9 analysts' median target is $1650[FMP target], stock is $1126, +46.5% upside potential. After Q2 +14.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +3.3%.
C+ = MoonshotScore 80[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $676.1M[FMP est], EPS $11.67[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q2 EPS +14.8% beat[FMP] but the stock +3.3% D+1[FMP D+1]. Steve Weber promised $266000 CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Steve Weber capex transcript].
Watchlist
Mortgage Origination Revenue
mortgage_origination_revenue
Second quarter mortgage originations revenues were up 127% versus the prior year. Mortgage originations revenues accounted for 72% of B2B revenue and 63% of total Scores revenue.
"Second quarter mortgage originations revenues were up 127% versus the prior year. Mortgage originations revenues accounted for 72% of B2B revenue and 63% of total Scores revenue."
- Steven Weber, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Platform Arr Growth
platform_arr_growth
FICO Platform ARR grew by 49% to $349 million, representing 44% of total ARR.
"Platform ARR was $349 million, representing 44% of our total Q2 '26 ARR. Platform ARR grew 49% versus the prior year"
- Steven Weber, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Score Segment Growth
score_segment_growth
FICO's second quarter score segment revenues increased by 60% year-over-year, driven primarily by growth in B2B scores.
"At the segment level, shown on Page 6, our second quarter score segment revenues were $475 million, up 60% versus the prior year."
- William Lansing, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
B2b Score Growth
b2b_score_growth
B2B revenues were up 72%, primarily attributable to higher mortgage origination scores unit price and an increase in volume of mortgage origination.
"As shown on Page 16 of our presentation, B2B revenues were up 72%, primarily attributable to higher mortgage origination scores unit price and an increase in volume of mortgage origination."
- Steven Weber, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Share Repurchases
share_repurchases
FICO repurchased $605 million in shares in Q2, representing the single largest quarterly repurchase in FICO history, and has bought an additional $170 million in shares since April 1.
"In Q2, we repurchased 484,000 shares for a total cost of $605 million, representing the single largest quarterly repurchase in dollars in FICO history. With our recent $1.5 billion Board authorization, strong free cash flow and unutilized revolver, since April 1, we have bought an additional $170 million or 164,000 shares at an average price of $1,040 per share."
- Steven Weber, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q2 (April 28, 2026): EPS $12.50 vs $10.89 est[FMP], +14.8% beat. D+1 movement: +3.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q2: EPS $12.50 vs $10.89 beat[FMP], stock +3.3% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Q2 CapEx $266000[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 58.2%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $11.67[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $266000"[Steve Weber]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This FICO (FICO) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.