JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM - NYSE - $312.47 ▼ -%0.24
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Earnings
Tue 14 Jul
JPMorgan opens the
books on Tuesday evening.
7 analysts' median target is $332[FMP target], stock is $312, +6.3% upside potential. After Q1 +8.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.7%.
↓
summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
HOLD
Council 3/6
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Moonshot 43
B+ = MoonshotScore 43[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $48.7B[FMP est], EPS $5.40[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
$5.40
EPS Estimate
Last year $4.63 - +9% YoY YoY
-
Card Guidance
Previous quarter was 0%
1
Beat Streak
Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters
Q1 EPS +8.6% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. Jeremy Barnum promised $0 CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Jeremy Barnum capex transcript].
Deposit Growth
deposit_growth
Average deposits were up 2% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, driven by account growth and moderating yield-seeking flows.
"Average deposits were up 2% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, driven by account growth and moderating yield-seeking flows."
- Jeremy Barnum, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 14, 2026
$103 billion
Expectation / Guide
Total Nii Outlook
total_nii_outlook
We now expect total NII to be approximately $103 billion as a function of market NII decreasing to about $8 billion, predominantly due to rates, which we expect will be primarily offset in NIR.
"We now expect total NII to be approximately $103 billion as a function of market NII decreasing to about $8 billion, predominantly due to rates, which we expect will be primarily offset in NIR."
- Jeremy Barnum, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 14, 2026
$95 billion
Expectation / Guide
JPMorgan Chase continues to expect NII ex Markets to be about $95 billion for full year 2026.
"In terms of the full year 2026 outlook, we continue to expect NII ex Markets to be about $95 billion."
- Jeremy Barnum, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 14, 2026
$105 billion
Expectation / Guide
Expense Outlook
expense_outlook
The adjusted expense outlook continues to be about $105 billion
"The adjusted expense outlook continues to be about $105 billion"
- Jeremy Barnum, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 14, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?
MoonshotScore
43 / 100
9-pillar methodology. Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth3.0
Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+5.4%)
Gross Margin6.0
Q1: high margin (64.3%)
Operating Leverage3.0
op margin healthy (27.8%)
Cash Runway3.0
FCF negative ($-211.8B, external financing needed)
R&D Intensity3.0
low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0
RSI 58.0 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment5.0
majority buy (52%)
Council Score
3 / 6 Bullish
6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +6.3%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 58
Klarman value - target upside +6.3%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +6.3%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued
Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->
Interest CoverageAdequate
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning
What levels is the stock being tested at?
RSI(14)
58.0
RSI 58.0 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+4.30
price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$300
stock 4.3% above - short-term support
200d MA
$305
stock 2.5% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-17%
decrease - low participation
Resistance
$332
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$312
Pre-earnings position
Support
$259
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$259-$332 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger
Past Performance
JPMorgan's last 8 quarters: 1 consecutive beats.
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$4.96 vs $4.48 est - -0.3%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$5.07 vs $4.85 est - +1.2%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$4.63 vs $4.85 est - -1.0%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$5.94 vs $5.47 est - -1.7%
Q1 (April 14, 2026): EPS $5.94 vs $5.47 est[FMP], +8.6% beat. D+1 movement: -1.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Three scenarios: what could happen?
EPS < $5.24 (no guidance)
Q1: EPS $5.94 vs $5.47 beat[FMP], stock -1.7% D+1[FMP].
"-"
- Jeremy Barnum, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 14, 2026
Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Insider trading signal
Form 4 data is marked in the table - this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
Our FMP plan does not provide Form 4 insider feed for this stock. This page does not generate assumptions - SEC EDGAR Form 4 can be monitored directly.
CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $0[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 27.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
"-"
- Jeremy Barnum, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 14, 2026
Framework - Position discipline
After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $5.40 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $5.40[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $332[FMP target]; high target $391[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $5.40 + CapEx < $0
Threshold: EPS approx $5.40[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $0[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $312[FMP] and median $332[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $5.24 or CapEx >= $0
Threshold: EPS < $5.24[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $312 below SMA200 $305[FMP], if rejection continues, $259[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.
Market Outlook
What do 7 analysts say?
Wall Street Consensus
$332
12-month median target price (+6.3% upside potential)
Risk Management
$259
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$300 - 50-day MA (above, +4.3%)
$305 - 200-day MA (above, +2.5%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - JPM Q4 FY26
B+
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $5.40[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $0"[Jeremy Barnum]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison
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3 subscriptions. 1 platform.
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Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look
Jul 14, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 15, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Aug 28, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 14, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the JPM earnings preview cover?
This JPM (JPM) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
What should investors watch for in JPM earnings?
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.