8 analysts' median target is $620[FMP target], stock is $549, +12.9% upside potential. After Q2 +12.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +2.5%.
A- = MoonshotScore 44[multi-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $11.1B[FMP est], EPS $7.13[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q2 EPS +12.6% beat[FMP] but the stock +2.5% D+1[FMP D+1]. John Greene promised $302.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q2 earnings call[John Greene capex transcript].
Watchlist
Fy26 Sales Eps Guidance
fy26_sales_eps_guidance
The company raised its FY2026 sales guidance to a midpoint of $44 billion, representing over 5% organic growth, and increased EPS estimates by $1.20, driven by strong Q2 results and accelerating momentum.
"Based on our strong Q2 results and accelerating momentum, we are increasing our financial guidance for 2026. Robust bookings are continuing, and we now expect a full year book-to-bill ratio of at least 1.25 times. Sales are now projected at $44 billion at the midpoint, which is over 5% organic growth. We are maintaining our expectations for segment margin performance, and we raised EPS estimates by $1.20."
- Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO, and President - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 21, 2026
Capex Production Capacity
capex_production_capacity
Northrop Grumman plans continued infrastructure investments, expecting $1.85 billion in CapEx for 2026 and around 4.5% of sales in 2027 and 2028 to support the B-21 production ramp.
"We continue to expect $1.85 billion of CapEx in 2026. As we previously shared, we expect CapEx investments of around 4.5% of sales in 2027 and 2028 as we invest in infrastructure to support the B-21 production ramp."
- John Greene, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 21, 2026
Record Backlog Book To Bill
record_backlog_book_to_bill
Northrop Grumman achieved a record high backlog of $105 billion and expects a full year book-to-bill ratio of at least 1.25x, driven by strong Q2 results and accelerating momentum.
"We delivered $20 billion in net awards in the quarter, driving a book-to-bill ratio of 1.84 times. Backlog continues to grow, including a new record high of $105 billion. We expect continued strong bookings for the remainder of the year, as well as increased momentum in government outlays. These dynamics strengthen our confidence and outlook for accelerating sales growth in the second half of the year. ... Robust bookings are continuing, and we now expect a full year book-to-bill ratio of at least 1.25 times."
- Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO, and President - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 21, 2026
Tactical Missile Strategy
tactical_missile_strategy
The company is strengthening its tactical missile strategy by qualifying as a supplier for PAC-3 and securing a $2 billion framework agreement with the DoD, with 10 multi-year missile acceleration agreements offering up to $10 billion in sales opportunities over the next seven years.
"Last month, we completed qualification activities to become a supplier on PAC-3, and we reached a $2 billion framework agreement with the Department of Defense and Lockheed Martin. We expect the PAC-3 SRM production award later this year. In total, we have 10 multi-year agreements for missile acceleration in work across the portfolio with up to $10 billion of sales opportunity over the next seven years."
- Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO, and President - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 21, 2026
Sentinel Program Progress
sentinel_program_progress
The Sentinel program achieved significant progress, adding $7.6 billion to the program backlog and expecting the first flight of the integrated missile in 2027.
"We continue to make progress on the Sentinel program in partnership with the Air Force. This led to further definitization and authorization for us to execute additional elements of the program plan, resulting in a $7.6 billion increase in program backlog. During the second quarter, we achieved contract incentives, which improved overall profitability and delivered program milestones as scheduled. ... first flight of the integrated missile, which is expected in 2027."
- Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO, and President - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 21, 2026
International Demand Wins
international_demand_wins
Northrop Grumman is capitalizing on increased global defense spending with significant international agreements, including Triton aircraft for NATO, IBCS systems for Kuwait, and a solid rocket motor manufacturing facility in Australia.
"At the NATO summit a few weeks ago, our allies pledged $50 billion in additional investments, including a commitment for Northrop Grumman's Triton autonomous aircraft. In the Middle East, modern missile defense systems remain an essential priority for ensuring national security. Momentum continues to build in numerous countries to acquire our IBCS system, which is proven and operational today. This includes Kuwait, who in May received authorization from the State Department for six IBCS systems. In Australia, we were selected to establish an in-country solid rocket motor manufacturing facility."
- Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO, and President - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 21, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
multi-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q2 (July 21, 2026): EPS $7.68 vs $6.82 est[FMP], +12.6% beat. D+1 movement: +2.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q2: EPS $7.68 vs $6.82 beat[FMP], stock +2.5% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Q2 CapEx $302.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 10.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $7.13[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $302.0M"[John Greene]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
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Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.