Nasdaq, Inc.
NDAQ - NASDAQ - $89.00 ▼ -%2.52
-
Earnings Thu 23 Jul

Nasdaq opens the
books on Thursday evening.

2 analysts' median target is $115[FMP target], stock is $89, +29.2% upside potential. After Q1 +3.2% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +3.3%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
BUY Council 5/6 - Moonshot 56

B = MoonshotScore 56[9-pillar formula] + Council 5/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $1.4B[FMP est], EPS $0.95[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$0.95 EPS Estimate Last year $0.96 - +12% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q1 EPS +3.2% beat[FMP] but the stock +3.3% D+1[FMP D+1]. Sarah Youngwood promised $60.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Sarah Youngwood capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

$2.485 billion Expectation / Guide

Expense Guidance Increase

expense_guidance_increase

Nasdaq is updating its non-GAAP expense guidance for the year to a range of $2.485 billion to $2.545 billion from $2.455 billion to $2.535 billion, given the strong revenue performance we have experienced year-to-date.

"We are updating our non-GAAP expense guidance for the year to a range of $2.485 billion to $2.545 billion from $2.455 billion to $2.535 billion. given the strong revenue performance we have experienced year-to-date."

- Sarah Youngwood - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
12% Investor Focus

Arr Growth

arr_growth

Nasdaq's overall annualized recurring revenue, or ARR, grew 12% year-over-year to $3.2 billion.

"Our overall annualized recurring revenue, or ARR, grew 12% year-over-year to $3.2 billion."

- Adena Friedman - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
2021 Investor Focus

Q1 Organic Growth

q1_organic_growth

Nasdaq delivered the highest Q1 organic growth since 2021 across net revenue, solutions revenue, and operating income.

"We delivered the highest Q1 organic growth since 2021 across net revenue solutions revenue and operating income as well as our highest ever quarterly revenue growth in the Financial Technology division."

- Adena Friedman - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
50% Investor Focus

Acv Bookings Growth

acv_bookings_growth

The Financial Technology division sustained compelling land and expand momentum, driving more than 50% year-over-year growth in ACV bookings while supporting clients transition to cloud.

"The division sustained compelling land and expand momentum, driving more than 50% year-over-year growth in ACV bookings. while supporting clients transition to cloud."

- Adena Friedman - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
$79 billion Investor Focus

Etp Inflows

etp_inflows

Following $6 billion in inflows in Q1 2026, momentum is seen in Q2 with $15 billion of net ETP inflows as of April 20.

"ETP AUM reflected $79 billion in net inflows over the last 12 months, including $6 billion in the first quarter. As Adena said, we are encouraged by the momentum of ETP inflows we are experiencing earlier in the second quarter with $15 billion of net inflows as of April 20."

- Sarah Youngwood - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 56 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth1.0Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+2.2%, below threshold)
Gross Margin7.0Q1: very high margin (65.8%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage3.0op margin very strong (30.7%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.6B, 10.5x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 52.0 balanced, 50d above
News Sentiment8.0strong buy consensus (82%)
Council Score 5 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 5 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +29.2%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 52
Klarman value - target upside +29.2%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +29.2%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
52.0 RSI 52.0 balanced, 50d above
MACD
+2.40 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$87 stock 2.4% above - short-term support
200d MA
$91 stock 1.7% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+47% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$115
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$89
Pre-earnings position
Support
$77
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$77-$115 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Nasdaq, beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$0.85 vs $0.81 est - +1.4%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$0.88 vs $0.85 est - -3.2%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$0.96 vs $0.92 est - -1.2%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$0.96 vs $0.93 est - +3.3%

Q1 (April 23, 2026): EPS $0.96 vs $0.93 est[FMP], +3.2% beat. D+1 movement: +3.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $0.92 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $0.96 vs $0.93 beat[FMP], stock +3.3% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $60.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 30.7%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $0.95 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $0.95[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $115[FMP target]; high target $120[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $0.95 + CapEx < $60.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $0.95[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $60.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $89[FMP] and median $115[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $0.92 or CapEx >= $60.0M
Threshold: EPS < $0.92[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $89 below SMA200 $91[FMP], if rejection continues, $77[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 2 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$115
12-month median target price (+29.2% upside potential)
14
BUY
3
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$77
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$87 - 50-day MA (above, +2.4%)
$91 - 200-day MA (below, -1.7%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - NDAQ Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $0.95[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $60.0M"[Sarah Youngwood]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days NDAQ dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 23, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 24, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 6, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 23, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the NDAQ earnings preview cover?

This NDAQ (NDAQ) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in NDAQ earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.