The Home Depot, Inc.
HD - NYSE - $323.88 ▼ -%1.50
-
Earnings Tue 19 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-19 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Home opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

6 analysts' median target is $418[FMP target], stock is $324, +28.9% upside potential. After Q4 +7.5% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -2.3%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
BUY Council 4/6 - Moonshot 39

B = MoonshotScore 39[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $41.6B[FMP est], EPS $3.42[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$3.42 EPS Estimate Last year $2.72 - -4% YoY YoY
1 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters

Q4 EPS +7.5% beat[FMP] but the stock -2.3% D+1[FMP D+1]. Richard McPhail promised $1.1B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Richard McPhail capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

2.5% Investor Focus

Fy26 Sales Growth

fy26_sales_growth

The company expects total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5% for fiscal year 2026.

"Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, we expect total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5%, comparable sales growth of approximately flat to 2% and adjusted diluted earnings per share to grow approximately flat to 4%."

- Edward Decker, Chair, President and CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 24, 2026
11% Investor Focus

Online Sales Growth

online_sales_growth

Sales leveraging our digital platforms increased approximately 11% compared to the fourth quarter of last year.

"Turning to total company online comp sales. Sales leveraging our digital platforms increased approximately 11% compared to the fourth quarter of last year."

- William Bastek, Executive Vice President of Merchandising - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 24, 2026
2.5% Expectation / Guide

Capital Expenditures Guidance

capital_expenditures_guidance

The company plans to continue investing in its business with capital expenditures of approximately 2.5% of sales for fiscal 2026.

"We plan to continue investing in our business with capital expenditures of approximately 2.5% of sales for fiscal 2026."

- Richard McPhail, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 24, 2026
1,000 Investor Focus

Big Ticket Performance

big_ticket_performance

Big ticket comp transactions or those over $1,000 were positive 1.3% compared to the fourth quarter of last year.

"Big ticket comp transactions or those over $1,000 were positive 1.3% compared to the fourth quarter of last year."

- William Bastek, Executive Vice President of Merchandising - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 24, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 39 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q4 vs Q1: growth negative (-4.2%, contraction)
Gross Margin3.0Q4: average margin (32.6%)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (10.1%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($2.3B, 2.2x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 40.0 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment6.0majority buy (59%)
Council Score 4 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +28.9%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 40
Klarman value - target upside +28.9%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +28.9%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
40.0 RSI 40.0 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-5.70 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$343 stock 5.7% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$371 stock 12.6% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+10% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$418
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$324
Pre-earnings position
Support
$315
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$315-$418 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

The's last 8 quarters: 1 consecutive beats.

MISS
Q1 FY25
$3.56 vs $3.60 est - -1.6%
MISS
Q2 FY25
$4.68 vs $4.72 est - -1.3%
MISS
Q3 FY25
$3.74 vs $3.83 est - -0.6%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$2.72 vs $2.53 est - -2.3%

Q4 (February 24, 2026): EPS $2.72 vs $2.53 est[FMP], +7.5% beat. D+1 movement: -2.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $3.32 (no guidance)

Q4: EPS $2.72 vs $2.53 beat[FMP], stock -2.3% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q4 CapEx $1.1B[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 10.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $3.42 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $3.42[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $418[FMP target]; high target $454[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $3.42 + CapEx < $1.1B
Threshold: EPS approx $3.42[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $1.1B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $324[FMP] and median $418[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $3.32 or CapEx >= $1.1B
Threshold: EPS < $3.32[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $324 below SMA200 $371[FMP], if rejection continues, $315[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 6 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$418
12-month median target price (+28.9% upside potential)
22
BUY
15
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$315
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$343 - 50-day MA (below, -5.7%)
$371 - 200-day MA (below, -12.6%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - HD Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $3.42[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $1.1B"[Richard McPhail]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 19, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 20, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jul 3, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 19, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the HD earnings preview cover?

This HD (HD) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in HD earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.