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The Home Depot, Inc.
HD - NYSE - $311.40 ▼ -%1.91
-
Earnings Tue 19 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-19 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Home opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

6 analysts' median target is $418[FMP target], stock is $311, +34.1% vs the analyst consensus median. After Q4 +7.5% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -2.3%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
BUY Council 4/6 - Moonshot 39

B = MoonshotScore 39[multi-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Quick Answer

The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) Q4 consensus: revenue $41.6B[FMP est], EPS $3.42[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$3.42 EPS Estimate Last year $2.72 - -4% YoY YoY
1 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters

Q4 EPS +7.5% beat[FMP] but the stock -2.3% D+1[FMP D+1].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

2.5% Investor Focus

Fy26 Sales Growth

fy26_sales_growth

The company expects total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5% for fiscal year 2026.

"Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, we expect total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5%, comparable sales growth of approximately flat to 2% and adjusted diluted earnings per share to grow approximately flat to 4%."

- Edward Decker, Chair, President and CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 24, 2026
2.5% Investor Focus

Fy26 Comp Sales Growth

fy26_comp_sales_growth

The company expects comparable sales growth of approximately flat to 2% for fiscal year 2026.

"Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, we expect total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5%, comparable sales growth of approximately flat to 2% and adjusted diluted earnings per share to grow approximately flat to 4%."

- Edward Decker, Chair, President and CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 24, 2026
2.5% Investor Focus

Fy26 Eps Growth

fy26_eps_growth

The company expects adjusted diluted earnings per share to grow approximately flat to 4% for fiscal year 2026.

"Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, we expect total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5%, comparable sales growth of approximately flat to 2% and adjusted diluted earnings per share to grow approximately flat to 4%."

- Edward Decker, Chair, President and CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 24, 2026
2.5% Expectation / Guide

Capital Expenditures Guidance

capital_expenditures_guidance

The company plans to continue investing in our business with capital expenditures of approximately 2.5% of sales for fiscal 2026.

"We plan to continue investing in our business with capital expenditures of approximately 2.5% of sales for fiscal 2026."

- Richard McPhail, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 24, 2026
15 Investor Focus

New Store Expansion

new_store_expansion

The company plans to open approximately 15 new stores and 40 to 50 new SRS locations in fiscal 2026.

"We plan to open approximately 15 new stores and 40 to 50 new SRS locations."

- Richard McPhail, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 24, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 39 / 100

multi-pillar methodology. Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q4 vs Q1: growth negative (-4.2%, contraction)
Gross Margin3.0Q4: average margin (32.6%)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (10.1%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($2.3B, 2.2x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 36.2 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment6.0majority buy (61%)
Council Score 4 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +34.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 36
Klarman value - target upside +34.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +34.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
36.2 RSI 36.2 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-7.30 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$336 stock 7.3% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$369 stock 15.7% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-11% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$418
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$311
Pre-earnings position
Support
$314
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$314-$418 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

The's last 8 quarters: 1 consecutive beats.

MISS
Q1 FY25
$3.56 vs $3.60 est - -1.6%
MISS
Q2 FY25
$4.68 vs $4.72 est - -1.3%
MISS
Q3 FY25
$3.74 vs $3.83 est - -0.6%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$2.72 vs $2.53 est - -2.3%

Q4 (February 24, 2026): EPS $2.72 vs $2.53 est[FMP], +7.5% beat. D+1 movement: -2.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $3.32 (no guidance)

Q4: EPS $2.72 vs $2.53 beat[FMP], stock -2.3% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q4 CapEx $1.1B[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 10.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $3.42 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $3.42[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $418[FMP target]; high target $454[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $3.42 + CapEx < $1.1B
Threshold: EPS approx $3.42[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $1.1B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $311[FMP] and median $418[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $3.32 or CapEx >= $1.1B
Threshold: EPS < $3.32[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $311 below SMA200 $369[FMP], if rejection continues, $314[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 6 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$418
12-month median target price (+34.1% gap to the analyst consensus median)
22
BUY
14
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$314
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$336 - 50-day MA (below, -7.3%)
$369 - 200-day MA (below, -15.7%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - HD Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $3.42[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $1.1B". Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 19, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 20, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jul 3, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 19, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the HD earnings preview cover?

This The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in HD earnings?

The Home Depot, Inc. (HD): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

The Home Depot, Inc. (HD): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

The Home Depot, Inc. (HD): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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