10 analysts' median target is $112[FMP target], stock is $80, +39.4% upside potential. After Q2 +1.5% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +2.2%.
B = MoonshotScore 51[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $9.6B[FMP est], EPS $1.58[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q2 EPS +1.5% beat[FMP] but the stock +2.2% D+1[FMP D+1]. Thierry Pieton promised $444.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Thierry Pieton capex transcript].
Watchlist
Fy26 Revenue Guidance
fy26_revenue_guidance
Medtronic is raising its fiscal 2026 revenue growth expectation to approximately 5.5%, based on its outperformance in the first half of the year and confidence in revenue growth acceleration.
"Given our outperformance in the first half of the year, as well as the confidence we have in our revenue growth acceleration, we're raising our full-year revenue guidance today. Year to date, we've delivered 5.2% organic growth, and we expect this to further accelerate in the back half of the year. As a result, now expect fiscal 2026 revenue growth of approximately 5.5%."
- Thierry Pieton, Chief Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - November 18, 2025
Pfa Growth
pfa_growth
Medtronic's PFA franchise is generating significant momentum, growing 71% and achieving the highest growth rate in the space.
"In cardiac ablation, our PFA franchise is generating just a ton of momentum. We grew 71%, which is a strong acceleration from last quarter's nearly 50% CAS growth. This is the highest growth rate of any company in this large and fast-growing space."
- Geoffrey Martha, chairman and chief executive officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - November 18, 2025
Cardiovascular Growth
cardiovascular_growth
Medtronic's cardiovascular portfolio grew 9%, marking its strongest growth in over a decade, driven by momentum in CAS.
"So I'll start with our cardiovascular portfolio, where we grew 9%. This was our strongest growth over a decade, excluding the easy comparisons we had after the pandemic. The growth acceleration was driven by our building momentum in CAS, which Geoff walked you through."
- Thierry Pieton, Chief Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - November 18, 2025
Afera Durability
afera_durability
Physicians appreciate the shorter procedure times and outstanding durability of Afera systems, driving demand for additional systems.
"Physicians tell us that they appreciate not only the shorter procedure times that they're seeing with Afera, but increasingly, they're calling out its outstanding durability as well. And demand continues to be extremely high as we hear repeatedly from customers that they want to purchase additional affair systems to expand into even more of their labs."
- Geoffrey Martha, chairman and chief executive officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - November 18, 2025
Simplicity Medicare Ncd
simplicity_medicare_ncd
The final Medicare NCD for the Simplicity procedure for hypertension has been received, presenting a significant opportunity by enabling broad access and removing patient pathway barriers.
"And we're excited to have received the final Medicare NCD for simplicity three weeks ago. So now in addition to a broad label from the FDA, we have an excellent coverage outcome from CMS. The final NCD enables broad access and removes certain patient pathway barriers that were in the original proposal, including reducing in-person visits, removing a kidney function exclusion, and cutting in half the time requirement for adherence to meds."
- Geoffrey Martha, chairman and chief executive officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - November 18, 2025
Altaviva Launch
altaviva_launch
Positive signs are emerging in the first weeks of the Altaviva US launch, with high demand for physician training programs and a surge in consumer search activity.
"We're seeing very positive signs in the first several weeks of The US launch. Physician training programs are oversubscribed. And we're expanding training capacity to meet this demand. Physicians are stacking cases and early media coverage has driven a surge in consumer search activity."
- Geoffrey Martha, chairman and chief executive officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - November 18, 2025
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and R&D Intensity strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q2 (November 18, 2025): EPS $1.36 vs $1.34 est[FMP], +1.5% beat. D+1 movement: +2.2%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q2: EPS $1.36 vs $1.34 beat[FMP], stock +2.2% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Q2 CapEx $444.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 19.7%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.58[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $444.0M"[Thierry Pieton]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This MDT (MDT) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.