4 analysts' median target is $750[FMP target], stock is $555, +35.0% upside potential. After Q1 +1.3% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -3.5%.
B+ = MoonshotScore 26[9-pillar formula] + Council 5/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $10.8B[FMP est], EPS $6.81[FMP est]. 4 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +1.3% beat[FMP] but the stock -3.5% D+1[FMP D+1]. John Green promised $167.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[John Green capex transcript].
Watchlist
Capex Increase B21
capex_increase_b21
Northrop Grumman will invest an additional $200 million in 2026 to support increased production capacity on B-21, bringing 2026 capital expenditures to $1.85 billion.
"This includes an additional $200 million we expect to invest this year to support the increased production capacity on B-21. As a result, we now expect $1.85 billion in 2026 capital expenditures."
- John Green, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
Missile Defense Growth
missile_defense_growth
Northrop Grumman's missile defense business accounts for nearly 10% of company sales and is well positioned to capitalize on opportunities such as Golden Dome.
"Demand in this area has been exceptionally strong, and today, our missile defense business accounts for nearly 10% of company sales. Northrop Grumman Corporation is well positioned to capitalize on opportunities such as Golden Dome, as well as other program areas."
- Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO and President - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
Srm Market Growth
srm_market_growth
Northrop Grumman's weapons business is nearing 10% of total company sales and is positioned to grow at a pace well above the company average.
"Overall, our weapons business is nearing 10% of total company sales and is positioned to grow at a pace well above the company average."
- Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO and President - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
Organic Sales Growth
organic_sales_growth
Northrop Grumman reported a 5% organic sales increase in Q1, driven by modernization projects.
"First quarter organic sales were up 5%, a great start to the year and consistent with our full year expectations."
- Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO and President - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
B21 Production Increase
b21_production_increase
Northrop Grumman finalized an agreement with the Air Force to increase the annual production rate of the B-21 by 25%, enhancing the program's long-term economics.
"As previously announced, we finalized an agreement with the Air Force to increase the annual production rate of the B-21 by 25%. This agreement demonstrates the strong operational requirements for the platform and confidence in our team to accelerate the delivery of this generation capability for the warfighter."
- Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO and President - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
Defense Budget Increase
defense_budget_increase
The U.S. fiscal year 2027 defense budget request increased by 44% to $1.5 trillion, emphasizing modernization.
"Earlier this month, the administration submitted a $1.5 trillion defense budget request for fiscal year 2027. The budget emphasizes modernization and represents a 44% increase over current funding levels."
- Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO and President - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. - strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 5 bullish (Ray Dalio, Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 0 neutral (none).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (April 21, 2026): EPS $6.14 vs $6.06 est[FMP], +1.3% beat. D+1 movement: -3.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $6.14 vs $6.06 beat[FMP], stock -3.5% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $167.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 10.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $6.81[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $167.0M"[John Green]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This NOC (NOC) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.