Eli Lilly and Company
LLY - NYSE - $963.33 ▲ +%3.07
-
Earnings Thu 6 Aug

Eli opens the
books on Thursday evening.

14 analysts' median target is $1280[FMP target], stock is $963, +32.9% upside potential. After Q1 +22.7% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +3.1%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
BUY Council 5/6 - Moonshot 70

B = MoonshotScore 70[9-pillar formula] + Council 5/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q1 consensus: revenue $20.2B[FMP est], EPS $8.65[FMP est]. 6 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$8.65 EPS Estimate Last year $8.55 - +37% YoY YoY
6 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 6 quarters

Q1 EPS +22.7% beat[FMP] but the stock +3.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Lucas Montarce promised $2.3B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Lucas Montarce capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

$2 Expectation / Guide

Revenue Guidance Increase

revenue_guidance_increase

We have increased the top and the bottom end of the revenue range by $2 billion and now expect full year revenue to be between $82 million and $85 billion.

"We have increased the top and the bottom end of the revenue range by $2 billion and now expect full year revenue to be between $82 million and $85 billion."

- Lucas Montarce, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
$12.8 Investor Focus

Mounjaro And Seman Revenue

mounjaro_and_seman_revenue

Mounjaro and Suven global revenue was $12.8 billion combined, contributing $6.7 billion of growth compared to Q1 2025.

"Finally, in cardiometabolic, Mounjaro and Suven global revenue was $12.8 billion combined, contributing $6.7 billion of growth compared to Q1 2025."

- Lucas Montarce, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
160% Investor Focus

Immunology Oncology Neuroscience Growth

immunology_oncology_neuroscience_growth

Our immunology, oncology and neuroscience medicines collectively grew by 160% compared to the same quarter last year.

"Within key products, our immunology, oncology and neuroscience medicines collectively grew by 160% compared to the same quarter last year as we continue to invest to drive growth across all of our therapeutic areas."

- David Ricks, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
56% Investor Focus

Key Products Growth

key_products_growth

Our key products currently defined as Elis in Luria, J. Perka, Kasamla, Monjaro, Umba and [indiscernible] grew 56% revenue growth.

"Our key products currently defined as Elis in Luria, J. Perka, Kasamla, Monjaro, Umba and [indiscernible] grew 56% revenue growth."

- Lucas Montarce, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
2026 Investor Focus

Foundayo Launch

foundayo_launch

While the Foundayo launch has just begun, we're encouraged by momentum against our 2026 launch priorities.

"While the Foundayo launch has just begun, we're encouraged by momentum against our 2026 launch priorities."

- David Ricks, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 70 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong. R&D Intensity weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+27.3%)
Gross Margin8.0Q1: very high margin (81.9%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage4.0op margin very strong (44.7%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway9.0FCF strong ($3.0B FCF, covers CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0high R&D intensity (19.5%, aggressive)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 57.9 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment8.0strong buy consensus (77%)
Council Score 5 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 5 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +32.9%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 58
Klarman value - target upside +32.9%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +32.9%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
57.9 RSI 57.9 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+1.70 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$948 stock 1.7% above - short-term support
200d MA
$911 stock 5.7% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+18% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$1280
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$963
Pre-earnings position
Support
$775
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$775-$1280 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Eli's last 8 quarters: 6 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$6.31 vs $5.60 est - -2.4%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$7.02 vs $5.69 est - +2.2%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$7.54 vs $6.91 est - -7.8%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$8.55 vs $6.97 est - +3.1%

Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $8.55 vs $6.97 est[FMP], +22.7% beat. D+1 movement: +3.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $8.39 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $8.55 vs $6.97 beat[FMP], stock +3.1% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $2.3B[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 44.7%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $8.65 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $8.65[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $1280[FMP target]; high target $1350[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $8.65 + CapEx < $2.3B
Threshold: EPS approx $8.65[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $2.3B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $963[FMP] and median $1280[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $8.39 or CapEx >= $2.3B
Threshold: EPS < $8.39[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $963 below SMA200 $911[FMP], if rejection continues, $775[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 14 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$1280
12-month median target price (+32.9% upside potential)
24
BUY
6
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$775
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$948 - 50-day MA (above, +1.7%)
$911 - 200-day MA (above, +5.7%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - LLY Q1 FY27
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $8.65[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $2.3B"[Lucas Montarce]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days LLY dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Aug 6, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Aug 7, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 20, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Nov 6, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the LLY earnings preview cover?

This LLY (LLY) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in LLY earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.