General Dynamics Corporation
GD - NYSE - $345.84 ▲ +%0.45
-
Earnings Wed 22 Jul

General opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

2 analysts' median target is $409[FMP target], stock is $346, +18.3% upside potential. After Q1 +11.7% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +1.6%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A-
BUY Council 3/6 - Moonshot 43

A- = MoonshotScore 43[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $13.4B[FMP est], EPS $3.88[FMP est]. 6 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$3.88 EPS Estimate Last year $4.17 - +4% YoY YoY
6 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 6 quarters

Q1 EPS +11.7% beat[FMP] but the stock +1.6% D+1[FMP D+1]. Kim Kuryea promised $203.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Kim Kuryea capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

40% Risk Indicator

Capex Increase

capex_increase

The company's capital expenditures were up over 40% to $203 million in the first quarter, and are expected to grow each quarter for the full year.

"Compared to the first quarter of 2025, capital expenditures were up over 40% to $203 million."

- Kimberly Kuryea, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
$16.45 Expectation / Guide

Eps Guidance Increase

eps_guidance_increase

The company raised its 2026 EPS guidance to a range of $16.45 to $16.55 to reflect its strong start.

"Our updated guidance for 2026 would be an EPS range of $16.45 to $16.55."

- Danny Deep, President - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
26.4% Investor Focus

Marine Systems Growth

marine_systems_growth

Marine Systems led the way with a 26.4% increase from improved operating performance across all of our shipyards coupled with the revenue increase.

"Each of the segments demonstrated better performance led by Marine Systems with a 26.4% increase from improved operating performance across all of our shipyards coupled with the revenue increase."

- Danny Deep, President - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
$2.2 billion Investor Focus

Strong Cash Flow

strong_cash_flow

The company's strong cash performance in the first quarter is highlighted by operating cash flow of $2.2 billion.

"The first quarter was a very strong start to the year with operating cash flow of $2.2 billion."

- Kimberly Kuryea, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
$131 billion Investor Focus

Record Backlog

record_backlog

The company's total backlog reached $131 billion, an impressive 48% increase over last year.

"The robust demand across our portfolio resulted in total backlog of $131 billion, an impressive 48% increase over last year and 11% higher than just a quarter ago."

- Kimberly Kuryea, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
$0.43 Investor Focus

Q1 Eps Beat

q1_eps_beat

The company beat consensus by $0.43 in the quarter due to more revenue and better operating margins.

"We beat consensus by $0.43 in the quarter on more revenue and better operating margins than expected by the sell side."

- Danny Deep, President - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 43 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth2.0Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+3.4%)
Gross Margin2.0Q1: low margin (15.9%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (10.5%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($2.0B, 9.6x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.9%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 57.5 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment5.0majority buy (54%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +18.3%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 57
Klarman value - target upside +18.3%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside +18.3%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
57.5 RSI 57.5 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+0.10 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$346 stock 0.1% above - short-term support
200d MA
$339 stock 2.1% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-17% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$409
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$346
Pre-earnings position
Support
$288
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$288-$409 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

General's last 8 quarters: 6 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$3.74 vs $3.55 est - -0.9%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$3.88 vs $3.70 est - +0.9%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$4.17 vs $4.11 est - -1.9%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$4.10 vs $3.67 est - +1.6%

Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $4.10 vs $3.67 est[FMP], +11.7% beat. D+1 movement: +1.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $3.76 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $4.10 vs $3.67 beat[FMP], stock +1.6% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $203.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 10.5%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $3.88 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $3.88[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $409[FMP target]; high target $444[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $3.88 + CapEx < $203.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $3.88[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $203.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $346[FMP] and median $409[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $3.76 or CapEx >= $203.0M
Threshold: EPS < $3.76[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $346 below SMA200 $339[FMP], if rejection continues, $288[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 2 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$409
12-month median target price (+18.3% upside potential)
13
BUY
10
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$288
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$346 - 50-day MA (above, +0.1%)
$339 - 200-day MA (above, +2.1%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - GD Q4 FY26
A-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $3.88[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $203.0M"[Kim Kuryea]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 22, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 23, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 5, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 22, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the GD earnings preview cover?

This GD (GD) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in GD earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.