Nucor Corporation
NUE - NYSE - $232.07 ▲ +%2.77
-
Earnings Mon 27 Jul

Nucor opens the
books on Monday evening.

5 analysts' median target is $230[FMP target], stock is $232, -1.1% upside potential. After Q1 +14.5% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +4.7%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A-
SELL Council 2/6 - Moonshot 40

A- = MoonshotScore 40[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $10.0B[FMP est], EPS $4.12[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$4.12 EPS Estimate Last year $1.73 - +58% YoY YoY
1 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters

Q1 EPS +14.5% beat[FMP] but the stock +4.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. Jack Sullivan promised $661.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Jack Sullivan capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

4.7 million Investor Focus

Steel Mills Backlog Increase

steel_mills_backlog_increase

Nucor's steel mills backlog increased 20% from year-end to 4.7 million tons, the highest level since Q2 2021.

"At the end of the first quarter, our steel mills backlog was up to 4.7 million tons, a 20% increase from year-end and the highest level we've seen since the second quarter of 2021."

- Leon Topalian, Chair and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
6% Expectation / Guide

Shipments Growth Expectation

shipments_growth_expectation

After achieving approximately 6% growth of shipments in 2025, Nucor expects shipments to grow by more than 5% in 2026.

"After achieving approximately 6% growth of shipments in 2025, we expect shipments to grow by more than 5% in 2026."

- Unknown Executive - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
22% Investor Focus

Import Share Decline

import_share_decline

Import share of the U.S. finished steel market declined from over 22% in Q1 2025 to approximately 15% this quarter.

"Import share of the U.S. finished steel market declined from over 22% in the first quarter of 2025 to approximately 15% this quarter."

- Leon Topalian, Chair and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
7 million Investor Focus

Record Steel Shipments

record_steel_shipments

Nucor achieved record quarterly steel mill shipments of 7 million tons.

"At 7 million tons, this was the highest quarterly shipment volume in Nucor's history, reflecting strong execution across our 26 steel mills and growing contributions from recently completed projects."

- Leon Topalian, Chair and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
2% Expectation / Guide

Domestic Steel Consumption Outlook

domestic_steel_consumption_outlook

Nucor expects domestic steel consumption to be stable with overall demand remaining flat to up 2% for 2026.

"Taken as a whole, we expect domestic steel consumption to be stable with overall demand remaining flat to up 2% for 2026."

- Unknown Executive - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 40 / 100

9-pillar methodology. News Sentiment strong. Gross Margin weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth6.0Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+12.3%)
Gross Margin2.0Q1: low margin (15.8%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (11.5%)
Cash Runway5.0FCF under pressure ($0.2B FCF vs $0.7B CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 85.2 overbought, 50d above
News Sentiment7.0strong buy consensus (73%)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ken Griffin, Buffett), 3 bearish (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger), 1 neutral (Ray Dalio).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside -1.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 85
Klarman value - target upside -1.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside -1.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Overvalued

Quality business, but price is high.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
85.2 RSI 85.2 overbought, 50d above
MACD
+26.10 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$184 stock 26.1% above - short-term support
200d MA
$162 stock 43.6% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-23% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$230
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$232
Pre-earnings position
Support
$137
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$137-$230 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Nucor's last 8 quarters: 1 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$2.60 vs $2.55 est - -2.7%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.63 vs $2.18 est - +5.4%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$1.73 vs $1.91 est - -2.3%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$3.23 vs $2.82 est - +4.7%

Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $3.23 vs $2.82 est[FMP], +14.5% beat. D+1 movement: +4.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $4.00 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $3.23 vs $2.82 beat[FMP], stock +4.7% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $661.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 11.5%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $4.12 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $4.12[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $230[FMP target]; high target $245[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $4.12 + CapEx < $661.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $4.12[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $661.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $232[FMP] and median $230[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $4.00 or CapEx >= $661.0M
Threshold: EPS < $4.00[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $232 below SMA200 $162[FMP], if rejection continues, $137[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 5 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$230
12-month median target price (-1.1% upside potential)
11
BUY
3
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$137
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$184 - 50-day MA (above, +26.1%)
$162 - 200-day MA (above, +43.6%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - NUE Q4 FY26
A-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Monday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Monday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $4.12[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $661.0M"[Jack Sullivan]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 27, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 28, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 10, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 27, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the NUE earnings preview cover?

This NUE (NUE) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in NUE earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.