J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.
JBHT - NASDAQ - $245.40 ▲ +%1.33
-
Earnings Tue 21 Jul

J.B. opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

11 analysts' median target is $230[FMP target], stock is $245, -6.3% upside potential. After Q1 +2.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +6.3%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
SELL Council 2/6 - Moonshot 44

B+ = MoonshotScore 44[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $3.2B[FMP est], EPS $1.69[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.69 EPS Estimate Last year $1.90 - +29% YoY YoY
5 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 5 quarters

Q1 EPS +2.8% beat[FMP] but the stock +6.3% D+1[FMP D+1]. Brad Delco promised $110.3M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Brad Delco capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

$600 million Expectation / Guide

Capex Guidance

capex_guidance

J.B. Hunt is reiterating its guidance of a $600 million to $800 million net CapEx plan for the year, with success-based growth opportunities in Dedicated influencing this range.

"We continue to prioritize reinvestment in the business and will reiterate our guidance of a $600 million to $800 million net CapEx plan for the year. Success-based growth opportunities in Dedicated will continue to be the main catalyst to influence this range."

- Brad Delco, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 15, 2026
295 Investor Focus

Dedicated Truck Sales

dedicated_truck_sales

J.B. Hunt's Dedicated business remains confident in achieving its full-year target for net truck sales of 800 to 1 thousand new trucks this year, with a strong and broad sales pipeline.

"During the first quarter, we sold approximately 295 trucks and remain confident in our ability to achieve our full-year target for net truck sales of 800 to 1 thousand new trucks this year. Our sales pipeline is strong and strengthening, while also broad with a lot of diverse fleets from both a customer size and industry perspective."

- Brad Hicks, President of Dedicated Contract Services - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 15, 2026
- Investor Focus

Intermodal Volume Growth

intermodal_volume_growth

J.B. Hunt's intermodal business achieved record first-quarter volume, driven by a focus on operational excellence.

"Our intermodal business executed extremely well on our strategy during the first quarter with high service levels to meet elevated customer demand despite some really harsh weather conditions in parts of the country."

- Darren Field, President of Intermodal - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 15, 2026
- Investor Focus

Truckload Market Shift

truckload_market_shift

J.B. Hunt notes a structural shift in the truckload market, with capacity steadily exiting due to regulatory enforcement, rising costs, and inadequate financial performance.

"Capacity has been steadily exiting for an extended period driven by regulatory enforcement, rising costs, and financial performance that does not support capital reinvestment."

- Spencer Frazier, EVP of Sales and Marketing - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 15, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 44 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth2.0Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+4.4%)
Gross Margin3.0Q1: low margin (28.3%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (6.8%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.2B, 2.2x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 56.8 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment5.0majority buy (54%)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ken Griffin, Buffett), 2 bearish (Klarman, Munger), 2 neutral (Ray Dalio, Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside -6.3%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 57
Klarman value - target upside -6.3%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside -6.3%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Overvalued

Quality business, but price is high.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
56.8 RSI 56.8 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+8.80 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$226 stock 8.8% above - short-term support
200d MA
$186 stock 32.0% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-23% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$230
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$245
Pre-earnings position
Support
$158
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$158-$230 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

J.B.'s last 8 quarters: 5 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.31 vs $1.30 est - +1.7%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.76 vs $1.46 est - +22.1%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.90 vs $1.81 est - -1.0%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.49 vs $1.45 est - +6.3%

Q1 (April 15, 2026): EPS $1.49 vs $1.45 est[FMP], +2.8% beat. D+1 movement: +6.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.64 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $1.49 vs $1.45 beat[FMP], stock +6.3% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $110.3M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 6.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.69 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.69[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $230[FMP target]; high target $285[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.69 + CapEx < $110.3M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.69[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $110.3M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $245[FMP] and median $230[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.64 or CapEx >= $110.3M
Threshold: EPS < $1.64[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $245 below SMA200 $186[FMP], if rejection continues, $158[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 11 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$230
12-month median target price (-6.3% upside potential)
13
BUY
10
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$158
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$226 - 50-day MA (above, +8.8%)
$186 - 200-day MA (above, +32.0%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - JBHT Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.69[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $110.3M"[Brad Delco]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 21, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 22, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 4, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 21, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the JBHT earnings preview cover?

This JBHT (JBHT) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in JBHT earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.