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Diamondback Energy, Inc.
FANG - NASDAQ - $199.51 ▼ -%0.12
-
Earnings
Mon 2 Nov
Diamondback opens the
books on Monday evening.
15 analysts' median target is $232[FMP target], stock is $200, +16.3% vs the analyst consensus median. After Q2 +6.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -3.5%.
↓
summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
BUY
Council 2/6
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Moonshot 70
B = MoonshotScore 70[multi-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Quick AnswerDiamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG)
Q2 consensus: revenue $4.4B[FMP est], EPS $4.80[FMP est]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
$4.80
EPS Estimate
Last year $6.48 - +56% YoY YoY
-
Midland Basin Guidance
Previous quarter was 0%
2
Beat Streak
Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 2 quarters
Q2 EPS +6.6% beat[FMP] but the stock -3.5% D+1[FMP D+1].
Production Growth Strategy
production_growth_strategy
Diamondback plans to strategically grow production into 2027 with low single-digit organic growth, betting on low global inventories and a longer-term bid for oil, while maintaining capital efficiency.
"I think the goalposts are for us going into next year, do we hold production flat, which we're kind of doing from these higher elevated levels right now in Q3, or do we grow organically off of this number in a capital-efficient way. And right now, the model spits out some form of low single-digit organic growth while maintaining capital efficiency and running 5 frac crews consistently throughout the year."
- Kaes Van't Hof, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 3, 2026
Gas Data Center Strategy
gas_data_center_strategy
As part of the gas mega theme, Diamondback is developing a unique "bridge-to-grid" power solution for data centers at its 30,000-acre Bryant Ranch location, aiming to deliver first gas in the back half of 2027.
"We have secured distributed power generation, remediated land and directed access to dedicated nat gas and water supply. All of this should allow us to provide a shovel-ready development project, delivering first gas as soon as the back half of 2027 through the use of behind-the-meter recip units."
- Jere Thompson, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 3, 2026
Capital Allocation Debt
capital_allocation_debt
Diamondback removed its minimum free cash flow commitment to enhance capital allocation flexibility, reducing net debt by $1.6 billion in Q2, which translated to $5.60 per share of value.
"So we did allocate a little bit to the buyback in Q2 as weakness stepped in at the end of the quarter. We've allocated a little bit to the buyback here in Q3. You can see that those numbers that we're willing to buy back at have gone up. But we also reduced net debt by $1.6 billion. And that translates to $5.60 a share of value that went from the debt side of the equation to the equity side because, in my mind, our NAV wasn't -- didn't go down much in the second quarter. In fact, it went up."
- Kaes Van't Hof, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 3, 2026
Barnett Cost Reduction
barnett_cost_reduction
Diamondback is aggressively developing its Barnett position, aiming to reduce drilling costs to $400 per foot or less, expecting this program to yield returns competitive with the base plan.
"I will say, we're seeing wins on the drilling side. I think we're more on our front foot than anybody else in the basin on Barnett exposure and drilling costs. And they're getting closer to $400 a foot. I think we have 5% or 10% to go. There have been a couple of wells below $400 a foot, but I'm think we expect to consistently get to around that $400 or less per foot number to make returns competitive with the base plan."
- Kaes Van't Hof, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 3, 2026
Enhanced Oil Recovery
enhanced_oil_recovery
Diamondback's initial results from its 12-well surfactant EOR project are very positive, with some wells seeing production increases of 100 to 150 barrels/day, and the company plans to integrate this technology into new well pads.
"Yes, Arun, we -- so we executed a 12-well project this quarter and are in the process of flowing those wells back currently. The initial results are very positive. And I think we're going to take the learnings from this batch of wells in terms of what rock type, what reservoirs this technology is really suitable for and take those learnings and apply it to the next group of wells that we'll be doing in Q3."
- Albert Barkmann, Chief Engineer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 3, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?
MoonshotScore
70 / 100
multi-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. R&D Intensity weak.
How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0
Q2 vs Q3: fast growth (+41.7%)
Gross Margin5.0
Q2: average margin (45.2%)
Operating Leverage5.0
op margin very strong (45.2%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0
FCF very strong ($2.6B, 2.6x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0
low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0
RSI 54.9 balanced, 50d above
News Sentiment9.0
strong buy consensus (86%)
Council Score
2 / 6 Bullish
6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin), 0 bearish (none), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +16.3%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 55
Klarman value - target upside +16.3%
Buffett quality - ROE score 2/5
Munger valuation - target upside +16.3%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued
Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->
Interest CoverageAdequate
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning
What levels is the stock being tested at?
RSI(14)
54.9
RSI 54.9 balanced, 50d above
MACD
+4.30
price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$191
stock 4.3% above - short-term support
200d MA
$176
stock 13.3% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-36%
decrease - low participation
Resistance
$232
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$200
Pre-earnings position
Support
$150
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$150-$232 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger
Past Performance
Diamondback's last 8 quarters: 2 consecutive beats.
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$3.08 vs $2.94 est - -1.3%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$1.74 vs $2.00 est - -0.7%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$4.23 vs $3.74 est - -3.5%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$6.48 vs $6.08 est - -3.5%
Q2 (August 3, 2026): EPS $6.48 vs $6.08 est[FMP], +6.6% beat. D+1 movement: -3.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Three scenarios: what could happen?
EPS < $4.66 (no guidance)
Q2: EPS $6.48 vs $6.08 beat[FMP], stock -3.5% D+1[FMP].
"-"
- Jere Thompson, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 3, 2026
Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Insider trading signal
Form 4 data is marked in the table - this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
Our FMP plan does not provide Form 4 insider feed for this stock. This page does not generate assumptions - SEC EDGAR Form 4 can be monitored directly.
CapEx shock
Q2 CapEx $996.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 45.2%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q2 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
"-"
- Jere Thompson, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 3, 2026
Framework - Position discipline
After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Scenario A - Beat
Q2 EPS > $4.80 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $4.80[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $232[FMP target]; high target $255[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $4.80 + CapEx < $996.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $4.80[FMP est], Q2 CapEx < $996.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $200[FMP] and median $232[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $4.66 or CapEx >= $996.0M
Threshold: EPS < $4.66[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $200 below SMA200 $176[FMP], if rejection continues, $150[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.
Market Outlook
What do 15 analysts say?
Wall Street Consensus
$232
12-month median target price (+16.3% gap to the analyst consensus median)
Risk Management
$150
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$191 - 50-day MA (above, +4.3%)
$176 - 200-day MA (above, +13.3%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - FANG Q2 FY27
B
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Monday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Monday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q2 EPS threshold $4.80[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $996.0M". Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison
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Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI is free today — no credit card. Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look
Nov 2, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Nov 3, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Dec 17, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Feb 2, 2027EARNINGSQ3 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the FANG earnings preview cover?
This Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
What should investors watch for in FANG earnings?
Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Where do the numbers on this page come from?
Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
Is this a buy or sell recommendation?
Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.