Ingersoll Rand Inc.
IR - NYSE - $75.75 ▼ -%2.26
-
Earnings Thu 30 Jul

Ingersoll opens the
books on Thursday evening.

6 analysts' median target is $99[FMP target], stock is $76, +30.7% upside potential. After Q1 +4.1% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -4.6%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
BUY Council 3/6 - Moonshot 40

B+ = MoonshotScore 40[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $2.0B[FMP est], EPS $0.83[FMP est]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$0.83 EPS Estimate Last year $0.96 - +4% YoY YoY
2 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 2 quarters

Q1 EPS +4.1% beat[FMP] but the stock -4.6% D+1[FMP D+1]. Vik Kini promised $36.3M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Vik Kini capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

15% Risk Indicator

Pst Margin Improvement

pst_margin_improvement

PST delivered adjusted EBITDA growth of 15% with a 120 basis points year-over-year margin improvement, reflecting continued strong operational execution.

"PST delivered adjusted EBITDA of $122 million, which was up 15% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA margins improved 120 basis points year-over-year, reflecting continued strong operational execution."

- Vicente Reynal, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
2.5% Expectation / Guide

Organic Growth Outlook

organic_growth_outlook

Ingersoll Rand expects organic growth of 1% for 2026.

"Total company revenue is expected to grow between 2.5% and 4.5%. And driven by organic growth of 1% at the midpoint"

- Vicente Reynal, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
5% Investor Focus

Its Order Growth

its_order_growth

ITS orders finished up 5% for the first quarter with a book-to-bill of 1.08x.

"ITS orders finished up 5% for the first quarter. Book-to-bill for the quarter was 1.08x."

- Vicente Reynal, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
2026 Expectation / Guide

Full Year Guidance Reaffirmation

full_year_guidance_reaffirmation

Ingersoll Rand is reaffirming its full year 2026 revenue and EPS guidance.

"As we move to Slide 9, we are reaffirming our full year guidance for 2026."

- Vicente Reynal, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
0.5% Risk Indicator

Fx Tailwind

fx_tailwind

Ingersoll Rand expects FX to be a tailwind of approximately 0.5% in 2026.

"And finally, we expect FX to be a tailwind of approximately 0.5%."

- Vicente Reynal, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
2% Investor Focus

M&A Contribution

m&a_contribution

Ingersoll Rand expects approximately 2% revenue growth from completed acquisitions in 2026.

"growth from M&A of approximately 2%, which includes the carryover impact from all transactions completed as well as the recently announced signed transaction of funds."

- Vicente Reynal, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 40 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-2.2%, contraction)
Gross Margin4.0Q1: average margin (42.9%)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (15.7%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.2B, 4.5x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 38.3 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment5.0majority buy (50%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +30.7%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 38
Klarman value - target upside +30.7%
Buffett quality - ROE score 3/5
Munger valuation - target upside +30.7%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
38.3 RSI 38.3 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-8.90 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$83 stock 8.9% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$83 stock 8.2% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-33% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$99
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$76
Pre-earnings position
Support
$70
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$70-$99 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Ingersoll's last 8 quarters: 2 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$0.80 vs $0.80 est - -11.4%
MISS
Q3 FY25
$0.86 vs $0.86 est - -3.0%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$0.96 vs $0.91 est - +4.6%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$0.77 vs $0.74 est - -4.6%

Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $0.77 vs $0.74 est[FMP], +4.1% beat. D+1 movement: -4.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $0.81 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $0.77 vs $0.74 beat[FMP], stock -4.6% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $36.3M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 15.7%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $0.83 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $0.83[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $99[FMP target]; high target $110[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $0.83 + CapEx < $36.3M
Threshold: EPS approx $0.83[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $36.3M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $76[FMP] and median $99[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $0.81 or CapEx >= $36.3M
Threshold: EPS < $0.81[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $76 below SMA200 $83[FMP], if rejection continues, $70[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 6 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$99
12-month median target price (+30.7% upside potential)
8
BUY
8
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$70
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$83 - 50-day MA (below, -8.9%)
$83 - 200-day MA (below, -8.2%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - IR Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $0.83[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $36.3M"[Vik Kini]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 30, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 31, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 13, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 30, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the IR earnings preview cover?

This IR (IR) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in IR earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.