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JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM - NYSE - $334.75 (as of ) ▼ -0.15%
-
Earnings Thu 14 Jan

JPMorgan opens the
books on Thursday evening.

The median of 9 price targets is $3751, stock is $335, +12.0% vs the analyst consensus median. Stock move on the next trading day: +1.2%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds ·
B+
Council 2/6 - Historical V1 score 44

B+ — FMP rating1. Form 4: 6 transactions1.

Quick Answer

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Q4 consensus: revenue $51.1B1, EPS $5.901. 0 consecutive quarters of beat1.

Detailed analysis below ↓
$5.90 EPS Estimate Last year $4.63 - +27% YoY
0 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 0 quarters

Q3 FY26 EPS $5.75 vs $5.93 estimate: miss (-3.0%)1. Stock move on D+1: +1.2%1.

Next report

What to watch in Q4 FY26 (Jan 14, 2027)

  • EPS: consensus $5.90, against $4.63 in the same quarter a year ago (+27%).
  • Revenue: consensus $51.1B.

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

$15.3B Investor Focus

Q3 Results

JPMorgan reported Q3 net income of $15.3 billion, EPS of $5.57 and an ROTCE of 20%.

Jeremy Barnum, CFO - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - October 13, 2026
$114B Investor Focus

Expenses 2027 Consensus

Management's preliminary 2027 expense view is not far from the roughly $114 billion consensus.

Jeremy Barnum, CFO - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - October 13, 2026
$107B Investor Focus

Nii 2027 Central Case

Management gave a 2027 NII ex-markets central case of approximately $107 billion, to be refined next quarter.

Jeremy Barnum, CFO - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - October 13, 2026
6% Investor Focus

Capital Buyback Redeployment

Dimon explained the smaller buyback by saying redeploying excess capital organically beats repurchasing stock at roughly a 6% earnings yield.

James Dimon, Chairman and CEO - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - October 13, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 6 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

Historical V1 score 44 / 100

Historical V1 earnings-model score (archived, Oct 21, 2026) — not the current MoonshotScore. Current MoonshotScore: JPM stock page

multi-pillar methodology. - strong. Operating Leverage weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth5.0Q3 vs Q4: healthy growth (+9.5%)
Gross Margin6.0Q3: high margin (62.2%)
Operating Leverage3.0op margin healthy (26.4%)
Cash Runway3.0FCF $0.0B - CapEx not reported
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Insider Activity5.0Q3 FY26: net selling (-$9.1M, normalized)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 45.2 balanced, 50d below
News Sentiment6.0majority buy (56%)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +12.0%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 45
Klarman value - target upside +12.0%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +12.0%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
45.2 RSI 45.2 balanced, 50d below
MACD
-3.40 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$347 stock 3.4% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$322 stock 3.8% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-70% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$375
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$335
Pre-earnings position
Support
$274
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$274-$375 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

4 quarters shown.

MISS
Q4 FY25
$4.63 vs $4.85 est · Next-day price move: -1.0%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$5.94 vs $5.47 est · Next-day price move: -1.7%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$7.70 vs $5.59 est · Next-day price move: +1.2%
MISS
Q3 FY26
$5.75 vs $5.93 est · Next-day price move: +1.2%

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $5.72 (no guidance)

"We expect fourth quarter NII ex-markets to be approximately $25.5 billion and fourth quarter total NII to be about $28 billion."

- Jeremy Barnum, CFO - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - October 13, 2026
Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q3 earnings call.

Insider trading signal

Form 4 Q3 FY26: 6 transactions, net -$9.14M1.

Executive Action Amount Date
Leopold Robin Head of Human Resources Sale -$882.0K 2026-09-10
Leopold Robin Head of Human Resources Sale -$903.5K 2026-08-11
Friedman Stacey General Counsel Sale -$1.81M 2026-06-22
Friedman Stacey General Counsel Sale -$1.64M 2026-05-20
Erdoes Mary E. CEO Asset & Wealth Management Sale -$1.98M 2026-05-15
Lake Marianne CEO CCB Sale -$1.92M 2026-05-15
Net 6 transactions (6 sales, 0 purchases) -$9.14M Q3 FY26

6 transactions · 6 sales / 0 purchases = net negative flow. Not large in absolute terms against a $889.8B market cap.

CapEx shock

Q3 CapEx not reported1. Q3 op margin 26.4%1 - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $5.90
Threshold: EPS > $5.901.
Target: Break above median target $3751; high target $4251 upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $5.90
Threshold: EPS approx $5.901.
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $3351 and median $3751.
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $5.72
Threshold: EPS < $5.721.
Current price $335 — above SMA200 $3221.

Market Outlook

What do analysts say? 9 price targets · 27 ratings

Wall Street Consensus
$375
12-month median target price (+12.0% gap to the analyst consensus median)
15
BUY
12
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$274
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$347 - 50-day MA (below, -3.4%)
$322 - 200-day MA (above, +3.8%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - JPM Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $5.901. Three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jan 14, 2027EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jan 15, 2027PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Mar 1, 2027 – Mar 31, 2027FILING10-K due within 60–90 days of fiscal year end (by Mar 1, 2027 – Mar 31, 2027); the exact deadline depends on filer status
~Apr 16, 2027EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the JPM Q4 FY26 earnings preview cover?

This JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Q4 FY26 earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in JPM Q4 FY26 earnings?

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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