The Coca-Cola Company
KO - NYSE - $78.42 ▼ -%0.03
-
Earnings Tue 28 Jul

Coca-Cola opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

8 analysts' median target is $85[FMP target], stock is $78, +8.4% upside potential. After Q1 +5.9% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +0.7%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
HOLD Council 3/6 - Moonshot 53

B = MoonshotScore 53[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $13.2B[FMP est], EPS $0.93[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$0.93 EPS Estimate Last year $0.58 - +7% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q1 EPS +5.9% beat[FMP] but the stock +0.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. John Murphy promised $266.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[John Murphy capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

8% Investor Focus

Full Year Eps Growth

full_year_eps_growth

Coca-Cola now expects comparable earnings per share growth of 8% to 9% versus $3 in 2025, which is an increase from our prior estimate of 7% to 8% due to the lower effective tax rate.

"All in, we now expect comparable earnings per share growth of 8% to 9% versus $3 in 2025, which is an increase from our prior estimate of 7% to 8% due to the lower effective tax rate."

- John Murphy, President and Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
1- Investor Focus

Currency Tailwind Revenue

currency_tailwind_revenue

Based on current rates and our hedge positions, we now anticipate an approximate 1- to 2-point currency tailwind to comparable net revenues, up from an approximate 1 point currency tailwind in our previous estimate.

"Based on current rates and our hedge positions, we now anticipate an approximate 1- to 2-point currency tailwind to comparable net revenues, up from an approximate 1 point currency tailwind in our previous estimate."

- John Murphy, President and Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
6% Expectation / Guide

Eps Growth Guidance

eps_growth_guidance

Coca-Cola now expects growth in comparable currency-neutral earnings per share, excluding acquisitions and divestitures of 6% to 7% for 2026.

"We now expect growth in comparable currency-neutral earnings per share, excluding acquisitions and divestitures of 6% to 7%."

- John Murphy, President and Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
4% Expectation / Guide

Organic Revenue Growth Guidance

organic_revenue_growth_guidance

Coca-Cola maintains its organic revenue growth guidance for 2026 at 4% to 5%.

"We continue to expect organic revenue growth of 4% to 5%."

- John Murphy, President and Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
6 Investor Focus

Q4 Calendar Shift

q4_calendar_shift

As a reminder, due to a calendar shift, the fourth quarter will have 6 fewer days compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.

"As a reminder, due to a calendar shift, the fourth quarter will have 6 fewer days compared to the fourth quarter of 2025."

- John Murphy, President and Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 53 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-0.5%, contraction)
Gross Margin6.0Q1: high margin (63.0%)
Operating Leverage3.0op margin very strong (35.0%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($1.8B, 6.6x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 56.8 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment8.0strong buy consensus (79%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +8.4%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 57
Klarman value - target upside +8.4%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +8.4%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
56.8 RSI 56.8 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+1.90 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$77 stock 1.9% above - short-term support
200d MA
$72 stock 8.7% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-22% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$85
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$78
Pre-earnings position
Support
$61
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$61-$85 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

The beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$0.87 vs $0.83 est - -0.7%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$0.82 vs $0.78 est - -0.6%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$0.58 vs $0.56 est - +2.3%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$0.86 vs $0.81 est - +0.7%

Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $0.86 vs $0.81 est[FMP], +5.9% beat. D+1 movement: +0.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $0.90 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $0.86 vs $0.81 beat[FMP], stock +0.7% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $266.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 35.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $0.93 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $0.93[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $85[FMP target]; high target $88[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $0.93 + CapEx < $266.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $0.93[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $266.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $78[FMP] and median $85[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $0.90 or CapEx >= $266.0M
Threshold: EPS < $0.90[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $78 below SMA200 $72[FMP], if rejection continues, $61[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 8 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$85
12-month median target price (+8.4% upside potential)
19
BUY
5
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$61
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$77 - 50-day MA (above, +1.9%)
$72 - 200-day MA (above, +8.7%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - KO Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $0.93[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $266.0M"[John Murphy]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 28, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 29, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 11, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 28, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the KO earnings preview cover?

This KO (KO) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in KO earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.