Stock Expert AI
Medtronic plc
MDT - NYSE - $83.06 ▼ -%0.16
-
Earnings Tue 18 Aug

Medtronic opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

17 analysts' median target is $90[FMP target], stock is $83, +8.4% upside potential. After Q3 +0.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +5.1%.

summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
HOLD Council 2/6 - Moonshot 64

B+ = MoonshotScore 64[multi-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q1 consensus: revenue $9.6B[FMP est], EPS $1.39[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

$1.39 EPS Estimate Last year $1.26 - +10% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q3 EPS +0.6% beat[FMP] but the stock +5.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Thierry Pieton promised $488.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q3 earnings call[Thierry Pieton capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

Q3 Investor Focus

Q3 Revenue Growth Generational Drivers

Q3_Revenue_Growth_Generational_Drivers

Medtronic achieved its highest revenue growth in 10 quarters with 6% organic growth, driven by strong end markets and four generational growth drivers, each with over $1 billion revenue potential.

"And Q3 marks the highest revenue growth Medtronic has achieved in 10 quarters with 6% organic revenue growth. Our end markets are strong, and we're leaning into multiple new opportunities for revenue growth with a continuous pipeline of new and innovative technologies, either developed internally or through venture and M&A in areas core to Medtronic. This includes 4 generational growth drivers: our PFA platform for AFib, Symplicity Spyral for hypertension, Altaviva for urge urinary incontinence and our Hugo surgical robot. Each one of these individual products could ultimately deliver well over $1 billion of revenue and each serves a large underpenetrated market where Medtronic is uniquely positioned to lead and to take share."

- Geoffrey Martha, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
80% Expectation / Guide

PFA Platform Growth Outlook

PFA_Platform_Growth_Outlook

The Cardiac Ablation Solutions business, led by PFA, grew 80% year-over-year and is on track to double its revenue to $2 billion by the first half of fiscal year '27, with new product Sphere-360 receiving CE Mark and starting U.S. trials.

"With 80% growth year-over-year, our Cardiac Ablation Solutions business was once again the fastest growing in the segment, doubling the growth rate of our closest competitor. This quarter, PFA grew nearly 200% worldwide. We gained 4 points of share in this rapidly growing $13-plus billion market with our Affera platform in our Sphere-9 catheter. We have a long runway ahead to expand our footprint and deepen our penetration, and we remain on track to double our revenue in this business, delivering $2 billion trailing in total CAS revenue by first half of fiscal year '27. Last month, we received CE Mark and initiated the U.S. pivotal trial for Sphere-360, which is our next-gen single-shot all-in-one PFA and mapping catheter."

- Geoffrey Martha, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
'26 Expectation / Guide

FY26 Guidance Reiteration

FY26_Guidance_Reiteration

Medtronic is reiterating its fiscal '26 organic revenue growth guidance of approximately 5.5% and maintaining its adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $5.62 to $5.66, despite tax pressure.

"On the top line, we're reiterating fiscal '26 organic revenue growth guidance of approximately 5.5%. As we expect CRM and ACM to normalize and the tax pressure to carry into Q4, we are maintaining our fiscal '26 EPS guidance in the range of $5.62 to $5.66."

- Thierry Pieton, Chief Financial Officer - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
Q4 Investor Focus

Stealth AXiS AI Spine

Stealth_AXiS_AI_Spine

Medtronic secured FDA clearance for its Stealth AXiS Surgical System, a new transformative platform that unifies AI-powered planning, robotics, and navigation for spinal procedures, expected to contribute to growth as soon as Q4.

"Just last week, we secured FDA clearance for our Stealth AXiS Surgical System for spinal procedures. Stealth AXiS is a new transformative platform that unifies AI-powered planning, robotics and navigation into one seamless system, elevated by the entire AiBLE ecosystem. With FDA clearance achieved, we expect to see Stealth AXiS contribute Neurosurgery and CST overall as soon as the fourth quarter."

- Geoffrey Martha, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
20% Investor Focus

Hugo Robot US Launch

Hugo_Robot_US_Launch

The Hugo surgical robot received FDA clearance for urologic procedures, enabling its U.S. launch with initial installations and cases already completed, while the AI-powered Touch Surgery digital ecosystem surpassed 1,000 global installations.

"This quarter, our Hugo robot received FDA clearance for urologic surgical procedures, enabling us to begin our purposeful U.S. launch. And today, I'm excited to share that we've already completed our first installations and initial cases. This quarter, Touch Surgery installations increased over 20% sequentially and have now surpassed 1,000 systems globally."

- Geoffrey Martha, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
'27 Investor Focus

FY27 EPS Diabetes Separation

FY27_EPS_Diabetes_Separation

The company is committed to high single-digit EPS growth in fiscal year '27 and expects the MiniMed Diabetes business separation, via a two-step IPO and split, to be complete by the end of calendar year '26 and to be accretive.

"All told, we are committed to our guidance, and we maintain our expectation for high single-digit EPS growth in fiscal year '27. The planned separation of MiniMed is perfectly on track. Our preferred path continues to be a two-step, IPO and split. We continue to expect the separation to be complete by the end of calendar year '26. We fully expect the deal to be accretive."

- Thierry Pieton, Chief Financial Officer - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin), 0 bearish (none), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +8.4%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 60
Klarman value - target upside +8.4%
Buffett quality - ROE score 3/5
Munger valuation - target upside +8.4%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
59.7 RSI 59.7 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+5.10 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$79 stock 5.1% above - short-term support
200d MA
$91 stock 9.0% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+11% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$90
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$83
Pre-earnings position
Support
$78
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$78-$90 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Medtronic beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.26 vs $1.23 est - +3.7%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$1.36 vs $1.31 est - -0.5%
BEAT
Q3 FY26
$1.36 vs $1.34 est - +2.2%
BEAT
Q4 FY26
$1.55 vs $1.54 est - +5.1%

Q3 (February 17, 2026): EPS $1.55 vs $1.54 est[FMP], +0.6% beat. D+1 movement: +5.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.35 (no guidance)

Q3: EPS $1.55 vs $1.54 beat[FMP], stock +5.1% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q3 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q3 CapEx $488.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q3 op margin 15.9%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $1.39 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.39[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $90[FMP target]; high target $119[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.39 + CapEx < $488.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.39[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $488.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $83[FMP] and median $90[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.35 or CapEx >= $488.0M
Threshold: EPS < $1.35[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $83 below SMA200 $91[FMP], if rejection continues, $78[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 17 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$90
12-month median target price (+8.4% upside potential)
18
BUY
12
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$78
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$79 - 50-day MA (above, +5.1%)
$91 - 200-day MA (below, -9.0%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - MDT Q1 FY27
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $1.39[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $488.0M"[Thierry Pieton]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).

3 subscriptions. 1 platform.

Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts

Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing

Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Aug 18, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Aug 19, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Oct 2, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Nov 18, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the MDT earnings preview cover?

This Medtronic plc (MDT) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in MDT earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

More earnings, decoded