0 analysts' median target is $155[FMP target], stock is $132, +17.4% upside potential. After Q1 +-8.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -3.7%.
A = MoonshotScore 40[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $7.4B[FMP est], EPS $3.31[FMP est]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +-8.8% beat[FMP] but the stock -3.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. Beth Costello promised $31.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Beth Costello capex transcript].
Watchlist
Business Insurance Growth
business_insurance_growth
The Hartford continues to drive profitable growth in Business Insurance through disciplined underwriting and technology-enabled execution.
"In Business Insurance, a diversified portfolio, strong distribution relationships, disciplined underwriting and technology-enabled execution continue to drive profitable growth at attractive returns."
- Christopher Swift, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 24, 2026
Business Insurance Pricing
business_insurance_pricing
The Hartford's Business Insurance renewal written pricing, excluding workers' compensation, remained relatively consistent at 6% in the quarter.
"Business Insurance renewal written pricing, excluding workers' compensation, remained relatively consistent at 6% in the quarter."
- Christopher Swift, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 24, 2026
Employee Benefits Leadership
employee_benefits_leadership
The Hartford's leadership in the Employee Benefits business is anchored by its position in absence and leave solutions at the large end of the market, and ongoing investments will enable them to extend those capabilities to small and midsized customers.
"Employee Benefits remains a high-quality accretive business where our leadership in absence and leave positions us well at the large end of the market and ongoing investments will enable us to extend those capabilities to small and midsized customers."
- Christopher Swift, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 24, 2026
Small Business Performance
small_business_performance
The Hartford's small business strategy is supported by a flexible multichannel go-to-market model, providing customers with multiple ways to engage.
"Our small business strategy is supported by a flexible multichannel go-to-market model. Customers have multiple ways to engage, whether it's through agents directly or via embedded capabilities such as payroll providers."
- Christopher Swift, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 24, 2026
Personal Insurance Expansion
personal_insurance_expansion
The Hartford remains focused on thoughtful market share expansion in Personal Insurance, supported by continued progress in the agency channel.
"In Personal Insurance, our focus remains on thoughtful market share expansion, supported by continued progress in the agency channel."
- Christopher Swift, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 24, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (April 24, 2026): EPS $3.09 vs $3.39 est[FMP], +-8.8% beat. D+1 movement: -3.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $3.09 vs $3.39 beat[FMP], stock -3.7% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $31.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 14.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Monday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Monday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $3.31[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $31.0M"[Beth Costello]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This HIG (HIG) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.