7 analysts' median target is $133[FMP target], stock is $112, +18.6% upside potential. After Q1 +0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +2.7%.
C = MoonshotScore 49[9-pillar formula] + Council 1/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $17.4B[FMP est], EPS $2.33[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +0% beat[FMP] but the stock +2.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. Caroline Litchfield promised $1.0B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Caroline Litchfield capex transcript].
Watchlist
Keytruda Growth
keytruda_growth
Sales of the KEYTRUDA family of products increased 8% to $8 billion, with global growth driven by continued strong demand from metastatic indications and robust uptake in earlier-stage cancers.
"In Oncology, sales of the KEYTRUDA family of products which includes KEYTRUDA and KEYTRUDA QLEX, increased 8% to $8 billion, with global growth driven by continued strong demand from metastatic indications and robust uptake in earlier-stage cancers."
- Caroline Litchfield, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Welireg Growth
welireg_growth
WELIREG sales increased 43% to $199 million driven by continued uptake from ongoing launches in international markets and increased use in certain patients with previously treated advanced renal cell carcinoma in the U.S.
"Notably, WELIREG sales increased 43% to $199 million driven by continued uptake from ongoing launches in international markets and increased use in certain patients with previously treated advanced renal cell carcinoma in the U.S."
- Caroline Litchfield, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Capvaxive Growth
capvaxive_growth
In pneumococcal, CAPVAXIVE continues to progress well, with sales of $142 million, an increase of 31%.
"In pneumococcal, CAPVAXIVE continues to progress well, with sales of $142 million, an increase of 31%."
- Caroline Litchfield, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
20 New Products Potential
20_new_products_potential
We're confident that this change will best position us to deliver on a potential commercial opportunity of over $70 billion by the mid-2030s from these 20-plus anticipated new growth drivers alone.
"We're confident that this change will best position us to deliver on a potential commercial opportunity of over $70 billion by the mid-2030s from these 20-plus anticipated new growth drivers alone."
- Robert Davis, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Winrevair Sales
winrevair_sales
Global sales of WINREVAIR were $525 million, a reflection of the continued strong demand for this important therapy.
"Global sales were $525 million, a reflection of the continued strong demand for this important therapy."
- Caroline Litchfield, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Gardasil Sales Decline
gardasil_sales_decline
GARDASIL sales were $1.1 billion, a decrease of 22%, driven by lower demand in China and Japan, consistent with our expectations.
"In Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, GARDASIL sales were $1.1 billion, a decrease of 22%, driven by lower demand in China and Japan, consistent with our expectations."
- Caroline Litchfield, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 1 bullish (Ray Dalio), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $-1.28 vs $-1.47 est[FMP], +0% beat. D+1 movement: +2.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $-1.28 vs $-1.47 beat[FMP], stock +2.7% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $1.0B[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin -11.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $2.33[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $1.0B"[Caroline Litchfield]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This MRK (MRK) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.