17 analysts' median target is $224[FMP target], stock is $185, +20.9% upside potential. After Q1 +15.2% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.8%.
B+ = MoonshotScore 50[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $2.6B[FMP est], EPS $1.44[FMP est]. 6 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +15.2% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.8% D+1[FMP D+1]. Steve Voskuil promised $114.6M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Steve Voskuil capex transcript].
Watchlist
Gross Margin Improvement
gross_margin_improvement
Gross margins are expected to increase by nearly 3% in Q2 and continue to increase in the back half of the year.
"we're expecting in Q2 gross margins to increase by nearly 300 basis points versus the prior year period. So that's where you really start to see the inflection. And then as we get to the back half of the year, we expect something great basis points."
- Steven Voskuil - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Salty Snacks Growth
salty_snacks_growth
Growth in the salty snacks segment is driven by private label products, but Hershey's core brands are up nearly 10%.
"One thing that I would say on snacks are on our salty snacks is -- that's primarily driven by private label. And so our core brands in salty are up nearly 10%. So that is not the issue."
- Kirk Tanner - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
H2 Topline Momentum
h2_topline_momentum
Hershey is confident in H2 topline momentum, driven by strong seasons plan, positive resets, and innovation.
"Yes. Good question. Yes, we have confidence in H2, driven by a few things. One, we see a really strong seasons plan for the second half. Our tentpole will deliver a full point of growth Americana, the Hershey movie, we've got a lot built into that, a lot of support from our customers."
- Kirk Tanner - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Macro Environment Impact
macro_environment_impact
The macro environment is tracking within expectations for the year, including SNAP effects.
"But overall, the macro environment is tracking within our expectations of the year. When we talk about SNAP specifically, we realistically modeled the possible effects right from the beginning."
- Kirk Tanner - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Easter Sell Through Performance
easter_sell_through_performance
Easter sell-through exceeded expectations, and Hershey's share during the Easter season was also ahead of expectations.
"But we're very happy with our performance and the sell-through that we saw those exceeded our expectation, and our share was also ahead of our expectations coming out of Easter."
- Kirk Tanner - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
North America Confectionery Competition
north_america_confectionery_competition
Despite increased competition in the North America confectionery market, the pricing environment remains rational.
"Yes. I'd start with competition continues to be highly rational. There's no change in the pricing environment. I just want to start with that."
- Kirk Tanner - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $2.35 vs $2.04 est[FMP], +15.2% beat. D+1 movement: -1.8%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $2.35 vs $2.04 beat[FMP], stock -1.8% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $114.6M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 20.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.44[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $114.6M"[Steve Voskuil]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This HSY (HSY) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.