2 analysts' median target is $1475[FMP target], stock is $1124, +31.2% upside potential. After Q4 +2.4% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -14.8%.
C+ = MoonshotScore 44[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $1.0B[FMP est], EPS $11.04[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q4 EPS +2.4% beat[FMP] but the stock -14.8% D+1[FMP D+1]. Shawn Vadala promised $17.4M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Shawn Vadala capex transcript].
Watchlist
Free Cash Flow Guidance
free_cash_flow_guidance
Mettler-Toledo expects free cash flow to be approximately $900 million in 2026, which is an increase of 5% on a per share basis.
"Free cash flow is expected to be approximately $900 million in 2026, which is an increase of 5% on a per share basis, with the first quarter approximately $100 million, which is impacted by the timing of tax payments."
- Shawn Vadala, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 6, 2026
2026 EPS Growth Guidance
2026_EPS_growth_guidance
Mettler-Toledo forecasts adjusted EPS to be in the range of $46.05 to $46.70 for the full year 2026, representing a growth rate of 8% to 9%.
"Adjusted EPS is forecast to be in the range of $46.05 to $46.70, which represents a growth rate of 8% to 9%."
- Shawn Vadala, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 6, 2026
2026 Sales Growth Guidance
2026_sales_growth_guidance
Mettler-Toledo forecasts local currency sales growth of approximately 4% for the full year 2026.
"For the full year 2026, our local currency sales growth forecast is unchanged at approximately 4% or approximately 3.5%, excluding our previously announced acquisitions."
- Shawn Vadala, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 6, 2026
Share Repurchase Guidance
share_repurchase_guidance
Mettler-Toledo expects share repurchases to be in the range of $825 million to $875 million in 2026.
"Share repurchases are expected to be in the range of $825 million to $875 million."
- Shawn Vadala, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 6, 2026
China Growth
china_growth
Mettler-Toledo's business in China grew 3%, led by good demand for industrial products from biopharma customers.
"Our business in China grew 3%, led by good demand for industrial products from biopharma customers."
- Patrick Kaltenbach, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 6, 2026
Tariff Impact
tariff_impact
Tariffs reduced Mettler-Toledo's operating profit by 7% and operating margin by 1.9% in 2025.
"We estimate the gross impact of tariffs reduced our operating profit by 7% and was a 190 basis point headwind to our operating margin."
- Shawn Vadala, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 6, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q4 (February 6, 2026): EPS $8.91 vs $8.70 est[FMP], +2.4% beat. D+1 movement: -14.8%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q4: EPS $8.91 vs $8.70 beat[FMP], stock -14.8% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.
Q4 CapEx $17.4M[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 26.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $11.04[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $17.4M"[Shawn Vadala]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This MTD (MTD) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.