B+ = MoonshotScore 64[multi-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $9.6B[FMP est], EPS $1.39[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
17 analysts' median target is $90[FMP target], stock is $83, +8.4% upside potential. After Q3 +0.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +5.1%.
B+ = MoonshotScore 64[multi-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $9.6B[FMP est], EPS $1.39[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q3 EPS +0.6% beat[FMP] but the stock +5.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Thierry Pieton promised $488.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q3 earnings call[Thierry Pieton capex transcript].
Watchlist
Q3 Revenue Growth Generational Drivers
Q3_Revenue_Growth_Generational_Drivers
Medtronic achieved its highest revenue growth in 10 quarters with 6% organic growth, driven by strong end markets and four generational growth drivers, each with over $1 billion revenue potential.
"And Q3 marks the highest revenue growth Medtronic has achieved in 10 quarters with 6% organic revenue growth. Our end markets are strong, and we're leaning into multiple new opportunities for revenue growth with a continuous pipeline of new and innovative technologies, either developed internally or through venture and M&A in areas core to Medtronic. This includes 4 generational growth drivers: our PFA platform for AFib, Symplicity Spyral for hypertension, Altaviva for urge urinary incontinence and our Hugo surgical robot. Each one of these individual products could ultimately deliver well over $1 billion of revenue and each serves a large underpenetrated market where Medtronic is uniquely positioned to lead and to take share."
- Geoffrey Martha, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
PFA Platform Growth Outlook
PFA_Platform_Growth_Outlook
The Cardiac Ablation Solutions business, led by PFA, grew 80% year-over-year and is on track to double its revenue to $2 billion by the first half of fiscal year '27, with new product Sphere-360 receiving CE Mark and starting U.S. trials.
"With 80% growth year-over-year, our Cardiac Ablation Solutions business was once again the fastest growing in the segment, doubling the growth rate of our closest competitor. This quarter, PFA grew nearly 200% worldwide. We gained 4 points of share in this rapidly growing $13-plus billion market with our Affera platform in our Sphere-9 catheter. We have a long runway ahead to expand our footprint and deepen our penetration, and we remain on track to double our revenue in this business, delivering $2 billion trailing in total CAS revenue by first half of fiscal year '27. Last month, we received CE Mark and initiated the U.S. pivotal trial for Sphere-360, which is our next-gen single-shot all-in-one PFA and mapping catheter."
- Geoffrey Martha, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
FY26 Guidance Reiteration
FY26_Guidance_Reiteration
Medtronic is reiterating its fiscal '26 organic revenue growth guidance of approximately 5.5% and maintaining its adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $5.62 to $5.66, despite tax pressure.
"On the top line, we're reiterating fiscal '26 organic revenue growth guidance of approximately 5.5%. As we expect CRM and ACM to normalize and the tax pressure to carry into Q4, we are maintaining our fiscal '26 EPS guidance in the range of $5.62 to $5.66."
- Thierry Pieton, Chief Financial Officer - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
Stealth AXiS AI Spine
Stealth_AXiS_AI_Spine
Medtronic secured FDA clearance for its Stealth AXiS Surgical System, a new transformative platform that unifies AI-powered planning, robotics, and navigation for spinal procedures, expected to contribute to growth as soon as Q4.
"Just last week, we secured FDA clearance for our Stealth AXiS Surgical System for spinal procedures. Stealth AXiS is a new transformative platform that unifies AI-powered planning, robotics and navigation into one seamless system, elevated by the entire AiBLE ecosystem. With FDA clearance achieved, we expect to see Stealth AXiS contribute Neurosurgery and CST overall as soon as the fourth quarter."
- Geoffrey Martha, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
Hugo Robot US Launch
Hugo_Robot_US_Launch
The Hugo surgical robot received FDA clearance for urologic procedures, enabling its U.S. launch with initial installations and cases already completed, while the AI-powered Touch Surgery digital ecosystem surpassed 1,000 global installations.
"This quarter, our Hugo robot received FDA clearance for urologic surgical procedures, enabling us to begin our purposeful U.S. launch. And today, I'm excited to share that we've already completed our first installations and initial cases. This quarter, Touch Surgery installations increased over 20% sequentially and have now surpassed 1,000 systems globally."
- Geoffrey Martha, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
FY27 EPS Diabetes Separation
FY27_EPS_Diabetes_Separation
The company is committed to high single-digit EPS growth in fiscal year '27 and expects the MiniMed Diabetes business separation, via a two-step IPO and split, to be complete by the end of calendar year '26 and to be accretive.
"All told, we are committed to our guidance, and we maintain our expectation for high single-digit EPS growth in fiscal year '27. The planned separation of MiniMed is perfectly on track. Our preferred path continues to be a two-step, IPO and split. We continue to expect the separation to be complete by the end of calendar year '26. We fully expect the deal to be accretive."
- Thierry Pieton, Chief Financial Officer - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
multi-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin), 0 bearish (none), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q3 (February 17, 2026): EPS $1.55 vs $1.54 est[FMP], +0.6% beat. D+1 movement: +5.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q3: EPS $1.55 vs $1.54 beat[FMP], stock +5.1% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q3 earnings call.
Q3 CapEx $488.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q3 op margin 15.9%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $1.39[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $488.0M"[Thierry Pieton]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This Medtronic plc (MDT) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.