9 analysts' median target is $245[FMP target], stock is $220, +11.4% upside potential. After Q1 +12.2% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +4.9%.
A- = MoonshotScore 39[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $1.1B[FMP est], EPS $3.26[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +12.2% beat[FMP] but the stock +4.9% D+1[FMP D+1]. Alexander Bradley promised $118.5M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Alexander Bradley capex transcript].
Watchlist
CuRe Revenue Potential
CuRe_Revenue_Potential
Replication of CuRe across the Series 6 and 7 fleet supports the potentialization of up to $0.6 billion of additional revenue from technology adjusters, with the majority anticipated in 2027 and 2028.
"CuRe is scheduled to be replicated across the Series 6 and 7 fleet through the first half of 2028, which, if achieved, supports the potentialization of up to $0.6 billion of additional revenue from technology adjusters in the backlog with the majority anticipated in 2027 and 2028."
- Mark Widmar, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
FY26 Guidance Reaffirmation
FY26_Guidance_Reaffirmation
First Solar's full year 2026 guidance remains unchanged, reflecting confidence in the company's strategy and performance.
"Our full year 2026 guidance remains unchanged."
- Alexander Bradley, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
South Carolina Finishing Facility
South_Carolina_Finishing_Facility
First Solar's South Carolina finishing facility is on track for production start in the second half of 2026, expected to provide finishing capacity for Series 6 modules.
"South Carolina finishing facility is on track for production start in the second half of 2026, with equipment installation beginning this quarter. Upon completion, this facility is expected to provide finishing capacity for Series 6 modules initiated at our international factories and optimize freight, tariff and domestic content outcomes while benefiting from Section 45X module assembly tax credits."
- Mark Widmar, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Backlog And ASP
Backlog_and_ASP
As of March 31, 2026, First Solar's contracted backlog was 47.9 gigawatts at an aggregate transaction price of $14.4 billion, exclusive of technology adjusters with deliveries through 2030.
"As of March 31, 2026, our contracted backlog was 47.9 gigawatts at an aggregate transaction price of $14.4 billion, exclusive of technology adjusters with deliveries through 2030."
- Alexander Bradley, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
CuRe Technology Advantage
CuRe_Technology_Advantage
CuRe technology is expected to deliver up to 8% more lifetime specific energy yield than crystalline silicon Topcon, providing a competitive advantage for First Solar.
"With CuRe anticipated to deliver up to 8% more lifetime specific energy yield than crystalline silicon Topcon."
- Mark Widmar, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
US Manufacturing Utilization
US_Manufacturing_Utilization
First Solar's U.S. facilities operated at approximately 96% utilization in the quarter, demonstrating strong manufacturing performance.
"Our U.S. facilities operated at approximately 96% utilization."
- Mark Widmar, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $3.22 vs $2.87 est[FMP], +12.2% beat. D+1 movement: +4.9%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $3.22 vs $2.87 beat[FMP], stock +4.9% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $118.5M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 33.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $3.26[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $118.5M"[Alexander Bradley]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This FSLR (FSLR) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.