McKesson Corporation
MCK - NYSE - $807.33 ▲ +%2.95
-
Earnings
Wed 5 Aug
McKesson opens the
books on Wednesday evening.
2 analysts' median target is $970[FMP target], stock is $807, +20.1% upside potential. After Q3 +1.1% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -2.5%.
↓
summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B-
BUY
Council 2/6
-
Moonshot 41
B- = MoonshotScore 41[multi-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Oncology and Multispecialty guidance reduction from 37% -> 29-33%[Britt Vitalone Q-prev transcript] and the current Form 4 signal (0 transactions)[FMP Form 4] prevented an A- grade.
Q1 consensus: revenue $104.0B[FMP est], EPS $9.63[FMP est]. Britt Vitalone lowered Oncology and Multispecialty guidance to 29-33% (previous 37%) in the Q3 earnings call[Britt Vitalone Q-prev transcript]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
$9.63
EPS Estimate
Last year $8.26 - +17% YoY YoY
33%
Oncology and Multispecialty Guidance
Previous quarter was 37%
5
Beat Streak
Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 5 quarters
Q3 EPS +1.1% beat[FMP] but the stock -2.5% D+1[FMP D+1]. Britt Vitalone promised $111.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q3 earnings call[Britt Vitalone capex transcript].
Oncology Multispecialty Growth
oncology_multispecialty_growth
The Oncology and Multispecialty segment delivered strong performance with revenues increasing 37% and operating profit increasing 57%, driven by provider growth, expanded specialty distribution, and acquisitions.
"Revenues increased 37% to $13 billion driven by strong provider growth, expanded specialty distribution, and contributions from acquisitions completed this fiscal year. Operating profit increased 57% to $366 million led by growth in provider solutions and specialty distribution, including contributions from acquisitions."
- Britt Vitalone, Chief Financial Officer - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
$38.80
Expectation / Guide
Fy26 Eps Guidance Raise
fy26_eps_guidance_raise
McKesson raised its full-year fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $38.80 to $39.20, reflecting 17% to 19% year-over-year growth.
"The consistency of this performance gives us the confidence to raise full-year EPS guidance to a range of $38.80 to $39.20, which reflects 17 to 19% year-over-year growth."
- Brian Tyler, Chief Executive Officer - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
Ai Automation Efficiency
ai_automation_efficiency
McKesson is leveraging AI and automation across its operations, including an AI chat tool for DSCSA inquiries that prevented 75% of escalations and improved first contact resolution, demonstrating significant productivity gains.
"In the US, we launched an AI chat tool in November to specifically handle customer inquiries related to the Drug Supply Chain Security Act. By enabling natural language answers to complex DSCSA data questions, we prevented 75% of inquiries from being escalated and materially improved first contact resolution."
- Brian Tyler, Chief Executive Officer - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
$88.3 billion
Investor Focus
North American Pharma Performance
north_american_pharma_performance
The North American Pharmaceutical segment saw revenues increase 9% to $88.3 billion, driven by higher prescription volumes, including GLP-1 distribution revenues of $14 billion, up 26% year-over-year.
"Revenues were $88.3 billion, an increase of 9% driven by higher prescription volume, including higher volumes across retail national account customers and continued specialty product distribution strength. GLP-1 distribution revenues were $14 billion in the quarter, up $3 billion or 26% when compared to the prior year."
- Britt Vitalone, Chief Financial Officer - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
Medical Surgical Separation
medical_surgical_separation
McKesson is progressing with the separation of its medical-surgical business, having reached a major milestone with transition service agreements in place, and is tracking towards an IPO by the second half of calendar 2027.
"On January 1, we reached a major milestone in the separation journey with transition service agreements now in place across the enterprise. We continue to track towards the timeline of an IPO by the second half of calendar 2027, subject, of course, to market conditions and customary regulatory approvals."
- Brian Tyler, Chief Executive Officer - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?
MoonshotScore
41 / 100
multi-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0
Q4 vs Q1: growth negative (-1.6%, contraction)
Gross Margin0.0
Q4: low margin (4.2%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage0.0
op margin weak (2.3%, under pressure)
Cash Runway10.0
FCF very strong ($3.3B, 29.8x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0
low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0
RSI 62.9 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment9.0
strong buy consensus (88%)
Council Score
2 / 6 Bullish
6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin), 0 bearish (none), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +20.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 63
Klarman value - target upside +20.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 1/5
Munger valuation - target upside +20.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued
Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->
Interest CoverageAdequate
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning
What levels is the stock being tested at?
RSI(14)
62.9
RSI 62.9 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+4.80
price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$771
stock 4.8% above - short-term support
200d MA
$828
stock 2.5% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-29%
decrease - low participation
Resistance
$970
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$807
Pre-earnings position
Support
$704
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$704-$970 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger
Past Performance
McKesson's last 8 quarters: 5 consecutive beats.
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$8.26 vs $8.14 est - -5.8%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$9.86 vs $9.03 est - +1.7%
BEAT
Q3 FY26
$9.34 vs $9.17 est - +16.5%
BEAT
Q4 FY26
$11.69 vs $11.56 est - -2.5%
Q3 (February 4, 2026): EPS $11.69 vs $11.56 est[FMP], +1.1% beat. D+1 movement: -2.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Three scenarios: what could happen?
Oncology and Multispecialty below 35%
Q3: EPS $11.69 vs $11.56 beat[FMP], stock -2.5% D+1[FMP]. Britt Vitalone Q3 transcript: "In the oncology and multispecialty segment, we anticipate revenue growth of 29 to 33% and operating profit growth of 51% to 55%."[Britt Vitalone].
"In the oncology and multispecialty segment, we anticipate revenue growth of 29 to 33% and operating profit growth of 51% to 55%."
- Britt Vitalone, CFO - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q3 earnings call.
Insider trading signal
Form 4 data is marked in the table - this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
Our FMP plan does not provide Form 4 insider feed for this stock. This page does not generate assumptions - SEC EDGAR Form 4 can be monitored directly.
CapEx shock
Q3 CapEx $111.0M[FMP cashflow]. Britt Vitalone Q3 transcript: "Third quarter free cash flow was $1.1 billion, which included $175 million in capital expenditures."[Britt Vitalone transcript]. Q3 op margin 2.3%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
"Third quarter free cash flow was $1.1 billion, which included $175 million in capital expenditures."
- Britt Vitalone, CFO - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
Framework - Position discipline
After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $9.63 + Oncology and Multispecialty >= 33%
Threshold: EPS > $9.63[FMP est] and Oncology and Multispecialty >= 33%[Britt Vitalone transcript].
Target: Break above median target $970[FMP target]; high target $1085[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $9.63 + Oncology and Multispecialty 29-33% + CapEx promise kept
Threshold: EPS approx $9.63[FMP est], Oncology and Multispecialty 29-33%, Q1 CapEx < $111.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $807[FMP] and median $970[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $9.34 or Oncology and Multispecialty < 35% or CapEx >= $111.0M
Threshold: EPS < $9.34[FMP estx0.97] or Oncology and Multispecialty < 35%[Britt Vitalone guidance lower minus 2].
Target: Current $807 below SMA200 $828[FMP], if rejection continues, $704[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.
Market Outlook
What do 2 analysts say?
Wall Street Consensus
$970
12-month median target price (+20.1% upside potential)
Risk Management
$704
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$771 - 50-day MA (above, +4.8%)
$828 - 200-day MA (below, -2.5%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - MCK Q1 FY27
B-
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $9.63[FMP], Oncology and Multispecialty guidance 29-33%[Britt Vitalone], CapEx threshold "below $111.0M"[Britt Vitalone]. Three anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison
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3 subscriptions. 1 platform.
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Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look
Aug 5, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Aug 6, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 19, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Nov 5, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the MCK earnings preview cover?
This McKesson Corporation (MCK) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
What should investors watch for in MCK earnings?
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Where do the numbers on this page come from?
Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
Is this a buy or sell recommendation?
No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.