16 analysts' median target is $260[FMP target], stock is $230, +13.1% upside potential. After Q1 +39.0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -9.0%.
A- = MoonshotScore 50[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $4.1B[FMP est], EPS $5.14[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +39.0% beat[FMP] but the stock -9.0% D+1[FMP D+1]. Scott Schenkel promised $184.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Scott Schenkel capex transcript].
Watchlist
Q2 Revenue Growth Guidance
q2_revenue_growth_guidance
Expedia expects revenue growth for the second quarter of 2026 to be in the range of 9% to 11%.
"For the second quarter, we expect gross bookings growth of 7% to 9% and revenue growth of 9% to 11%."
- Scott Schenkel, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
Q1 Margin Expansion
q1_margin_expansion
Expedia achieved its highest Q1 margin in 15 years with nearly 6 points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion in Q1.
"We delivered first quarter adjusted EBITDA of $542 million with a margin of 15.8%, our highest Q1 in 15 years with nearly 6 points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion."
- Scott Schenkel, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
B2b Bookings Growth
b2b_bookings_growth
Expedia's B2B gross bookings grew 22%, led by an acceleration in North America and double-digit growth across all core regions.
"B2B gross bookings grew 22% to $10.7 billion, led by an acceleration in North America and double-digit growth across all core regions."
- Scott Schenkel, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
Consumer Bookings Growth
consumer_bookings_growth
Expedia's consumer brands grew bookings by 10%, the fastest pace in 12 quarters.
"Our consumer brands grew bookings by 10%, the fastest pace in 12 quarters."
- Ariane Gorin, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
Ai Powered Servicing
ai_powered_servicing
Expedia handles more than 250 million service interactions a year with over 30% of those are powered by AI.
"We handle more than 250 million service interactions a year with over half resolved through self-service. More than 30% of those are powered by AI and that number keeps increasing."
- Ariane Gorin, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
Marketing Value From Ai
marketing_value_from_ai
Overall, AI-enabled tools are driving hundreds of millions of dollars in realized marketing value through greater productivity and workflow automation.
"Overall, AI-enabled tools are driving hundreds of millions of dollars in realized marketing value through greater productivity and workflow automation."
- Ariane Gorin, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (May 7, 2026): EPS $1.96 vs $1.41 est[FMP], +39.0% beat. D+1 movement: -9.0%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $1.96 vs $1.41 beat[FMP], stock -9.0% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $184.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 7.3%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $5.14[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $184.0M"[Scott Schenkel]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This EXPE (EXPE) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.