5 analysts' median target is $44[FMP target], stock is $33, +33.2% upside potential. After Q1 +-16.7% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +4.4%.
C+ = MoonshotScore 29[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $6.2B[FMP est], EPS $-0.04[FMP est]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +-16.7% beat[FMP] but the stock +4.4% D+1[FMP D+1]. Lance Loeffler promised $517.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Lance Loeffler capex transcript].
Watchlist
North America Volume Outlook
north_america_volume_outlook
International Paper expects its North American volumes to be up about 3% in the second quarter and continue to expect to outperform the industry by about 2% on a full year basis.
"Looking ahead to the second quarter, we expect our North American volumes to be up about 3% with the industry again tracking flat. And on a full year basis, we continue to expect to outperform the industry by about 2%."
- Andrew Silvernail - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Packaging Solutions North America Outlook
packaging_solutions_north_america_outlook
International Paper has updated its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook for Packaging Solutions North America to $2.35 billion to $2.5 billion due to the unfavorable impact of the macro environment, winter weather, and weaker-than-expected operating performance.
"At a high level, the full year outlook reflects unfavorable impact of the macro environment, winter weather, and weaker-than-expected operating performance with published pricing actions providing a meaningful offset."
- Lance Loeffler - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Emea Cost Savings
emea_cost_savings
International Paper has achieved run rate cost savings of more than $200 million in total in EMEA, increasing by roughly $40 million since last quarter.
"When we shared this slide last quarter, we had approximately $160 million of run rate cost savings. Since then, we've continued to make progress, increasing run rate savings by roughly $40 million to more than $200 million in total."
- Andrew Silvernail - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Full Year Industry Demand Outlook
full_year_industry_demand_outlook
Due to macro trends, International Paper's full year 2026 industry demand outlook is now approximately flat year-over-year compared to prior assumptions of flat to up 1%.
"Lastly, due to macro trends, our full year 2026 industry demand outlook is now approximately flat year-over-year compared to prior assumptions of flat to up 1%."
- Andrew Silvernail - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
North America Volume Outperformance
north_america_volume_outperformance
International Paper outperformed the market in North America for the third consecutive quarter, with box shipments exceeding the industry by 3%.
"In North America, we delivered above-market growth for the third straight quarter with box shipments exceeding the industry by 3% as planned customer wins came through."
- Andrew Silvernail - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. - strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $0.15 vs $0.18 est[FMP], +-16.7% beat. D+1 movement: +4.4%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $0.15 vs $0.18 beat[FMP], stock +4.4% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $517.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 2.9%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $-0.04[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $517.0M"[Lance Loeffler]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This IP (IP) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.