200 $46, if rejection continues, $39[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.
Market Outlook
What do 10 analysts say?
Wall Street Consensus
$49
12-month median target price (+7.1% upside potential)
Risk Management
$39
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$46 - 50-day MA (below, -0.1%)
$46 - 200-day MA (below, -0.9%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - EXC Q4 FY26
B+
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $0.48[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $2.4B. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison
Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
3 subscriptions. 1 platform.
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage
TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades
Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look
Jul 30, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 31, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 13, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 30, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the EXC earnings preview cover?
This Exelon Corporation (EXC) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
What should investors watch for in EXC earnings?
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Where do the numbers on this page come from?
Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
Is this a buy or sell recommendation?
No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.