Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
ODFL - NASDAQ - $196.08 ▲ +%2.03
-
Earnings Wed 29 Jul

Old opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

12 analysts' median target is $218[FMP target], stock is $196, +10.9% upside potential. After Q1 +8.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +1.5%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
HOLD Council 2/6 - Moonshot 37

B+ = MoonshotScore 37[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $1.5B[FMP est], EPS $1.41[FMP est]. 3 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.41 EPS Estimate Last year $1.09 - +11% YoY YoY
3 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 3 quarters

Q1 EPS +8.6% beat[FMP] but the stock +1.5% D+1[FMP D+1]. Adam Satterfield promised $45.8M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Adam Satterfield capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

300 Expectation / Guide

Operating Ratio Q2 Guidance

operating_ratio_Q2_guidance

The company expects an operating ratio in the normal sequential range (300 to 350 basis point improvement) in the second quarter, assuming that it sees some sequential improvement in its volumes.

"The 10-year average change for the operating ratio was a 300 to 350 basis point improvement from the first to the second quarter. And we're comfortable with that range in the second quarter this year, assuming that we do see some sequential improvement in our volumes from here."

- Adam Satterfield, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
$265 million Investor Focus

Capital Expenditures 2026

capital_expenditures_2026

The company plans to invest an additional $265 million in 2026.

"This is why, despite a challenging operating environment, we invested nearly $2 billion capital expenditures over the past 3 years and why we plan to invest an additional $265 million in 2026."

- Marty Freeman, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
35% Investor Focus

Terminal Capacity

terminal_capacity

The company's terminal capacity being north of 35% presents an opportunity to improve the operating ratio with sequential volume improvement.

"Yes. We're still a little north of 35% because our volumes are still down on a year-over-year basis, and obviously, this is the slower time of the year in the first quarter. But that's something that we continue to see as an opportunity and will drive part of that operating ratio improvement, is we can continue to see sequential volume improvement and then leveraging those fixed costs, those investments that we've made and the depreciation headwind that we've been facing."

- Adam Satterfield, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
1% Investor Focus

Weight Per Shipment Increase

weight_per_shipment_increase

In April, there has been an increase in weight per shipment on a year-over-year basis of a little over 1%, which is a leading indicator of an improving demand environment.

"And in fact, in April, our weight per shipment is up on a year-over-year basis, a little over 1%. So that's usually a leading indicator of an improving demand environment."

- Adam Satterfield, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 37 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-5.2%, contraction)
Gross Margin3.0Q1: low margin (27.7%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (23.8%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.3B, 5.8x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 41.1 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment4.0mixed (36% buy)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +10.9%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 41
Klarman value - target upside +10.9%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +10.9%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
41.1 RSI 41.1 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-2.50 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$201 stock 2.5% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$166 stock 18.0% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-21% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$218
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$196
Pre-earnings position
Support
$141
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$141-$218 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Old's last 8 quarters: 3 consecutive beats.

MISS
Q2 FY25
$1.27 vs $1.28 est - +1.9%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.28 vs $1.22 est - +0.8%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.09 vs $1.06 est - -3.1%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.14 vs $1.05 est - +1.5%

Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $1.14 vs $1.05 est[FMP], +8.6% beat. D+1 movement: +1.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.37 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $1.14 vs $1.05 beat[FMP], stock +1.5% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $45.8M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 23.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.41 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.41[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $218[FMP target]; high target $240[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.41 + CapEx < $45.8M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.41[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $45.8M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $196[FMP] and median $218[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.37 or CapEx >= $45.8M
Threshold: EPS < $1.37[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $196 below SMA200 $166[FMP], if rejection continues, $141[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 12 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$218
12-month median target price (+10.9% upside potential)
9
BUY
13
HOLD
3
SELL
Risk Management
$141
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$201 - 50-day MA (below, -2.5%)
$166 - 200-day MA (above, +18.0%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - ODFL Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.41[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $45.8M"[Adam Satterfield]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 29, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 30, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 12, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 29, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the ODFL earnings preview cover?

This ODFL (ODFL) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in ODFL earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.