Motorola Solutions, Inc.
MSI - NYSE - $438.01 ▲ +%0.10
-
Earnings Thu 7 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-07 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Motorola opens the
books on Thursday evening.

3 analysts' median target is $485[FMP target], stock is $438, +10.6% upside potential. After Q4 +5.5% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +7.7%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
HOLD Council 2/6 - Moonshot 69

B+ = MoonshotScore 69[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $2.7B[FMP est], EPS $3.25[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$3.25 EPS Estimate Last year $4.59 - +2% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q4 EPS +5.5% beat[FMP] but the stock +7.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. Jason Winkler promised $114.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Jason Winkler capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

$12.7 billion Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Revenue Guidance

fy26_revenue_guidance

Motorola Solutions expects revenue of approximately $12.7 billion for the full year 2026.

"For the full year, we expect revenue of approximately $12.7 billion and non-GAAP EPS between $16.70 and $16.85 per share."

- Jason Winkler, Executive Vice President and CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
$99 Investor Focus

Assist Suites Pricing

assist_suites_pricing

Motorola Solutions is offering its public safety AI applications under a role-based pricing model of $99 per user per month.

"We've tailored these offers to assist these key personnel under a role-based pricing model of $99 per user per month."

- Jason Winkler, Executive Vice President and CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
130 Risk Indicator

Margin Expansion

margin_expansion

Motorola Solutions expanded operating margins 130 basis points that resulted in our first-ever 30-plus annual operating margin.

"We expanded operating margins 130 basis points that resulted in our first-ever 30-plus annual operating margin."

- Gregory Brown - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
$2.8 billion Investor Focus

Record Cash Flow

record_cash_flow

Motorola Solutions achieved record operating cash flow of $2.8 billion, up 19%.

"We also achieved record operating cash flow of $2.8 billion, which was up 19%."

- Gregory Brown - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
%26 Investor Focus

Record Backlog

record_backlog

Motorola Solutions ended the year with a record backlog of $15.7 billion, up $1 billion year-over-year.

"We also grew orders by 26% and ended the year with our highest ever backlog of $15.7 billion, up $1 billion year-over-year."

- Gregory Brown - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
15,000 Investor Focus

Svx Adoption

svx_adoption

Motorola Solutions has shipped over 15,000 SVX devices since we launched, and we have a robust funnel of opportunities for the coming year.

"We've shipped over 15,000 SVX devices since we launched, and we have a robust funnel of opportunities for the coming year."

- Gregory Brown - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 69 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. Operating Leverage weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+33.7%)
Gross Margin5.0Q4: average margin (48.7%)
Operating Leverage3.0op margin healthy (26.0%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($1.1B, 10.0x CapEx)
R&D Intensity7.0balanced R&D investment (8.3%)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 47.3 balanced, 50d below
News Sentiment9.0strong buy consensus (86%)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +10.6%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 47
Klarman value - target upside +10.6%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +10.6%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
47.3 RSI 47.3 balanced, 50d below
MACD
-3.00 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$451 stock 3.0% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$430 stock 1.8% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-73% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$485
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$438
Pre-earnings position
Support
$366
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$366-$485 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Motorola beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q1 FY25
$3.18 vs $3.01 est - -7.5%
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$3.57 vs $3.35 est - +1.9%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$4.06 vs $3.85 est - -5.8%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$4.59 vs $4.35 est - +7.7%

Q4 (February 11, 2026): EPS $4.59 vs $4.35 est[FMP], +5.5% beat. D+1 movement: +7.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $3.15 (no guidance)

Q4: EPS $4.59 vs $4.35 beat[FMP], stock +7.7% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q4 CapEx $114.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 26.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $3.25 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $3.25[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $485[FMP target]; high target $506[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $3.25 + CapEx < $114.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $3.25[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $114.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $438[FMP] and median $485[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $3.15 or CapEx >= $114.0M
Threshold: EPS < $3.15[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $438 below SMA200 $430[FMP], if rejection continues, $366[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 3 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$485
12-month median target price (+10.6% upside potential)
12
BUY
2
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$366
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$451 - 50-day MA (below, -3.0%)
$430 - 200-day MA (above, +1.8%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - MSI Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $3.25[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $114.0M"[Jason Winkler]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).

3 subscriptions. 1 platform.

Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts

Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing

Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.

Try Pro free for 14 days MSI dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 7, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 8, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jun 21, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 7, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the MSI earnings preview cover?

This MSI (MSI) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in MSI earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.