Exelon Corporation
EXC - NASDAQ - $46.18 ▼ -%0.92
-
Earnings Wed 6 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-06 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Exelon opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

12 analysts' median target is $50[FMP target], stock is $46, +8.3% upside potential. After Q4 +7.9% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +2.0%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
HOLD Council 1/6 - Moonshot 20

B+ = MoonshotScore 20[9-pillar formula] + Council 1/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $6.9B[FMP est], EPS $0.89[FMP est]. 7 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$0.89 EPS Estimate Last year $0.59 - -3% YoY YoY
7 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 7 quarters

Q4 EPS +7.9% beat[FMP] but the stock +2.0% D+1[FMP D+1]. Jeanne Jones promised $2.4B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Jeanne Jones capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

9% Investor Focus

Rate Base Growth

Rate_Base_Growth

Exelon expects rate base growth of approximately 8% and annualized earnings growth of 5% to 7% through 2029.

"With continued returns on equity in the 9% to 10% range, we expect rate base growth of approximately 8% and annualized earnings growth of 5% to 7% through 2029, with the expectation of being near the top end of that range."

- Calvin Butler, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
$41.3 Investor Focus

Capital Investment Plan

Capital_Investment_Plan

Exelon now expects to invest $41.3 billion of capital to support our customers, with more than 70% of the plan-over-plan increase driven by transmission.

"Looking ahead, we now expect to invest $41.3 billion of capital to support our customers, with more than 70% of the plan-over-plan increase driven by transmission, where we continue to have a unique opportunity and significant momentum."

- Calvin Butler, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
$12 Investor Focus

Transmission Opportunities

Transmission_Opportunities

Exelon now have line of sight to an additional $12 billion to $17 billion of transmission opportunities over the next decade, that strengthen and lengthen our plan.

"Coupled with our strength in execution, we now have line of sight to an additional $12 billion to $17 billion of transmission opportunities over the next decade, that strengthen and lengthen our plan."

- Jeanne Jones, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
$580 Investor Focus

O&M Cost Savings

O&M_Cost_Savings

Exelon is saving our customers approximately $580 million in O&M annually relative to what it would have been growing at a standard inflation level over the last decade.

"This focus is saving our customers approximately $580 million in O&M annually relative to what it would have been growing at a standard inflation level over the last decade."

- Jeanne Jones, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 20 / 100

9-pillar methodology. - strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q4 vs Q1: growth negative (-19.4%, contraction)
Gross Margin0.0Q4: low margin (-21.6%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (21.8%)
Cash Runway3.0FCF negative ($-1.2B, external financing needed)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 40.6 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment2.0majority sell/hold (18% buy)
Council Score 1 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 1 bullish (Ray Dalio), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +8.3%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 41
Klarman value - target upside +8.3%
Buffett quality - ROE score 3/5
Munger valuation - target upside +8.3%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
40.6 RSI 40.6 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-4.20 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$48 stock 4.2% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$46 stock 1.0% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+20% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$50
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$46
Pre-earnings position
Support
$39
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$39-$50 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Exelon's last 8 quarters: 7 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q1 FY25
$0.92 vs $0.88 est - -0.3%
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$0.39 vs $0.37 est - -0.6%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$0.86 vs $0.78 est - -0.5%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$0.59 vs $0.55 est - +2.0%

Q4 (February 12, 2026): EPS $0.59 vs $0.55 est[FMP], +7.9% beat. D+1 movement: +2.0%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $0.86 (no guidance)

Q4: EPS $0.59 vs $0.55 beat[FMP], stock +2.0% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q4 CapEx $2.4B[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 21.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $0.89 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $0.89[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $50[FMP target]; high target $55[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $0.89 + CapEx < $2.4B
Threshold: EPS approx $0.89[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $2.4B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $46[FMP] and median $50[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $0.86 or CapEx >= $2.4B
Threshold: EPS < $0.86[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $46[FMP] below SMA200 $46, if rejection continues, $39[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 12 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$50
12-month median target price (+8.3% upside potential)
4
BUY
16
HOLD
2
SELL
Risk Management
$39
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$48 - 50-day MA (below, -4.2%)
$46 - 200-day MA (above, +1.0%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - EXC Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $0.89[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $2.4B"[Jeanne Jones]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 6, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 7, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jun 20, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 6, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the EXC earnings preview cover?

This EXC (EXC) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in EXC earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.