Genuine Parts Company
GPC - NYSE - $104.72 ▼ -%0.50
-
Earnings Tue 28 Jul

Genuine opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

7 analysts' median target is $140[FMP target], stock is $105, +33.7% upside potential. After Q1 +-2.2% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -2.8%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
C+
BUY Council 3/6 - Moonshot 27

C+ = MoonshotScore 27[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $6.4B[FMP est], EPS $2.06[FMP est]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$2.06 EPS Estimate Last year $1.55 - -2% YoY YoY
0 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 0 quarters

Q1 EPS +-2.2% beat[FMP] but the stock -2.8% D+1[FMP D+1]. Herbert Nappier promised $97.6M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Herbert Nappier capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

6.10 Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Outlook Reaffirmation

fy26_outlook_reaffirmation

GPC is reaffirming its outlook for 2026, continuing to expect diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $6.10 to $6.60 and adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $7.50 to $8.

"For the full year, we continue to expect diluted earnings per share, which includes the expenses related to our restructuring efforts to be in the range of $6.10 to $6.60 and adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $7.50 to $8, up 5% at the midpoint of the range versus 2025."

- Herbert Nappier, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
4% Investor Focus

North America Auto Sales

north_america_auto_sales

Within North America, total sales in the U.S. were up approximately 4% for the quarter, with comparable sales up approximately 3% and price contribution of approximately 3%.

"Within North America, total sales in the U.S. were up approximately 4% for the quarter, with comparable sales up approximately 3% and price contribution of approximately 3%."

- William Stengel, Chair-Elect and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
100 million Investor Focus

Separation Cost Estimates

separation_cost_estimates

GPC estimates the range of cost is $100 million to $150 million for incremental run rate dis-synergy costs and stand-alone costs for the new public company.

"As we have outlined on Slide 11 of our earnings presentation, our estimated range of cost is $100 million to $150 million."

- Herbert Nappier, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
13% Investor Focus

International Automotive Sales

international_automotive_sales

Total sales during the quarter increased approximately 13%, with comparable sales slightly positive.

"Total sales during the quarter increased approximately 13%, with comparable sales slightly positive."

- William Stengel, Chair-Elect and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 27 / 100

9-pillar methodology. - strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth1.0Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+1.6%, below threshold)
Gross Margin4.0Q1: average margin (37.3%)
Operating Leverage0.0op margin weak (4.6%, under pressure)
Cash Runway3.0FCF negative ($-0.0B, external financing needed)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 43.5 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment4.0mixed (44% buy)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +33.7%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 43
Klarman value - target upside +33.7%
Buffett quality - ROE score 2/5
Munger valuation - target upside +33.7%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthWeak
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
43.5 RSI 43.5 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-2.70 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$108 stock 2.7% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$127 stock 17.2% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-30% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$140
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$105
Pre-earnings position
Support
$108
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$108-$140 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Genuine's last 8 quarters: 0 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$2.10 vs $2.06 est - +1.0%
MISS
Q3 FY25
$1.98 vs $2.02 est - -1.2%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$1.55 vs $1.82 est - -3.8%
MISS
Q1 FY26
$1.77 vs $1.81 est - -2.8%

Q1 (April 21, 2026): EPS $1.77 vs $1.81 est[FMP], +-2.2% beat. D+1 movement: -2.8%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.00 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $1.77 vs $1.81 beat[FMP], stock -2.8% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $97.6M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 4.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $2.06 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.06[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $140[FMP target]; high target $160[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.06 + CapEx < $97.6M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.06[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $97.6M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $105[FMP] and median $140[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.00 or CapEx >= $97.6M
Threshold: EPS < $2.00[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $105 below SMA200 $127[FMP], if rejection continues, $108[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 7 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$140
12-month median target price (+33.7% upside potential)
4
BUY
5
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$108
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$108 - 50-day MA (below, -2.7%)
$127 - 200-day MA (below, -17.2%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - GPC Q4 FY26
C+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.06[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $97.6M"[Herbert Nappier]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 28, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 29, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 11, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 28, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the GPC earnings preview cover?

This GPC (GPC) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in GPC earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.