7 analysts' median target is $300[FMP target], stock is $275, +8.9% upside potential. After Q1 +-22.5% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -0.7%.
B = MoonshotScore 60[multi-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $2.4B[FMP est], EPS $1.24[FMP est]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +-22.5% beat[FMP] but the stock -0.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. Patrick Winterlich promised $94.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Patrick Winterlich capex transcript].
Watchlist
Fy26 Guidance Increase
fy26_guidance_increase
The company raised its full year 2026 revenue growth guidance, excluding M&A impact, from 10% to 14%, reflecting increased confidence for the year.
"Our full year guide numbers are revenue of $9.65 billion, plus or minus $75 million; EBITDA of $3.06 billion, plus or minus $35 million; earnings per share of $4.94, plus or minus $0.06 and free cash flow of $1.75 billion, plus or minus $50 million, and that's after increasing our capital expenditure once again. It's noteworthy that our full year economic -- sorry, our full year revenue growth guide, excluding the impact of M&A, rises from 10% to 14%."
- John Plant, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
Capex Share Buybacks
capex_share_buybacks
Howmet continued high capital expenditure to support future organic growth, while executing $300 million in share buybacks during the quarter and an additional $150 million in April.
"Capital expenditure continued at a high rate, supporting the future organic growth rate of the company. ... Cash generation was $359 million, reflecting strong earnings and continued improvement in working capital efficiency. This enabled share buyback of $300 million during the quarter and a further $150 million in April."
- John Plant, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
Gas Turbine Market Growth
gas_turbine_market_growth
The Gas Turbine segment demonstrated very strong growth of 39%, driven by increased demand for electricity generation, especially from natural gas for data centers.
"Gas Turbine growth remained very strong with revenue up 39%. Gas turbine growth is driven by the increased demand for electricity generation, especially from natural gas for data centers."
- Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
Q1 Financial Performance
q1_financial_performance
Howmet delivered a strong start to 2026 with sales of $2.31 billion, EBITDA of $740 million, and a record EBITDA margin rate of 32%, marking an increase of 320 basis points over the prior year's equivalent quarter.
"Sales were $2.31 billion, EBITDA of $740 million and earnings per share of $1.22. The EBITDA margin rate was 32%, and this margin was an increase of 320 basis points over the equivalent quarter last year."
- John Plant, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
Commercial Aerospace Demand
commercial_aerospace_demand
Commercial Aerospace segment achieved strong growth of 20%, driven by accelerating demand for engine spares and underpinned by the record backlog for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft.
"Commercial Aerospace growth was strong at 20%, driven by accelerating demand for engine spares and underpinned by the record backlog for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft with reduced carbon emissions. Commercial Aerospace engine spares were up 48% in the first quarter with both legacy and next-generation engine spares contributing."
- Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
multi-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and Price Momentum strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (May 7, 2026): EPS $0.86 vs $1.11 est[FMP], +-22.5% beat. D+1 movement: -0.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $0.86 vs $1.11 beat[FMP], stock -0.7% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $94.0M[FMP cashflow]. Patrick Winterlich Q1 transcript: "Capital expenditure continued at a high rate, supporting the future organic growth rate of the company."[Patrick Winterlich transcript]. Q1 op margin 31.7%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
"Capital expenditure continued at a high rate, supporting the future organic growth rate of the company."
- Patrick Winterlich, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.24[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $94.0M"[Patrick Winterlich]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
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Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.