1 analysts' median target is $210[FMP target], stock is $131, +60.1% upside potential. After Q4 +4.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +3.8%.
A = MoonshotScore 50[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $2.4B[FMP est], EPS $1.69[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q4 EPS +4.6% beat[FMP] but the stock +3.8% D+1[FMP D+1]. Meghan Frank promised $183.2M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Meghan Frank capex transcript].
Watchlist
Full Price Sales Growth
full_price_sales_growth
Lululemon aims to return to full-price sales growth in North America, with improvements seen in Q1.
"Looking at 2026, a primary goal in the North America is returning the business to healthier levels of full-price sales after seeing a higher markdown penetration in 2025. We are already seeing better full-price sell-through in Q1 relative to Q4, and we are targeting further improvement as we move through the year, driven by increased product newness, innovation and operating discipline."
- Andre Maestrini, interim Co-CEO, President and Chief Commercial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 17, 2026
Fy26 Revenue Guidance
fy26_revenue_guidance
Lululemon expects revenue for fiscal year 2026 to be in the range of $11.35 billion to $11.5 billion, representing growth of 2% to 4% relative to 2025.
"We expect revenue to be in the range of $11.35 billion to $11.5 billion, representing growth of 2% to 4% relative to 2025."
- Meghan Frank, interim Co-CEO and CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 17, 2026
North America Growth Strategies
north_america_growth_strategies
Lululemon is implementing strategies to unlock growth in North America, focusing on full-price business, enhancing guest experience, and increasing new style penetration.
"So let me speak to 3 of the strategies we are implementing to unlock growth in the region. First, as Meghan mentioned, we are focused on the growth of our full-price business. Second, we're enhancing the guest experience, both in-store and online. And third, we are increasing new style penetration across our assortment."
- Andre Maestrini, interim Co-CEO, President and Chief Commercial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 17, 2026
Capex Outlook Fy26
capex_outlook_fy26
Lululemon expects capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 to be approximately $725 million to $745 million.
"Finally, for the full year, we expect capital expenditures to be approximately $725 million to $745 million."
- Meghan Frank, interim Co-CEO and CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 17, 2026
China Mainland Growth
china_mainland_growth
Lululemon is seeing strong growth in China Mainland, with particular success in outerwear and loungewear categories.
"In China Mainland, our guests responding well to our product assortment in Q4 with outerwear and lounge being standout categories."
- Andre Maestrini, interim Co-CEO, President and Chief Commercial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 17, 2026
Tariff Impact Mitigation
tariff_impact_mitigation
Lululemon is implementing initiatives to mitigate the gross impact of tariffs in 2026, expecting to offset almost all of it.
"We expect markdowns for the full year to improve modestly and tariffs to have a gross impact of 90 basis points, of which we expect to be able to offset almost all of it."
- Meghan Frank, interim Co-CEO and CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - March 17, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q4 (March 17, 2026): EPS $5.01 vs $4.79 est[FMP], +4.6% beat. D+1 movement: +3.8%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q4: EPS $5.01 vs $4.79 beat[FMP], stock +3.8% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.
Q4 CapEx $183.2M[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 22.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.69[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $183.2M"[Meghan Frank]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This LULU (LULU) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.