9 analysts' median target is $188[FMP target], stock is $163, +14.8% upside potential. After Q1 +0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +6.7%.
C = MoonshotScore 44[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $7.6B[FMP est], EPS $0.70[FMP est]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +0% beat[FMP] but the stock +6.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. Joe Berchtold promised $309.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Joe Berchtold capex transcript].
Watchlist
Q3 Aoi Growth
q3_aoi_growth
Live Nation expects stronger AOI growth in Q3 2026 due to strong growth in stadiums and amphitheaters.
"So really, what's going on with timing is because we have very strong growth globally in stadiums and strong growth in amphitheaters in the U.S. Those tend to skew more towards Q3 just from a calendar standpoint."
- Joe Berchtold, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Venue Securitization
venue_securitization
Live Nation has developed an innovative vehicle to fund the venue side, allowing for more leverage using venue holdings as collateral.
"This is a great vehicle that the team developed to think about how it is we fund the venue side of the business going forward. I've talked before about how in my mind, there's a little bit of a propco/opco, 2 businesses that we have; here, and there's an opportunity with the propco to effectively have a synthetic component of the balance sheet."
- Joe Berchtold, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Ticketmaster Product Focus
ticketmaster_product_focus
Live Nation is focused on making the on sale process smoother, more transparent, and driving consumer confidence at Ticketmaster.
"So I would say our continual top priority is to make that on sale smooth, more transparent and drive as much consumer confidence as we can in the process."
- Michael Rapino, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Venue Partnerships
venue_partnerships
Live Nation believes it can replicate the model of partnering with stadiums globally, reducing capital intensity while securing revenue streams.
"We love that deal. And we absolutely think on a global basis, it's something we can replicate. Lots of these stadiums around the world. These are not NFL activity kind of venues, so they don't have as much activity going on. So we're a great partner to help make sure we can put some shows in there, bring some sponsorship expertise and some capital if we have to."
- Michael Rapino, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Global Artist Supply
global_artist_supply
Live Nation notes there are more bands on the road on a global basis, which will fill all venue levels.
"I mean if we step back as we do in our Investor Day on supply, there are more bands on the road on a global basis. So the pie is growing. Our job is just to keep making sure we maintain our market share and grow with that expanding pie of supply."
- Michael Rapino, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Amphitheater Demand
amphitheater_demand
Live Nation expects a strong year in amphitheaters, with ticket sales up over double digits and strong demand.
"And as you see from the numbers in our releases, we're tracking ahead of last year on show count, on ticket sales up over double digits. So we see a strong year in amphitheaters."
- Michael Rapino, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin), 0 bearish (none), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (May 5, 2026): EPS $-1.85 vs $-0.35 est[FMP], +0% beat. D+1 movement: +6.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $-1.85 vs $-0.35 beat[FMP], stock +6.7% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $309.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 3.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $0.70[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $309.0M"[Joe Berchtold]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This LYV (LYV) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.