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Northrop Grumman Corporation
NOC - NYSE - $549.22 ▲ +%0.30
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Earnings
Tue 20 Oct
Northrop opens the
books on Tuesday evening.
8 analysts' median target is $620[FMP target], stock is $549, +12.9% vs the analyst consensus median. After Q2 +12.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +2.5%.
↓
summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A-
HOLD
Council 3/6
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Moonshot 44
A- = MoonshotScore 44[multi-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Quick AnswerNorthrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)
Q1 consensus: revenue $11.1B[FMP est], EPS $7.13[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
$7.13
EPS Estimate
Last year $6.14 - -7% YoY YoY
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Aeronautics Guidance
Previous quarter was 0%
5
Beat Streak
Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 5 quarters
Q2 EPS +12.6% beat[FMP] but the stock +2.5% D+1[FMP D+1].
Fy26 Sales Eps Guidance
fy26_sales_eps_guidance
The company raised its FY2026 sales guidance to a midpoint of $44 billion, representing over 5% organic growth, and increased EPS estimates by $1.20, driven by strong Q2 results and accelerating momentum.
"Based on our strong Q2 results and accelerating momentum, we are increasing our financial guidance for 2026. Robust bookings are continuing, and we now expect a full year book-to-bill ratio of at least 1.25 times. Sales are now projected at $44 billion at the midpoint, which is over 5% organic growth. We are maintaining our expectations for segment margin performance, and we raised EPS estimates by $1.20."
- Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO, and President - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 21, 2026
$1.85 billion
Risk Indicator
Capex Production Capacity
capex_production_capacity
Northrop Grumman plans continued infrastructure investments, expecting $1.85 billion in CapEx for 2026 and around 4.5% of sales in 2027 and 2028 to support the B-21 production ramp.
"We continue to expect $1.85 billion of CapEx in 2026. As we previously shared, we expect CapEx investments of around 4.5% of sales in 2027 and 2028 as we invest in infrastructure to support the B-21 production ramp."
- John Greene, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 21, 2026
$20 billion
Investor Focus
Record Backlog Book To Bill
record_backlog_book_to_bill
Northrop Grumman achieved a record high backlog of $105 billion and expects a full year book-to-bill ratio of at least 1.25x, driven by strong Q2 results and accelerating momentum.
"We delivered $20 billion in net awards in the quarter, driving a book-to-bill ratio of 1.84 times. Backlog continues to grow, including a new record high of $105 billion. We expect continued strong bookings for the remainder of the year, as well as increased momentum in government outlays. These dynamics strengthen our confidence and outlook for accelerating sales growth in the second half of the year. ... Robust bookings are continuing, and we now expect a full year book-to-bill ratio of at least 1.25 times."
- Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO, and President - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 21, 2026
$2 billion
Investor Focus
Tactical Missile Strategy
tactical_missile_strategy
The company is strengthening its tactical missile strategy by qualifying as a supplier for PAC-3 and securing a $2 billion framework agreement with the DoD, with 10 multi-year missile acceleration agreements offering up to $10 billion in sales opportunities over the next seven years.
"Last month, we completed qualification activities to become a supplier on PAC-3, and we reached a $2 billion framework agreement with the Department of Defense and Lockheed Martin. We expect the PAC-3 SRM production award later this year. In total, we have 10 multi-year agreements for missile acceleration in work across the portfolio with up to $10 billion of sales opportunity over the next seven years."
- Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO, and President - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 21, 2026
$7.6 billion
Investor Focus
Sentinel Program Progress
sentinel_program_progress
The Sentinel program achieved significant progress, adding $7.6 billion to the program backlog and expecting the first flight of the integrated missile in 2027.
"We continue to make progress on the Sentinel program in partnership with the Air Force. This led to further definitization and authorization for us to execute additional elements of the program plan, resulting in a $7.6 billion increase in program backlog. During the second quarter, we achieved contract incentives, which improved overall profitability and delivered program milestones as scheduled. ... first flight of the integrated missile, which is expected in 2027."
- Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO, and President - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 21, 2026
$50 billion
Investor Focus
International Demand Wins
international_demand_wins
Northrop Grumman is capitalizing on increased global defense spending with significant international agreements, including Triton aircraft for NATO, IBCS systems for Kuwait, and a solid rocket motor manufacturing facility in Australia.
"At the NATO summit a few weeks ago, our allies pledged $50 billion in additional investments, including a commitment for Northrop Grumman's Triton autonomous aircraft. In the Middle East, modern missile defense systems remain an essential priority for ensuring national security. Momentum continues to build in numerous countries to acquire our IBCS system, which is proven and operational today. This includes Kuwait, who in May received authorization from the State Department for six IBCS systems. In Australia, we were selected to establish an in-country solid rocket motor manufacturing facility."
- Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO, and President - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 21, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?
MoonshotScore
44 / 100
multi-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth2.0
Q2 vs Q3: moderate growth (+4.3%)
Gross Margin2.0
Q2: low margin (19.5%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage1.0
op margin average (10.1%)
Cash Runway10.0
FCF very strong ($1.0B, 3.2x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0
low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0
RSI 58.0 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment6.0
majority buy (61%)
Council Score
3 / 6 Bullish
6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +12.9%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 58
Klarman value - target upside +12.9%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +12.9%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued
Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->
Interest CoverageAdequate
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning
What levels is the stock being tested at?
RSI(14)
58.0
RSI 58.0 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+2.40
price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$536
stock 2.4% above - short-term support
200d MA
$608
stock 9.6% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-34%
decrease - low participation
Resistance
$620
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$549
Pre-earnings position
Support
$517
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$517-$620 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger
Past Performance
Northrop's last 8 quarters: 5 consecutive beats.
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$7.67 vs $6.44 est - -0.5%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$7.23 vs $6.98 est - +1.5%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$6.14 vs $6.06 est - -3.5%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$7.68 vs $6.82 est - +2.5%
Q2 (July 21, 2026): EPS $7.68 vs $6.82 est[FMP], +12.6% beat. D+1 movement: +2.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Three scenarios: what could happen?
EPS < $6.92 (no guidance)
Q2: EPS $7.68 vs $6.82 beat[FMP], stock +2.5% D+1[FMP].
"-"
- John Greene, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 21, 2026
Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Insider trading signal
Form 4 data is marked in the table - this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
Our FMP plan does not provide Form 4 insider feed for this stock. This page does not generate assumptions - SEC EDGAR Form 4 can be monitored directly.
CapEx shock
Q2 CapEx $302.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 10.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
"-"
- John Greene, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 21, 2026
Framework - Position discipline
After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $7.13 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $7.13[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $620[FMP target]; high target $785[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $7.13 + CapEx < $302.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $7.13[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $302.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $549[FMP] and median $620[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $6.92 or CapEx >= $302.0M
Threshold: EPS < $6.92[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $549 below SMA200 $608[FMP], if rejection continues, $517[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.
Market Outlook
What do 8 analysts say?
Wall Street Consensus
$620
12-month median target price (+12.9% gap to the analyst consensus median)
Risk Management
$517
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$536 - 50-day MA (above, +2.4%)
$608 - 200-day MA (below, -9.6%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - NOC Q1 FY27
A-
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $7.13[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $302.0M". Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison
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Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI is free today — no credit card. Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look
Oct 20, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Oct 21, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Dec 4, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Jan 20, 2027EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the NOC earnings preview cover?
This Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
What should investors watch for in NOC earnings?
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Where do the numbers on this page come from?
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
Is this a buy or sell recommendation?
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.