7 analysts' median target is $598[FMP target], stock is $995, -39.9% upside potential. After Q2 +18.4% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +7.0%.
C+ = MoonshotScore 64[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $810.0M[FMP est], EPS $2.24[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q2 EPS +18.4% beat[FMP] but the stock +7.0% D+1[FMP D+1]. Wajid Ali promised $76.2M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Wajid Ali capex transcript].
Watchlist
Components Revenue Growth
components_revenue_growth
Components revenue for the quarter reached $444 million, representing a 17% sequential increase and 68% year-over-year growth. This performance was fueled by broad-based demand across laser chips, laser assemblies, and inline subsystems going primarily into inter-data center DCI and long-haul applications.
"Components revenue for the quarter reached $444 million, representing a 17% sequential increase and 68% year-over-year growth. This performance was fueled by broad-based demand across laser chips, laser assemblies, and inline subsystems going primarily into inter-data center DCI and long-haul applications."
- Michael Hurlston, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Record Revenue
record_revenue
Lumentum delivered a standout second quarter with over 65% year-over-year revenue growth and non-GAAP operating margin increasing by greater than 1,700 basis points.
"Lumentum delivered a standout second quarter with over 65% year-over-year revenue growth and non-GAAP operating margin increasing by greater than 1,700 basis points."
- Michael Hurlston, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Q3 Revenue Guidance
q3_revenue_guidance
Lumentum's March revenue guidance, with an $805 million midpoint, represents an impressive 85% plus year-over-year increase.
"Our March revenue guidance, with an $805 million midpoint, represents an impressive 85% plus year-over-year increase."
- Michael Hurlston, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Cpo New Order
cpo_new_order
We have secured an additional multi-$100 million purchase order for ultra-high-power lasers that support optical scale-out applications. We expect shipments for this incremental order in 2027.
"Turning to CPO, we have secured an additional multi-$100 million purchase order for ultra-high-power lasers that support optical scale-out applications. We expect shipments for this incremental order in 2027."
- Michael Hurlston, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Ocs Backlog
ocs_backlog
Customer demand for OCS is intensifying. Our order backlog now has surged well past $400 million, the majority of which is slated for shipment in the second half of this calendar year.
"Customer demand for OCS is intensifying. Our order backlog now has surged well past $400 million, the majority of which is slated for shipment in the second half of this calendar year."
- Michael Hurlston, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Ocs Outperformance
ocs_outperformance
Lumentum's OCS business is exceeding internal expectations and cleared its first $10 million quarter three months ahead of schedule.
"Our OCS business is exceeding internal expectations. While we originally targeted our first $10 million quarter for fiscal Q3, we cleared that bar three months ahead of schedule."
- Michael Hurlston, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ken Griffin, Buffett), 2 bearish (Klarman, Munger), 2 neutral (Ray Dalio, Jim Simons).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, but price is high.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q2 (February 3, 2026): EPS $1.67 vs $1.41 est[FMP], +18.4% beat. D+1 movement: +7.0%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q2: EPS $1.67 vs $1.41 beat[FMP], stock +7.0% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Q2 CapEx $76.2M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 9.7%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.24[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $76.2M"[Wajid Ali]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This LITE (LITE) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.