12 analysts' median target is $696[FMP target], stock is $606, +14.8% upside potential. After Q1 +8.4% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -0.7%.
A- = MoonshotScore 30[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $1.9B[FMP est], EPS $5.14[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +8.4% beat[FMP] but the stock -0.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. Michael Petro promised $186.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Michael Petro capex transcript].
Watchlist
Specialties Business Growth
specialties_business_growth
Martin Marietta's Specialties business achieved record revenues of $143 million, up 63% year-over-year.
"Our Specialties business also achieved new all-time quarterly records with revenues of $143 million, up 63% year-over-year and gross profit of $45 million, an increase of 17%."
- C. Nye - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Full Year Ebitda Guidance
full_year_ebitda_guidance
Martin Marietta reaffirmed its full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.43 billion.
"With April's continued strong product demand, the impact of April 1 price increases and ongoing optimization efforts, we're reaffirming our full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations guidance of $2.43 billion at the midpoint."
- C. Nye - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Record Revenue
record_revenue
Martin Marietta reported record first quarter revenues of $1.4 billion, a 17% increase.
"2026 is off to a strong start with revenues increasing an impressive 17% to $1.4 billion, a new first quarter record."
- C. Nye - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Quikrete Asset Exchange
quikrete_asset_exchange
Martin Marietta's Quikrete Asset Exchange shifted the portfolio away from more cyclical cement and concrete assets, providing $450 million of cash.
"Importantly, this transaction accelerated our aggregate sludge strategy by shifting the portfolio away from more cyclical cement and concrete assets, enhancing the quality and durability of our earnings profile, while providing $450 million of cash to redeploy into aggregate acquisitions accordingly."
- C. Nye - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Organic Aggregate Shipments
organic_aggregate_shipments
Martin Marietta's organic aggregate shipments grew by 7.2%, exceeding guidance.
"Organic aggregate shipments growth of 7.2% meaningfully exceeded our guidance, benefiting from an early start to the construction season in the Midwest and Colorado as well as continued strength in infrastructure and heavy nonresidential demand across our geographic footprint."
- C. Nye - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
New Frontier Materials Acquisition
new_frontier_materials_acquisition
Martin Marietta entered into a definitive agreement to acquire New Frontier Materials, which produces over 8 million tons of aggregates annually.
"And consistent with the company's SOAR 2030 strategic plan, on April 19, we entered into a definitive agreement to acquire New Frontier materials, a complementary bolt-on to our central division that produces over 8 million tons of aggregates annually."
- C. Nye - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. - strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $1.93 vs $1.78 est[FMP], +8.4% beat. D+1 movement: -0.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $1.93 vs $1.78 beat[FMP], stock -0.7% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $186.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 11.9%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $5.14[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $186.0M"[Michael Petro]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This MLM (MLM) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.