Content generated by AI editorial engine. Written by Stock Expert AI's research desk with AI assistance. Figures come from FMP data and the official sources cited in the article.
Norfolk Southern Corporation
NSC - NYSE - $329.99(as of )▼ -2.44%
-
EarningsThu 4 Feb
Norfolk opens the books on Thursday evening.
The median of 5 price targets is $3581, stock is $330, +8.5% vs the analyst consensus median.
5Beat StreakExpectations beaten consecutively for the last 5 quarters
Q3 FY26 EPS $3.62 vs $3.46 estimate: beat (+4.6%)1. Stock move on the next trading day: -2.4%1.
Next report
What to watch in Q4 FY26 (Feb 4, 2027)
EPS: consensus $3.27, against $3.22 in the same quarter a year ago (+2%).
Revenue: consensus $3.5B.
Watchlist
6 metrics stand out this quarter.
$9 billion
Expectation / Guide
Fy26 Opex Guidance
Full-year adjusted OpEx guidance was raised to just north of $9 billion, including about $700 million of incremental fuel expense.
Mark George, CEO - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - October 22, 2026
$2.1 billion
Risk Indicator
Capex Increase 2026
The 2026 CapEx outlook was raised to roughly $2.1 billion from $1.9 billion originally.
Mark George, CEO - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - October 22, 2026
1-2 years
Investor Focus
Truck To Rail Gains Temporary
The CEO said much of the fuel-driven highway-to-rail share gain may revert within a year or two, making the merger the key to making it permanent.
"A large portion of what we have gained will eventually, and it might take a year or 2, but it will eventually go back to the highway unless this industry does some very structurally different things"
- Mark George, CEO - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - October 22, 2026
14%
Investor Focus
Q3 Revenue Growth Record
Q3 revenue grew 14% including fuel surcharge, and revenue less fuel rose 6% to an all-time record.
Ed Elkins, Chief Commercial Officer - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - October 22, 2026
65.4%
Investor Focus
Q3 Adjusted Operating Ratio Eps
Norfolk Southern reported a Q3 adjusted operating ratio of 65.4% and EPS of $3.62.
Jason Zampi, CFO - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - October 22, 2026
250 basis points
Investor Focus
Fuel Impact On Operating Ratio
Rising fuel prices during the quarter hurt the Q3 operating ratio by about 250 basis points versus expectations.
Jason Zampi, CFO - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - October 22, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Do our scoring pillars, 6 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$267-$358 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger
Past Performance
4 quarters shown.
BEATQ4 FY25
$3.22 vs $2.76 est · Next-day price move: +0.4%
BEATQ1 FY26
$2.65 vs $2.49 est · Next-day price move: -0.3%
BEATQ2 FY26
$3.52 vs $3.32 est · Next-day price move: +0.6%
BEATQ3 FY26
$3.62 vs $3.46 est · Next-day price move: -2.4%
Three scenarios: what could happen?
EPS < $3.17 (no guidance)
"-"
- Jason Zampi, CFO - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - October 22, 2026
Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q3 earnings call.
Insider trading signal
Form 4 data is marked in the table - this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
ExecutiveActionAmountDate
Our FMP plan does not provide Form 4 insider feed for this stock. This page does not generate assumptions - SEC EDGAR Form 4 can be monitored directly.
CapEx shock
Q3 CapEx $586.0M1. Q3 op margin 32.6%1 - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Framework - Position discipline
After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $3.27 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $3.271. Target: Break above median target $3581; high target $4001 upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $3.27 + CapEx < $586.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $3.271, Q4 CapEx < $586.0M1. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $3301 and median $3581.
What do analysts say? 5 price targets · 21 ratings
Wall Street Consensus
$358
12-month median target price (+8.5% gap to the analyst consensus median)
5
BUY
16
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$267
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$327 - 50-day MA (above, +1.0%) $314 - 200-day MA (above, +5.2%) IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - NSC Q4 FY26
B-
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $3.271, CapEx threshold "below $586.0M". Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison
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Feb 5, 2027PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Mar 1, 2027 – Mar 31, 2027FILING10-K due within 60–90 days of fiscal year end (by Mar 1, 2027 – Mar 31, 2027); the exact deadline depends on filer status
~May 7, 2027EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the NSC Q4 FY26 earnings preview cover?
This Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) Q4 FY26 earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
What should investors watch for in NSC Q4 FY26 earnings?
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Where do the numbers on this page come from?
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
Is this a buy or sell recommendation?
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.
