Humana Inc.
HUM - NYSE - $274.96 ▲ +%11.27
-
Earnings Wed 29 Jul

Humana opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

19 analysts' median target is $259[FMP target], stock is $275, -5.8% upside potential. After Q1 +3.4% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -2.7%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A-
SELL Council 1/6 - Moonshot 44

A- = MoonshotScore 44[9-pillar formula] + Council 1/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $40.6B[FMP est], EPS $6.46[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$6.46 EPS Estimate Last year $-3.96 - +3% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q1 EPS +3.4% beat[FMP] but the stock -2.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. Celeste Mellet promised $121.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Celeste Mellet capex transcript].

Watchlist

3 metrics stand out this quarter.

3 Investor Focus

Member Growth On Track

member_growth_on_track

Humana's member growth trajectory is on track, and membership, both new and returning, is performing as expected 3 months into the year.

"First of all, our member growth trajectory is on track. Now we will, and we have and we will continue to manage distribution and growth dynamically if things change, but our growth trajectory is on track. Second, I want to emphasize that membership, both new and returning, is performing as expected 3 months into the year."

- James Rechtin, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
28 Expectation / Guide

Stars Rating Outlook

stars_rating_outlook

Humana remains confident that it's on track to return to top quartile Stars results in BY '28 and is seeing a strong early start for BY '29 Stars.

"Our outlook on BY '28 Stars has not changed. We continue to be confident that we're on the right track to return to top quartile Stars results in BY '28. For BY '29 Stars, we are seeing a strong early start."

- James Rechtin, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
1 Investor Focus

Balance Sheet Optimization

balance_sheet_optimization

Humana has implemented several initiatives to strengthen its balance sheet and has bolstered liquidity to address future funding needs.

"Over the last 12 months, we have made considerable progress towards this end. Our efforts include bolstering liquidity and addressing future funding needs with rating agency-friendly instruments, such as the $1 billion junior subordinated notes we completed in March, which is expected to fund 2027 maturities."

- Celeste Mellet, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 44 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. Gross Margin weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+22.4%)
Gross Margin1.0Q1: low margin (15.0%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage0.0op margin weak (4.0%, under pressure)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($1.1B, 9.4x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 84.6 overbought, 50d above
News Sentiment3.0mixed (31% buy)
Council Score 1 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 1 bullish (Ken Griffin), 3 bearish (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger), 2 neutral (Ray Dalio, Buffett).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside -5.8%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 85
Klarman value - target upside -5.8%
Buffett quality - ROE score 3/5
Munger valuation - target upside -5.8%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Overvalued

Quality business, but price is high.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
84.6 RSI 84.6 overbought, 50d above
MACD
+40.10 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$196 stock 40.1% above - short-term support
200d MA
$241 stock 14.1% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+57% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$259
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$275
Pre-earnings position
Support
$205
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$205-$259 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Humana beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$6.27 vs $5.92 est - -4.4%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$3.24 vs $2.93 est - -5.2%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$-3.96 vs $-4.00 est - +2.0%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$10.31 vs $9.97 est - -2.7%

Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $10.31 vs $9.97 est[FMP], +3.4% beat. D+1 movement: -2.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $6.27 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $10.31 vs $9.97 beat[FMP], stock -2.7% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $121.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 4.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $6.46 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $6.46[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $259[FMP target]; high target $344[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $6.46 + CapEx < $121.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $6.46[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $121.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $275[FMP] and median $259[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $6.27 or CapEx >= $121.0M
Threshold: EPS < $6.27[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $275 below SMA200 $241[FMP], if rejection continues, $205[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 19 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$259
12-month median target price (-5.8% upside potential)
8
BUY
16
HOLD
2
SELL
Risk Management
$205
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$196 - 50-day MA (above, +40.1%)
$241 - 200-day MA (above, +14.1%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - HUM Q4 FY26
A-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $6.46[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $121.0M"[Celeste Mellet]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days HUM dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 29, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 30, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 12, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 29, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the HUM earnings preview cover?

This HUM (HUM) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in HUM earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.