12 analysts' median target is $280[FMP target], stock is $240, +16.9% upside potential. After Q4 +8.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +2.2%.
B = MoonshotScore 54[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $2.2B[FMP est], EPS $1.11[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q4 EPS +8.8% beat[FMP] but the stock +2.2% D+1[FMP D+1]. Patrick Winterlich promised $124.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Patrick Winterlich capex transcript].
Watchlist
Engine Products Growth
engine_products_growth
The Engine Products team delivered another record quarter for revenue, EBITDA and EBITDA margin. Quarterly revenue increased 20% to $1.16 billion.
"The Engine Products team delivered another record quarter for revenue, EBITDA and EBITDA margin. Quarterly revenue increased 20% to $1.16 billion, commercial aerospace was up 17%, and defense aerospace was up 18%."
- Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
Defense Aerospace Growth
defense_aerospace_growth
Defense aerospace growth continued to be robust at 20% in the fourth quarter, driven by engine spares, which increased 32% as well as new F-35 aircraft builds.
"Defense aerospace growth continued to be robust at 20% in the fourth quarter. For the full year, Defense aerospace was up 21%, driven by engine spares, which increased 32% as well as new F-35 aircraft builds."
- Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
Spares Revenue Growth
spares_revenue_growth
Spares revenue accelerated throughout 2025 and now represents 21% of total revenue versus 17% in 2024 and 11% before and 11% in 2019.
"Spares revenue accelerated throughout 2025 and now represents 21% of total revenue versus 17% in 2024 and 11% before and 11% in 2019."
- Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
Gas Turbine Growth
gas_turbine_growth
Gas turbine growth has been very strong with revenue up 32% in the fourth quarter, driven by the increased demand for electricity generation, especially from natural gas for data centers.
"Gas turbine growth has been very strong with revenue up 32% in the fourth quarter and up 25% for the full year. Gas turbine growth is driven by the increased demand for electricity generation, especially from natural gas for data centers."
- Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
Commercial Aerospace Growth
commercial_aerospace_growth
Commercial aerospace growth remained strong throughout 2025, driven by accelerating demand for engine spares and a record backlog for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft.
"Commercial aerospace growth remained strong throughout 2025, with revenue up 13% in the fourth quarter and up 12% for the full year."
- Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
EBITDA Margin Increase
EBITDA_margin_increase
Howmet's EBITDA margin increased 350 basis points to 29.3% in 2025 with a fourth quarter exit rate of 30.1%.
"EBITDA margin increased 350 basis points to 29.3% with a fourth quarter exit rate of 30.1%."
- Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and News Sentiment strong. Gross Margin weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q4 (February 12, 2026): EPS $1.05 vs $0.96 est[FMP], +8.8% beat. D+1 movement: +2.2%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q4: EPS $1.05 vs $0.96 beat[FMP], stock +2.2% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.
Q4 CapEx $124.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 26.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.11[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $124.0M"[Patrick Winterlich]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This HWM (HWM) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.